1 A New Climate for Peace An independent report commissioned by the G7 members Submitted under the German G7 Presidency Disclaimer: The analysis, results, and recommendations are those of the authors only and do not represent the official position of the G7 or any of its member countries. Lead Authors: Lukas Rüttinger, Dan Smith, Gerald Stang, Dennis Tänzler, and Janani Vivekananda Contributing Authors: Oli Brown, Alexander Carius, Geoff Dabelko, Roger-Mark De Souza, Shreya Mitra, Katharina Nett, Meaghan Parker, and Benjamin Pohl Editor: Meaghan Parker Design: Lucid. Berlin Print: PRINTPRINZ GmbH Cover Picture: NASA / Johnson Space Center © adelphi, International Alert, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2015 Contents Figures, Boxes, and Tables ..............................................................................iv Executive Summary ...................................................................................vii 1 Introduction . 1 1.1 The G7’s leadership on climate change and fragility .............................................. 1 1.2 What makes this report unique .................................................................2 1.3 Methodology ..................................................................................2 1.4 Structure of this report .........................................................................3 2 Compound Climate-Fragility Risks . 5 2.1 Climate change and fragility ....................................................................5 2.2 Local resource competition ....................................................................16 2.3 Livelihood insecurity and migration ............................................................26 2.4 Extreme weather events and disasters ..........................................................34 2.5 Volatile food prices and provision ..............................................................42 2.6 Transboundary water management ............................................................ 51 2.7 Sea-level rise and coastal degradation ..........................................................58 2.8 Unintended effects of climate policies ..........................................................64 2.9 Conclusions ..................................................................................72 3 Policy Analysis: An Integrated Agenda for Resilience . 77 3.1 Climate change adaptation ....................................................................81 3.2 Development and humanitarian aid ...........................................................89 3.3 Peacebuilding ................................................................................99 3.4 Conclusions .................................................................................105 4 Recommendations: A New Commitment for Resilience . 109 4.1 Recommendation 1: Integration begins at home ................................................111 4.2 Recommendation 2: Come together for a new dialogue ........................................ 112 4.3 Recommendation 3: Set the global resilience agenda ........................................... 113 4.4 Recommendation 4: Partner for resilience ..................................................... 115 4.5 Five action areas ............................................................................. 117 4.6 A new commitment: The foundation for a more peaceful and more resilient future ...............123 List of Abbreviations .................................................................................124 Glossary ............................................................................................126 Bibliography ........................................................................................129 Figures, Boxes, and Tables FIGURES Figure 1 Pressures and shocks are expected to increase in the future....................................................................................... 8 Figure 2 Planetary boundaries ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 3 Climate risks are cross-cutting ................................................................................................................................ 12 Figure 4 From fragility to resilience ........................................................................................................................................13 Figure 5 Situations of fragility ................................................................................................................................................14 Figure 6 Rain-fed agriculture and conflicts ............................................................................................................................18 Figure 7 Risk factors around natural resources ......................................................................................................................19 Figure 8 Fragility hotspots ......................................................................................................................................................37 iv Figure 9 The commodity super-cycle ................................................................................................................................... 44 Figure 10 Global food crises .................................................................................................................................................... 46 Figure 11 Heat map: Where is the highest risk of water conflict? ...........................................................................................52 Figure 12 Seven compound climate-fragility risks threaten states and societies ...................................................................73 Figure 13 Survey insights: Is our risk analysis shared by decision-makers and foreign policy practitioners? .........................75 Figure 14 An integrated agenda for resilience ........................................................................................................................ 78 Figure 15 Survey insights: Existing initiatives and policies ....................................................................................................80 Figure 16 Building resilience in a changing climate ............................................................................................................... 84 Figure 17 Humanitarian disaster response: How to ‘do no harm’ ........................................................................................... 92 Figure 18 ODA recipients 2011 ................................................................................................................................................. 94 Figure 19 Identifying effective interventions ......................................................................................................................... 97 Figure 20 Recommendations: A new commitment for resilience ......................................................................................... 116 BOXES Box 1 Regional consultations .............................................................................................................................................. 3 Box 2 Selection of risks .......................................................................................................................................................15 Box 3 Darfur: Climate change and pastoralist conflicts ................................................................................................... 22 Box 4 Ethiopia: Land grabs and the global farms race ..................................................................................................... 23 Box 5 India: Competition over water ................................................................................................................................ 24 Box 6 Mozambique: Competition over land ..................................................................................................................... 25 Box 7 Syria: Drought, livelihood insecurity, migration, and conflict ................................................................................... 30 Box 8 Mali: Drought and the Tuareg rebellion ..................................................................................................................31 Box 9 Guatemala: The coffee leaf rust outbreak ................................................................................................................32 Box 10 Sierra Leone: Climate change, decreasing fisheries, and livelihoods at risk ............................................................33 Box 11 Thailand: Poor response to flooding has severe political consequences ............................................................... 38 Box 12 Indian Ocean tsunami: Comparing Sri Lanka and Aceh, Indonesia .......................................................................................... 39 Box 13 Pakistan: Flood mismanagement and fragility ......................................................................................................40 Box 14 Kenya: Slow-onset droughts and security issues .....................................................................................................41 Box 15 Egypt: The 2011 political crisis and bread riots ........................................................................................................48