A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Wenke, Martin Conference Paper Regional Unemployment Migration and Commuting - The Case of the German Lower Rhine-Area 39th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: "Regional Cohesion and Competitiveness in 21st Century Europe", August 23 - 27, 1999, Dublin, Ireland Provided in Cooperation with: European Regional Science Association (ERSA) Suggested Citation: Wenke, Martin (1999) : Regional Unemployment Migration and Commuting - The Case of the German Lower Rhine-Area, 39th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: "Regional Cohesion and Competitiveness in 21st Century Europe", August 23 - 27, 1999, Dublin, Ireland, European Regional Science Association (ERSA), Louvain-la-Neuve This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/114359 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. 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Aim and background Even though unemployment is the major problem of most of the European economies, its priority differs from country to country, but it differs from region to region within these countries, too. This paper focuses on the supply side of regional labour markets and analyses the relationships between regional unemployment, migration movements and commuter flows in the Middle Lower Rhine-Area of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The aim of the paper is to quantify the influence of labour market condition and economic growth on migration movements and commuter flows. The analysis is based on a study prepared for the Chamber of Industry and Commerce of the Middle Lower Rhine- Area (IHK Mittlerer Niederrhein, following up the region is called „CC-district“). The aim of this first study within a three-step-analysis was to describe the changes of the socio-demographic structure of the population and their effects on the level and structure of labour supply within the Lower Rhine-Area. There - among others - the question about the role of a region’s prosperity (measured by the growth rate of production) for the explanation of interregional migration movements has been examined (Hamm/Wenke 1998, pp. 18ff.). The second part will focus on the demand side of the regional labour market. In this part employment and unemployment levels and structures regarding educational and professional qualification and age as well as the corresponding structure of vacancies has to be analysed. This is related to the problem of regional „mismatch-unemployment“, as has been analysed by Maziotta/Cozzi (1997) for Italy and Europe. In a third part of our project - which will be done during spring 2000 - we have to discuss the opportunities of regional labour market policies with respect to the special situation at the Lower Rhine-Area. As an example we want to explore the possible chances of success of what is called „regional/local labour alliances“. This paper follows the first part of the study mentioned above with the additional consideration of regional commuter flows and their relationships to regional growth, labour market condition and migration. - 2 - WENKE - 3 - WENKE 2. The relations between economic trends, migration, and commuter flows of small regions Focusing on the supply side of labour markets numerous studies of the effects of socio-demographic changes on labour supply have been presented. After the fall of the „iron curtain“ on the one hand and with the dynamics of the European integration process on the other hand the role of migration movements across the borderlines have become an increasing importance regarding the supply side of labour markets. Regarding small regional districts internal migration processes have to be distinguished from external migration movements. But as Figure 1 shows, not only the causality of influences of migration on labour supply has to be considered, but also the effects of the labour market constitution and/or those of the overall economic situation of the region related to migration have to be taken into account. Figure 1: Interactions between regional labour markets, migration movements, and commuter flows Region A Region B Economic Situation Economic Situation Labour Market Constitution Labour Market Constitution Migration Movements Commuter Flows „equilibrium approach“ „disequilibrium approach“ This distinction is discussed in the context of the equilibrium/disequilibrium controversy (Hunt 1993). The disequilibrium approach supposes that migration (as well as commuting) can be specified as a function of spatial differences in real wages, employment or unemployment. The equilibrium approach on the contrary emphasises the arbitrary effects (or what we called „supply side effects“ above) of migration according to regional differences of labour market conditions. Most studies reviewed support the assumptions of the disequilibrium approach (Pehkonen/Tervo 1997). Due to the disequilibrium approach the hypothesis in this context is that a relative good economic performance of a region induces migration as well as - 4 - WENKE commuter inflows. Indicators of the economic performance which are focused on here are the unemployment rate and the growth rate of total regional production. Looking at the migration and commuter balances, it can be expected to find positive balances - the population inflows are higher than the outflows - if growth rates are higher and unemployment rates are lower within the region than they are outside the respective region. Considering two regions A and B (Figure 1), we expect a positive migration and commuter balance of region A with region B, if the unemployment rate in A is lower and the growth rate is higher than in region B. This is known as the „macroeconomic aspect of migration efficiency“, in the sense that regional unemployment augments the likelihood of migration. Because of data constraints (we did not use individual panel or micro-census data) we could not check for the „micro-efficiency“ of migration if personal unemployment raises the probability of migration (Tervo 1997, Herzog et al. 1993). Analysing regional migration movements, it seems to be interesting to separate migration of native and foreign people. The underlying hypothesis is that because of lower „emotional relationships“ of the foreigners with their residence in the host land (what can be interpreted as lower „psychic costs“ of migration (Tervo 1997, p. 5)) they might react more sensible to regional differences of economic indicators than native inhabitants do. That means that the influences of growth rate and unemployment differences on regional migration movements should be significantly higher with respect to foreign than to native people, or, in other words, the economically driven regional mobility of foreigners could be higher than the mobility of natives. With respect to the relationships of migration and commuting and their common dependence on economic determinants both complementary and substitutionary relations can be assumed. In the case that economic developments are the main factors that determine the attractiveness of a region, immigration and commuter inflows increase if economic factors indicate a relatively high attraction of a region. Commuting and migration then are complementary variables and correlate positively. Another determinant of migration and of commuter flows is the supply of real estate. Often we find a significant rise of immigration in those regions, which offer sites for detached houses because of their rural structure and the resulting sufficient space for building land. This argument is a considerable one if we have a special settlement structure, where we find a middle- or upper centre-city with a high concentration of enterprises and administrative authorities etc. and a high concentration of jobs in the neighbourhood of a county region. Because of the high costs of living, especially the insufficient supply of low- or middle-priced real estates we often notice immigration in the rural outskirts or suburbia of a metropolis and as a result substitutionary commuter outflows