Confronting the Inconvenient Truth The Politics and Policies of Australian Climate Change Adaptation Planning Lisette B. Collins A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Government and International Relations Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences University of Sydney August 2016 Statement of originality This is to certify that to the best of my knowledge, the content of this thesis is my own work. This thesis has not been submitted previously, either in its entirety or substantially, for a higher degree or qualification at any other university or institute of higher learning. I certify that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work and that all the assistance received in preparing this thesis and sources have been acknowledged. Lisette B. Collins To confront - transitive verb 1. face in hostility or defiance 2. face up to and deal with (a problem, difficulty, etc.). (Australian Oxford Dictionary 2nd edition, 2004) ii Acknowledgements To my supervisor Professor David Schlosberg – I thank you for your support, advice, integrity, and the endless opportunities you have afforded me for the past four years. I am honoured to have been your first Australian Ph.D. student! To my second supervisor Dr. Anna Boucher – your guidance throughout this process has been invaluable. You have been so generous with your time and this thesis is better for having been considered by your exceptional mind. To the Department of Government and International Relations – a number of excellent academics have contributed to my thinking over the past four years. Dr. Stewart Jackson – I still remember your advice from my first year defence. Dr. David Smith – who provided exceptional direction in the Research Design Winter School and provided guidance on the analysis of the database. Dr. Peter Chen – who provided invaluable thoughts in my second year regarding local government in Australia. Dr. Chris Neff – who provided excellent tips about the final stages of writing and direction on post-thesis life. Dr. Aim Sinpeng – who was generous enough to help me rethink my skills in a non-academic context and who I partly attribute my success in gaining my current role in State Government. To my three Ph.D. coordinators – Professor Colin Wight, Associate Professor Adam Kamradt-Scott, and Professor Ariadne Vromen. Each of you have provided excellent guidance in your own way and fostered an excellent postgrad community. To the incomparable Sydney Environment Institute – you have no idea how much a friendly face means when you are looking down the barrel of re-writing entire chapters or transcribing over 20 hours of interviews. I am grateful to Beth Wale, Dr. Frances Flanagan, Marie McKenzie, Professor Iain McCalman and Rebecca Simpson iii for the wonderful lunch breaks and much needed non-thesis related chat! In particular, I am forever indebted to Michelle St. Anne who has been a tireless cheerleader and advocate of my research in the public space. I am honoured to have played a small part in ‘They Come For Them At Night’ and I am forever in awe of your endless capacity to inspire people to think about the important things in life. To Bernadette and Nathan Collins – for putting up with their big sister commandeering the family dining table for two years and for being amazingly supportive throughout the whole process. Thank you for the distractions when needed, the reality checks when warranted, and your love always. To Byron Wilson – it’s not common practice to complete a Ph.D. thesis in the first year of marriage and yet here we are. Our success is in no small part due to your ability to remain grounded and calm through almost everything. (Also, you are much better at handling a crying Lisette now than you were when we were 18 - that skill in particular came in handy.) I won’t say I couldn’t have done this without you because I know you wouldn’t accept that, but I will say that I would have had way more problems without your sensible perspective to guide me. Finally, to Marlene and Tony Collins – This is what happens when you tell a kid they can do anything and then genuinely believe it is true. That kind of thinking is catching and will lead to your daughter completing a Ph.D. thesis without ever doubting whether it’s possible. Thank you for your love, advice, and unfaltering support. I don’t know if you know, but there is this look each of you get when you are proud of me, Bernadette, or Nathan. I’m looking forward to seeing that look on graduation day and to be honest, it provides me with a sizable proportion of my motivation to do anything in life. iv Abstract Climate change adaptation policy development has been taking place for almost a decade, but thorough analysis of adaptation policy across Australia is yet to be achieved. This thesis explains variation in the identification of vulnerability in Australian climate change adaptation plans (CCAPs). It asks: how can we explain the variation in the prioritisation of socio-political concerns in CCAPs developed by local governments across Australia? The research shows that a general indistinct remit within local government contributes to a variety of problem definitions regarding climate change across councils that result in variation in identification and prioritisation of socio-political concerns. The thesis also engages with the question of ‘adaptation as transformation’ and concludes that transformation has not yet occurred in the Australian adaptation context. This thesis lays out the findings of a personally collated database of 97 climate change adaptation plans (CCAPs) from across Australia. CCAPs are categorised as either biophysical impacts-based or socio- political inclusive. Surveys and interviews were conducted to examine this variation, with specific attention paid to the inclusion of vulnerable groups and mental health in adaptation planning. Variation in the inclusion of and approaches to education and community consultation (key determinants of adaptive capacity) was also examined. The research is located at the intersection of the vulnerability literature, public policy, and the politics of climate change adaptation planning. As well as categorising Australian CCAPs as ‘transitional’ rather than ‘transformational’ adaptation, the research contributes a new theory – ‘the politicisation of vulnerability’ to the vulnerability literature, provides a new Australia-wide case study for the public policy literature, and offers a unique database of Australian local government CCAPs. v Contents Chapter One: Introduction to Australian Climate Change Adaptation Planning ............................................................................................................................... 1 Adapting to Climate Change ................................................................................................... 2 Original Contribution – Empirical ..................................................................................................... 4 Original Contribution – Theoretical ................................................................................................. 6 Original Contribution – Policy Case Study .................................................................................... 7 Key Word: ‘Climate Change’ ................................................................................................... 8 Key Word: ‘Adaptation’ .......................................................................................................... 10 Research Question ................................................................................................................... 11 Research Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 13 A History of Adaptation in Australia ................................................................................. 15 Adaptation Policy – Climate Change Adaptations Plans ...................................................... 15 A Typology of Climate Change Adaptation Plans .................................................................... 20 A Biophysical Focus for National Adaptation Planning ........................................................ 23 Climate Change Adaptation as Policy ................................................................................ 27 From a Global to a Local Issue ......................................................................................................... 27 Some Introductory Barriers to Adaptation (Besides the Politics) ................................... 30 Justifying Adaptation Policy: Political Context and the Concept of ‘No Regrets’ ....... 32 Conclusion and Thesis Outline ............................................................................................ 36 Chapter Two: Two Key Literatures – Vulnerability and Public Policy .......... 41 Vulnerability Literature – What Does It Mean To Be ‘Vulnerable?’ ........................ 42 Risk Management and Vulnerability: Two Different Approaches ................................... 45 Examining the Socio-political in Relation to Vulnerability ................................................. 47 Socio-political Inclusions: What Does Adaptive Capacity Really Mean? ....................... 51 vi Vulnerable Groups, Mental Health, and Education as Components of Adaptive Capacity ....................................................................................................................................................