Dicing the Data to Predict the Hits Special thanks to Top factors by PDs/MDs for adding a single “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences 1. Artist stature/reputation 96% intangible 2. Gut feeling 91% intangible 3. Playlist fit (tempo, sound) 75% intangible 4. Sales data 74% research 5. Free show for station 72% promo oppt’y Top factors by PDs/MDs for adding a single “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences 6. Prior single’s performance 71% airplay 7. Local concert appearance 70% promo oppt’y 8. Relationship with artist 69% intangible 9. Local callout/research 69% research 10. PD word-of-mouth 64% intangible 11. Relationship with label 59% intangible Moderate factors by PDs/MDs for adding a single (“Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” responses) 12. Nat’l airplay chart growth 54% airplay 13. Streaming data (overall) 52% other media 14. Airplay at specific stations 49% airplay 15. Nat’l airplay chart rank 49% airplay 16. Corporate mandate 49% internal Streaming media aren’t major “add factors” for Country PDs/MDs … yet. “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” to influence a new airplay: Streaming media overall 52% 13th of 38 Spotify streams 31% 28th YouTube views/streams 20% 30th Apple streams 20% 32nd Pandora streams 14% 34th 1 Shazam data ranked No. 25 in influence, but it can be predictive. 12+ Shazams per Country 1 spin in 2nd chart week Average chart peak: 4 No. 1s 90% Median Shazams per spin in second chart week is 5.61; average is 6.33. Avg. peak of 165 completed charted singles is 17.7; avg. pct. reaching No. 1: 40.6% Shazam data on 207 charting Country singles, includes some still active; Mediabase: 8/3/15 through 8/21/17 Shazams per Country 1 spin in 2nd chart week Shazams per spin Average Pct. Reaching (2nd chart week) Chart peak No. 1 7.0-11.99 9.0 63% 5.50-6.99 15.5 53% Median Shazams per spin in second chart week is 5.61; average is 6.33. Avg. peak of 165 completed singles is 17.7; avg. pct. reaching No. 1: 40.6% Shazam data on 207 charting Country singles, includes some still active; Mediabase: 8/3/15 through 8/21/17 Shazams per Country 1 spin in 2nd chart week Shazams per spin Average Pct. Reaching (2nd chart week) peak #1 4.00-5.49 16.7 25% 2.00-3.99 26.3 18% 0.00-1.99 41.8 0% (of 11) Median Shazams per spin in second chart week is 5.61; average is 6.33. Avg. peak of 165 completed Shazam-measured singles is 17.7; avg. pct. reaching No. 1: 40.6%; avg. weeks to No. 1 is 24.0. Shazam data on 207 charting Country singles, includes some still active; Mediabase: 8/3/15 through 8/21/17. Week 2 Shazams/Spin compared 1 to eventual chart peak position 9 8.03 Chart week 2: Shazams per spin, August 2015-2017 8 7 5.70 5.70 6 5.06 5 4 3.80 3 2 1 0 No. 1 (67) 2 to 10 (15) 11 to 15 (11) 16 to 39 (40) 40 to 50 (32) Higher Shazams-per-spin in week 2 1 can indicate a faster pace to No. 1 Weeks to No. 1 based on Shazams per spin in chart week 2, August 2015-2017 35 30 28.8 25 22.8 23.6 20 18.0 15 10 5 0 10.01 or more (14) 7.5-10.0 (14) 6.0-7.49 (17) 0.0-5.99 (22) 2 Streaming data was No. 13 in influence, but it deserves more attention. Listeners are streaming 2 Country hits more than ever All charting singles avg. on-demand streams (2nd chart week) August 2015-2016 454,882 August 2016-2017 719,197 +58.1% 8/10/15-8/1/16 vs. 8/8/16-8/21/17 Nielsen Music/BDS; Mediabase 2nd chart week I How many streams is a lot? 2 45.0 Top-streaming singles by format 40.0 38.3 Millions per week, Nielsen Music/BDS 8/27/17 35.0 32.6 30.0 24.5 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 7.4 6.8 5.8 5.0 0.0 Top 40 R&B/Hip Hop Adult R&B Triple A Mainstream Rock Country Ranking of the most-streamed 2 Country singles The Most Streamed Country Singles per week, per Nielsen Music/BDS (6/20-8/21/17) 4,000,000 3,676,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,314,000 2,000,000 1,664,000 1,357,640 1,500,000 1,169,700 1,012,760 864,300 1,000,000 715,587 500,000 0 1-5 rank 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 I Top 10 Country BDS singles average 2 2.5 million streams per week Country streams by Nielsen Music/BDS chart position (7/10-8/21/17) 3,000,000 2,573,670 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,822,300 1,500,000 1,241,260 943,300 1,000,000 727,807 500,000 0 1-10 chart rank 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 3 Early streams-per-spin activity is correlated to radio airplay chart outcomes. I 3 Streams per spin can be an early predictor of airplay chart outcome Chart week 2 Nielsen Music/BDS Country streams per Mediabase spin (169 singles, 8/10/15-8/7/17) 800 707 700 600 500 475 433 408 400 300 200 100 0 No. 1 chart peak chart peak chart peak singles 2-15 16-30 31-50 3 High early streams-per-Country spin show predictive potential Streams per spin Average Pct. Reaching (2nd chart week) peak #1 601+ 12.6 56.3% 301-600 15.0 48.0% all singles 18.0 39.6% 0-300 23.7 22.5% 169 Country singles, Nielsen Music/BDS, Mediabase 8/10/15-8/7/17 Streams-per-spin also indicate 3 the airplay pace to No. 1 Weeks to No. 1 2nd chart week (Nielsen Music/BDS, Mediabase, 67 No. 1 singles, 8/10/15-8/7/17) 30.0 27.5 25.0 23.5 20.7 21.4 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 800+ streams/spin 700+ 200-699 0-199 4 Pandora spin activity (#34) is proving to be relevant to outcomes of Country singles. 4 Pandora is more than a month ahead of airplay at projecting Top 10 Country radio hits Top 10 airplay Pandora first Pct. Pandora Avg. lead singles to Top 10 first over radio 52 42 81% 5.1 weeks Aug. 8, 2016-August 21, 2017: Pandora, Country Aircheck/Mediabase. 5 “Most Added” scored 31st out of 38 factors influencing PDs on new adds. But…. No. 1 Most Added is 5 a reliable early hit indicator at Country radio Reached No. 1 55.5% Reached Top 15 82.0% Country Aircheck/Mediabase, August 2006-2017 Outcomes of No. 1 5 120.0% Most-Added Country singles Country Aircheck, Mediabase, August 2006-2017 98.8% 100.0% 100.0% 92.6% 96.4% 86.8% 81.7% 79.7% 80.0% 73.1% 67.6% 65.9% 59.3% 60.0% 55.5% 55.0% 49.5% 43.4% 39.6% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% No. 1 Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20 Top 30 Top 40 Top 50 #1 Most Added All charting singles No. 1 and No. 2 Most-Added 5 Country singles have comprised 86% of No. 1s in the past 2 years 60 51 50 40 30 27 20 10 10 2 1 0 No. 1 Most No. 2 Most No. 3 Most No. 4 Most No. 5+ Most Added (56%) Added (29.7%) Added (11%) Added (2.2%) Added (1.1%) 91 unique No. 1 singles: Country Aircheck/Mediabase, August 3, 2015 to August 21, 2017 I Outcomes of Most-Added 5 Country singles Among singles that charted: Avg. Peak No. 1 Most Added* 7.3 No. 2 Most Added (but not #1)** 16.3 No. 3 Most Added (but not #1 or 2)*** 19.8 No. 4 Most Added (but not #1, 2 or 3)*** 32.8 No. 5+ Most Added (but not #1, 2, 3 or 4)*** 41.1 *Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Unique charting singles from Aug. 28, 2006-Aug. 21, 2017 **Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Unique charting singles from Jan. 17, 2012-Aug. 21, 2017 ***Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Unique charting singles from Aug. 3, 2015-Aug. 21, 2017 I A huge Most Added Week 5 generally means a very successful Country single. Pct. Reaching #1 Avg. Peak 60% of reporters 76% 3.5 50% of reporters 70% 3.7 Any No. 1 Most Added single 56% 7.3 Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Any No. 1 Most Added singles from Aug. 28, 2006 through Aug. 21, 2017; 60% based on 31 of 41 singles; 50% based on 16 of 23 singles. I Top 10 Most Added 5+ 5 straight weeks? Usually means a big Country hit. Pct. That reach No. 1 71% Average peak 4.6 Any No. 1 Most Added single 56% Average peak 7.3 Country Aircheck/Mediabase: 52 singles ranking among top 10 Most Added for five consecutive weeks, January 2016-August 2017 Early signs of success, #1: Jon Pardi: Dirt On My Boots (Capitol) • Shazams per spin in 2nd chart week: 9.69 • Streams per spin in 2nd chart week: 724.6 • #1 Most Added • Top 10 on Pandora 5 weeks ahead of monitored airplay Early signs of success, #2: Dan + Shay: From The Ground Up (Warner Bros.) • Shazams per spin in 2nd chart week: 16.0 • Streams per spin in 2nd chart week: 1,813.2 • #1 Most Added • 5 straight weeks among top 10 Most Added Early signs of success, #3: Old Dominion: Song For Another Time (RCA) • Shazams per spin in 2nd chart week: 9.64 • Streams per spin in 2nd chart week: 953.3 • #2 Most Added, top 10 Most Added 6 straight weeks • Top 10 on Pandora same week as monitored airplay Summary: Five data factors worth considering 1 High Shazams per spin in 2nd chart week (among the top 50) 2 Streaming rankers make useful benchmarks nd 3 High streams per spin in 2 chart week (among the top 50) 4 Pandora as a Top 10 pacesetter #1 or No.