REPORT ON SPACE WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEMS: CURRENT CAPABILITIES AND REQUIREMENTS FOR THE NEXT DECADE April 2013 Prepared by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research National Space Weather Program Council - Joint Action Group for Space Environmental Gap Analysis In response to a request by the Office of Science and Technology Policy Executive Office of the President NATIONAL SPACE WEATHER PROGRAM COUNCIL (NSWPC) MR. SAMUEL P. WILLIAMSON, Chairman MS. VICTORIA COX* Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Department of Transportation DR. JOHN HAYES* DR. RICHARD FISHER* Department of Commerce National Aeronautics and Space Administration DR. FRED LEWIS* DR. TIMOTHY KILLEEN* Department of Defense National Science Foundation MR. W. RANDALL BELL MS. MARY KICZA Department of Energy Department of Commerce Alternate MS. ROBIN FINEGAN* DR. HARROLD BELL Department of Homeland Security National Aeronautics and Space Administration Alternate MR. JAMES F. DEVINE* MR. DAMON WELLS* Department of the Interior Office of Science and Technology Policy Observer MR. KENNETH HODGKINS MS. GRACE HU Department of State Office of Management and Budget Observer MR. MICHAEL F. BONADONNA, Executive Secretary Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research *Denotes individuals who have rotated off the National Space Weather Program Council. This document was prepared by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) at the request of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in the Executive Office of the President. OSTP retains distribution control of the report. Do not copy or distribute this document outside of U.S. Government agencies without express permission from OSTP. ii PREFACE In April 2011, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in the Executive Office of the President asked the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM), under the auspices of the National Space Weather Program Council (NSWPC), to lead a study to assess (1) the current and planned space weather observing systems and (2) the capacity of those systems to meet operational space weather forecasting requirements over the next 10 years. The request from OSTP followed passage of the NASA Authorization Act of 2010, which directed OSTP to arrange for such an assessment and report the results to appropriate Congressional committees. The NSWPC formed an interagency Joint Action Group (JAG) to execute the study, comprising 25 people from 15 Federal offices. In August 2011, the JAG briefed the NSWPC on the interim results of the study, with OSTP and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) present as observers. This report, which formally documents the study results, was reviewed and approved by all interagency NSWPC members. This report describes the study process, the study requirements and their relevance and importance, an assessment and accounting of current and planned space weather observing systems used or to be used for operations, an analysis of gaps between the observing systems’ capabilities and their ability to meet documented requirements, and a summary of key findings. The report provides OSTP with a consolidated consensus view of the National Space Weather Program Federal agency partners with regard to key capabilities that need to be maintained, replaced, or upgraded to ensure space weather observing systems can meet the requirements of the Nation’s critical space weather forecasting capabilities for the next 10 years. Of course, specific program activities are subject to future budgetary decisions. The National Space Weather Program is a Federal interagency initiative with the mission of advancing the improvement of space weather services and supporting research in order to prepare the country for the technological, economic, security, and health impacts that may arise from extreme space weather events. The goal of the program is to achieve an active, synergistic, interagency system able to provide timely, accurate, and reliable space weather, observations, warnings, analyses, and forecasts. I want to thank the JAG for its excellent service crafting this report. Special praise is due to the group’s co-chairs, Dr. Bill Denig and Colonel John Egentowich, whose strong leadership ensured the success of this difficult undertaking. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research Chair, National Space Weather Program Council iii iv Table of Contents PREFACE ...................................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. v List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... vii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objective ............................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Scope ..................................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 3 2. Relevance, Context and Requirements ....................................................................................... 6 2.1 Relevance of Space Weather - Why It Is Important ............................................................. 6 2.2 Space Weather Architecture ................................................................................................. 7 2.3 Space Weather Domain Descriptions ................................................................................... 9 2.4 Basis of Requirements ........................................................................................................ 11 3. Observing Systems for Operational Support ............................................................................ 13 3.1 Existing Systems Currently Used for Operations ............................................................... 14 3.2 Existing Systems Not Currently Used for Operations ........................................................ 19 3.3 Future/Planned Systems to Replace/Upgrade Existing Systems ........................................ 20 4. Analysis..................................................................................................................................... 22 4.1 Analysis Framework ........................................................................................................... 22 4.2 Detailed Analysis Results by Space Environmental Domain ............................................. 23 4.3 Consolidated Analysis Results ............................................................................................ 26 5. Key Findings ............................................................................................................................ 30 5.1 Summary of Key Findings .................................................................................................. 30 6. Summary ................................................................................................................................... 31 APPENDICES .............................................................................................................................. 32 APPENDIX 1: NASA Authorization Act of 2010 .................................................................. 33 APPENDIX 2: JAG/SEGA Organization and Participants ..................................................... 34 APPENDIX 3: NOAA Space Weather Scales ......................................................................... 35 APPENDIX 4: Space Weather Impacts on Society ................................................................. 36 APPENDIX 5: Requirements for Space Weather Observing .................................................. 43 APPENDIX 6: Gap Analyses by Space Weather Domain ...................................................... 51 APPENDIX 7: Abbreviations and Acronyms.......................................................................... 63 v List of Figures Figure 1. “Conditions-Systems-Impacts-Actions” Linkage .......................................................... 7 Figure 2. Space Weather Architecture ........................................................................................... 8 Figure 3. Space Weather Domains................................................................................................. 9 Figure 4. Space Weather Observing Systems .............................................................................. 13 Figure 5. Current ground-based Ionospheric Sensors .................................................................. 14 Figure 6. Ground-based Solar Telescopes ..................................................................................