Talking "Fracking": A Consultation on Unconventional Oil and Gas Analysis of Responses October 2017 BUSINESS AND ENERGY social research Talking ‘Fracking’: A consultation on unconventional oil and gas. Analysis of responses Dawn Griesbach, Jennifer Waterton and Alison Platts Griesbach & Associates October 2017 Table of contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction and background ........................................................................... 4 Policy context 4 The Talking ‘Fracking’ consultation 4 About the analysis 5 2. About the respondents and responses ........................................................... 7 How responses were received 7 Number of responses included in the analysis 9 About the respondents (substantive responses only) 10 Responses to individual questions 11 3. Overview of responses ................................................................................... 13 Views on fracking and an unconventional oil and gas industry 13 Pattern of views across consultation questions 14 4. Social, community and health impacts (Q1) ................................................. 15 Health and wellbeing 16 Jobs and the local economy 17 Traffic, noise and light pollution 18 Housing and property 18 Quality of life and local amenity 18 Community resilience and cohesion 19 5. Community benefit schemes (Q2) .................................................................. 20 Criticisms of and reservations about community benefit schemes 21 Support for community benefit schemes 22 Design and operation of schemes 23 Alternative / additional proposals 24 Other points made 24 6. Impacts on Scotland’s economy and manufacturing sector (Q3) ............... 25 Comments on the findings of the economic impact assessment 26 The nature of impacts on the economy and manufacturing sectors 26 Other relevant issues raised by respondents 30 7. Role in Scotland’s energy mix (Q4) ................................................................ 31 Unconventional oil and gas has no role in Scotland’s energy mix 32 Unconventional oil and gas as a ‘transition fuel’ 33 Insufficient quantities of unconventional oil and gas 34 i Other relevant views 34 8. Potential environmental impacts (Q5) ........................................................... 36 Potential environmental impacts 37 Scale and consequences of potential environmental impacts 38 Evidence to guide decision making 40 Induced seismicity 40 Decommissioning and aftercare 41 9. Potential climate change impacts (Q6) .......................................................... 42 Negative impact on climate change 43 Positive or neutral impact on climate change 45 10. The regulatory framework (Q7) ...................................................................... 47 General views on regulation of the industry 48 Gaps in the regulatory framework 49 Co-ordination and structuring of responsibilities 50 Capability and capacity for strong regulation 50 The costs of regulation 50 Public confidence in the regulatory framework 51 Other points 51 11. Benefits of an unconventional oil and gas industry (Q8) ............................. 52 Economic benefits 53 Energy mix and energy security benefits 54 Community benefits 55 Environmental benefits 55 Other benefits 56 Other relevant considerations 56 12. Risks/challenges of an unconventional oil and gas industry (Q9) .............. 57 Summary of main risks 58 Additional risks (not previously discussed) 59 Challenges 60 Managing the risks and challenges 61 13. Other comments (Q10) .................................................................................... 62 Context and personal perspectives of the respondents 62 The case for and against fracking 63 Decision making – the next steps 64 Evidence and information 66 ii Annex 1: Campaign responses .............................................................................. 67 Avaaz online campaign 67 Broad Alliance postcard campaign 68 Broad Alliance: model answers to consultation questions 69 Friends of the Earth Scotland online campaign 71 Friends of the Earth Scotland postcard campaign 72 Greenpeace online campaign 72 Scottish Greens online campaign 73 South Lanarkshire against Unconventional Gas (SLAUG) letter campaign 74 Annex 2: Petition texts ............................................................................................ 78 38 Degrees online petition 78 Change.org online petition 78 Children’s petition 80 Our Forth petition 80 Scotland Against Fracking petition 80 Annex 3: Data validation ......................................................................................... 81 Annex 4: List of organisational respondents ....................................................... 84 Annex 5: Number of respondents answering each question .............................. 87 iii Glossary of technical terms The following terms were used in the consultation paper and are also used in this report. Coal bed An unconventional source of gas because the gas is absorbed in the methane coal rather than being held in pore spaces. Conventional oil Oil and gas that is recovered by drilling a well in porous rock, with the and gas oil or gas flowing out under its own pressure. Fracking The common name for hydraulic fracturing – a drilling technique used to exact oil and gas contained in shale rock. Fugitive The escape of gasses or vapours from industrial equipment due to emission leaks or other unintended causes, during industrial activities. Greenhouse gas Any gaseous compound in the atmosphere that is capable of absorbing infrared radiation, thereby trapping and holding heat in the atmosphere. Hydraulic A drilling technique, commonly referred to as ‘fracking’, which involves fracturing fracturing rock to release the oil and gas contained in the rocks. Liquefied natural Gas, chiefly methane, liquefied for transportation. gas (LNG) Moratorium A temporary prohibition of an activity. Natural gas A source of energy, typically composed of a mixture of hydrocarbons such as methane, hydrogen, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Seismic activity Vibration of the ground or earthquakes due to natural or man-made causes. Shale gas A form of natural gas trapped within shale rock. Shale rock An impermeable rock from which natural oil and gas can be extracted. Unconventional Oil and gas deposits contained in impermeable rocks, such as shale oil and gas or coal. In such cases, the oil or gas cannot easily flow through the reservoir. Therefore to extract the oil and gas from the rock, techniques such as hydraulic fracturing must be used. Well A hole drilled into the earth by a drilling rig to explore for, or extract oil and / or natural gas. iv Abbreviations The following abbreviations are used in this report. GDP Gross Domestic Product HSE Health and Safety Executive SEPA Scottish Environmental Protection Agency SNH Scottish Natural Heritage Note about terminology used in the analysis The following terms are used in this report specifically in relation to the responses received in the consultation and in relation to the analysis of those responses. Campaign response A response submitted through a co-ordinated campaign, often using standard text provided by the campaign organiser. Campaign responses are of two types – standard and non- standard (see below for definitions). Standard campaign A response to the consultation in which the respondent simply response added their name to the standard text provided by a campaign organiser without making any changes to it. Non-standard A response to the consultation in which the respondent edited campaign response the standard text provided by a campaign organiser or added their own comments to it before submitting it (usually via the campaign organiser’s website). Substantive response A response drafted by a respondent using their own words (and not submitted through a co-ordinated campaign), or a non- standard campaign response. The use of the term ‘substantive’ here is not intended to imply that such responses were lengthier or more substantial than, for example, standard campaign responses – simply that the responses were original or, in the case of non-standard campaign responses, were personalised. Petition A response to the consultation comprising an introductory statement (the petition statement) followed by a list of signatories and their contact details. Predominant views The views expressed most frequently and by the widest range of respondents. (See Chapter 3 for further details.) Alternative views The views expressed by a small number of respondents within limited subgroups. (See Chapter 3 for further details.) v Acknowledgements We would like to thank Elizabeth Leighton for her assistance with the technical aspects of this project, and in identifying and collating references to research evidence cited in the responses. We would like to thank Karin, Sean and Lily for their assistance with data input. vi Executive Summary 1. There are potentially significant reserves of shale gas and oil and coal bed methane in Scotland, particularly in the central belt. However, accessing these resources would require the use of technologies such as hydraulic fracturing (commonly referred to as ‘fracking’) and dewatering. Questions and concerns have been voiced by some about the possible environmental, health, social and economic implications of developing an unconventional oil and gas industry, and about whether the development of such