DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE 30 September 2021 US government shutdown likely averted but a debt ceiling resolution still awaits • USD: There now seems to be a clear path to averting a US government shutdown and legislators are likely – if not guaranteed – to take it. Democrats plan to offer a “clean” continuing resolution (not tied to the debt limit) that would keep the government open through December 3rd. This will likely pass in the Senate with bipartisan support later this week in the House. Debt ceiling – meanwhile, the debt ceiling is likely to be raised along party lines through reconciliation. Republicans continue to make clear that they will not participate in a bipartisan process to raise the debt limit. Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) has asked for unanimous consent to proceed to a vote on a debt ceiling suspension (which could then pass with a simple majority) but is opposed by Republicans. It remains Citi analysts’ and market’s base case that Democrats will ultimately use party line reconciliation to raise the debt limit. Given the tight timeline, a key issue is how long the reconciliation process will take – but this is likely to get underway in the relative near term and potentially for some procedural steps to be sped up. • USD: Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Yellen has already indicated “extraordinary measures” staving off the debt ceiling may be exhausted by October 18. Though the date has been reported by some outlets as when Treasury will run out of cash, “extraordinary measures” are exhausted when Treasury can no longer issue net new debt – despite potentially having cash left in its account. Citi analysts continue to project that remaining extraordinary measures and cash on hand will be enough for Treasury to satisfy all its obligations through November 3, or possibly longer. But no matter what the true “hard ceiling” date, legislative and market attention will remain on raising or suspending the debt ceiling before mid-October. Beyond mid-October, the US Treasury’s cash balance would likely drop to uncomfortably low levels, even if it remains positive. • USD: Recently climbing UST yields can be partly explained by the brinksmanship related to a government shutdown and debt ceiling default tail-risks that offer a direct channel to higher US yields. But given the now clear path to averting a US government shutdown, it is not surprising to see US bond yields retrace some of their gains overnight. However, debt ceiling concerns tend to bring a more mixed reaction in FX. For instance, during the 16-day shutdown from October 1, 2013 and until the debt ceiling was raised, the broad-based USD Index (DXY) rose 0.7% while during the 35-day shutdown and until the debt ceiling resolution, starting December 22, 2018, DXY fell approximately 1%. This mixed reaction is likely a result of 2 opposing flows – (1) risk aversion inflows into USD as debt ceiling concerns first start to emerge (this may partly explain the USD strength this week) but increasingly countered by (2) investors demanding a higher risk premium on US debt on the rising probability of debt default (missing coupon payments) as the deadline approaches – either via higher US yields or a weaker USD (or both). The longer the dispute, the stronger the outflows linked to a higher risk premium on US debt obligations via a weaker USD. CURRENCY UPDATE – PAGE 1 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE. DAILY CURRENCY UPDATE Euro area ESI largely sideways in September, Q3 likely to have been the peak • EUR: European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator rises 0.2 point to 117.8 ( 1.8SD above its long-term average) in September, exceeding the consensus forecast for a 0.6-point drop to 117.0 and Citi analysts’ forecast for an unchanged print of 117.5. The composite measure of price expectations also rises to a new record high of 2.3SD above its historical average while composite employment expectations are stable at 1.0SD, but at their highest level since Dec-17. The data is consistent with the baseline that euro area sentiment has likely topped out in 3Q-21 and going into Q4, broad stabilization of demand, employment and selling price forecasts would be consistent with a probable deceleration in the pace of economic activity. Citi analysts forecast euro area real GDP growth will likely rise by around 0.9% QQ in 4Q-21 after expected gains of 2.2% QQ in both 2Q and 3Q-21. Japan LDP elections – Kishida’s elevation brings stability and predictability • JPY: At the party congress, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elects Fumio Kishida as the new party president and the next Japan PM, replacing PM Yoshihide Suga. The result is unlikely to have a major impact on the Yen as Kishida's economic policies are mostly in line with the LDP’s platform and bring a sense of stability and predictability. Citi analysts expect additional spending of c¥15trn in a supplementary budget — a new economic package will be presented in the fall and Kishida has mentioned a figure of ¥30trn for the size of the package. This would likely translate to additional expenditure of about ¥15trn in the supplementary budget for FY2021. Data for the reminder of this week • USD: US August Personal Income – Citi: 0.3%, median: 0.2%, prior: 1.1%; Personal Spending – Citi: 0.4%, median: 0.6%, prior: 0.3%; Core PCE MoM – Citi: 0.3%, median: 0.2%, prior: 0.3%; Core PCE YoY – Citi: 3.6%, median: 3.5%, prior: 3.6% - despite a soft 0.10% increase in core CPI in August, Citi analysts expect a much stronger 0.26% increase in core PCE inflation leaving the Y/Y measure elevated, rising closer to 4.0% by year-end. • USD: US September ISM Manufacturing – Citi: 58.9, median: 59.5, prior: 59.9 - ISM manufacturing should fall to 58.9 in September from 59.9 in August as supply issues constrain production and employment. In particular, the employment component is likely to remain in contractionary territory, in line with persistent labor shortages. • USD: US September Conference Board Consumer Confidence – Citi: 118.5, median: 115.0, prior: 113.8 – Citi analysts expect consumer confidence to rise moderately to 118.5 in September after falling to 113.8 in August. This would be a similar to the move in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. • EUR: Euro area HICP Inflation, September Flash – Citi: 3.2% YY, prior: 3.0% YY - the sizable increase in electricity and gas prices will contribute to push headline and core inflation higher in September. Citi analysts still pencil in further above-trend growth in core goods prices, reflecting supply chain disruptions and strong demand for durable goods and see euro area inflation peaking in November probably above the team’s current forecast of 3.5% YY. • CNH: China Manufacturing PMI September: Citi 50.2, Prior -- 50.1 – China’s official manufacturing PMI might stay above the 50 mark in Sep-21 due to seasonality. Blast furnace operating rates by steel mills have weakened somewhat nationwide due to tighter environmental policy, but impact of the flooding in some parts of China should have diminished. Meanwhile, new orders could hold up if export orders are supported by production disruptions by the pandemic outside China. Price indices though are likely to remain elevated due to tight supply constraints. 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