BUILDING A LOW CARBON FUTURE FOR CONNECTICUT ACHIEVING A 45% GHG REDUCTION BY 2030 RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE GOVERNOR’S COUNCIL ON CLIMATE CHANGE DECEMBER 18, 2018 Page left blank intentionally TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .............................................................. i Recommendations and Suite of Strategies .................................. 18 GHG Emissions Reduction Recommendations and Suite of Put a price on Carbon ............................................................... 18 Strategies ............................................................................iv Expand consumer education and awareness efforts to increase Introduction ........................................................................ 1 the uptake of zero- and low-carbon technology measures ..... 19 The Science of Climate Change ...................................................... 1 Pursue an integrated approach to GHG mitigation, adaptation, and resiliency ........................................................................... 21 The Cost of Inaction ....................................................................... 3 Electric Sector .................................................................... 22 Leadership & Demonstration ......................................................... 5 Recommendations and Suite of Strategies .................................. 22 Connecticut’s GHG Reduction Path ............................................... 8 Commit at least 50 megawatts of demand reduction per year Governor’s Council on Climate Change............................... 10 to the ISO-New England forward-capacity market .................. 22 Executive Order No. 46 ................................................................ 10 Achieve at least 66% zero-carbon energy generation by 2030 23 Meetings, Process, and Accomplishments to Date...................... 10 Optimize grid management strategies to reduce carbon Mid-term Target ........................................................................... 11 emissions .................................................................................. 25 GHG Emission Reduction Analysis ...................................... 12 Transportation Sector ........................................................ 26 Economy-wide Projections of GHG Emissions — The Business-as- Recommendations and Suite of Strategies .................................. 26 Usual Scenario .............................................................................. 12 Maintain increasing fuel economy and low- and zero-emissions GHG Mitigation Scenarios ............................................................ 13 standards .................................................................................. 26 Economic and Fiscal Impact of Achieving the 2030 Target ......... 14 Increase light-duty ZEV penetration rate to at least 20% by 2030 ......................................................................................... 28 GHG Emissions Reduction Recommendations and Strategies .......................................................................... 15 Develop sustainable funding for transportation electrification and transit infrastructure ......................................................... 32 Introduction ................................................................................. 15 Building Sector ................................................................... 34 Roles and Responsibilities ............................................................ 16 Recommendations and Suite of Strategies .................................. 34 Cross Sector ...................................................................... 18 TABLE OF CONTENTS GOVERNOR’S COUNCIL ON CLIMATE CHANGE Accelerate adoption of building thermal energy conservation Department of Insurance improvements such as weatherization, insulation, efficient Department of Transportation windows, and HVAC ................................................................. 34 Institute for Sustainable Energy at Eastern Connecticut State Transition building fossil fuel thermal loads to efficient University renewable thermal technologies ............................................. 36 Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management Improve training and technical capacity of workforce ............ 38 Office of Policy and Management Non-energy GHG Emissions ............................................... 39 Public Utilities Regulatory Authority Connecticut’s Non-Energy Sector GHG Commitments ................ 39 The Hartford Stanley McMillen, Ph.D., Consultant Appendices ....................................................................... 41 Appendix A: Executive Order Number 46 ................................ 41 Lead Authors Appendix B: Members of the Governor’s Council on Climate Keri Enright-Kato, Director, Connecticut Department of Energy & Change ..................................................................................... 43 Environmental Protection Appendix C: Connecticut Business-As-Usual Case ................... 44 Jeff Howard, Environmental Analyst, Connecticut Department of Appendix D: Technology & Measures ...................................... 46 Energy & Environmental Protection Jeremy Hunt, Research Analyst, Connecticut Department of Energy & Environmental Protection CREDITS The development, analysis and writing of this report included input IMAGES from the following state agencies, businesses and organizations: Electric truck, Gonzalo Bravo Connecticut Fund for the Environment Electric car, Nicholas DeForest Connecticut Green Bank House, Alexander Skowalsky Connecticut Institute for Resilience and Climate Adaptation Commercial Building, LAFS Connecticut Round Table on Climate and Jobs Buildings, Laurene Smith Department of Administration Electric leaf bolt, Curve Department of Economic and Community Development Department of Energy and Environmental Protection Department of Housing TABLE OF CONTENTS GOVERNOR’S COUNCIL ON CLIMATE CHANGE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the greenhouse gas (GHG) that represents accelerate mitigation and adaptation efforts to reduce the risks and the greatest warming potential, due to its atmospheric abundance impacts associated with a 1.5-2°C (2.7-3.6°F) increase in global and long atmospheric lifetime (hundreds to thousands of years).1 temperature from pre-industrial levels. The global CO2 concentration has surpassed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level higher than at any time in the last 3 million years. Moreover, the recently released Fourth National Climate Since the start of the 20th century, the Earth has warmed 1°C (1.8oF) Assessment, Volume II draws a direct connection between the since the pre-industrial period2; and the last four years have been warming atmosphere and the resulting changes that affect lives, the warmest years on record. The Intergovernmental Panel on communities, and livelihoods. The impacts of observed warming are Climate Change (IPCC) recently released a Special Report on Global already being felt in the United States and are projected to intensify o Warming of 1.5 C, stating that there is high confidence that “global in the future. The severity of future impacts will depend largely on o warming is likely to reach 1.5°C (2.7 F) between 2030 and 2052 if it actions taken to reduce GHG emissions and our ability to integrate 3 continues to increase at the current rate.” The last time climate adaptation strategies into existing investments, policies, and temperatures were 1-2oC (1.8-3.6°F) higher than they are now — practices.4 some 125,000 years ago — sea levels were 5-6 meters (16-19 feet) higher. A 1.5°C (2.7oF) change in temperature will also have With over 600 miles of coastline and 2.2 million people living in devastating impacts on ecosystems, water supplies, human health, shoreline communities in Connecticut, the State’s residents and and socioeconomic sectors. communities are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of weather and climate events. Connecticut residents are already beginning to The IPCC Special Report notes that if anthropogenic GHG emissions experience such effects as climate change ramps up. For instance, in stopped today, the 1.5oC (2.7oF) limit would not be exceeded, but Connecticut alone, Hurricane Irene (2011) caused power outages global emissions to date “will persist for centuries to millennia.” The affecting 754,000 customers and over $1 billion in damage, and clear and sober findings of this report deepen our urgency to Hurricane Sandy (2012) caused power outages affecting more than 1 Why does CO2 get most of the attention when there are so many other heat-trapping gases? related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global Union of Concerned Scientists. August 3, 2017. Retrieved from response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/science/CO2-and-global- poverty. warming-faq.html#bf-toc-1 4 Jay, A., D.R. Reidmiller, C.W. Avery, D. Barrie, B.J. DeAngelo, A. Dave, M. Dzaugis, M. Kolian, 2 Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, B. DeAngelo, S. Doherty, K. Hayhoe, R. Horton, J.P. K.L.M. Lewis, K. Reeves, and D. Winner, 2018: Overview. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in Kossin, P.C. Taylor, A.M. Waple, and C.P. Weaver, 2017: Executive summary. In: Climate the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Science