Chapter 2. Socio-economic effects of demographic changes Section 1. Effects on Districts and Cities 〔Trend to lower internal migration〕 The internal migration is decreasing, not only between prefectures but within prefectures as well, reaching its lowest ever recorded level. 6. Changes of number of internal migrants 900 800 Number of internal migrants 10,000) 700 Rate of internal migration 9 Migratory rate ( ： 600 8 7 500 Number of intra-prefectual migrants 6 400 5 300 4 ％ Number of inter-prefectual migrants ) 200 3 2 100 Migrating population (unit 1 0 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Note: Number of internal migrants do not include those moving within cities, town and villages. Source: MPHPT,“Annual Report On The Internal Migration In Japan Derived From The Basic Resident Registers”2001 Regarding situation of in-migrant and out-migrant for 3 major areas, the chart indicates that the great surplus of net- migration into 3 major areas regularly seen beginning with the period of high economic growth has settled, but the net- migration into Tokyo area had been plus since the commencement of this survey. 7. Changes of net-migration for 3 major areas 70 Tokyo Area: Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba Prefectures 60 Osaka Area: Osaka, Hyogo, Kyoto and Nara Prefectures Nagoya Area: Aichi, Gifu and Mie Prefectures 10,000) ：� 50 Total Tokyo Area 40 30 Osaka Area 20 10 Nagoya Area Immigration surplus (unit 0 －�10 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 �Year Source: MPHPT,“Annual Report On The Internal Migration In Japan Derived From The Basic Resident Registers”2001 A trend toward return to the central city can be seen in Tokyo and Osaka as a result of increased condominium development in the central cities. 5 8. Comparison of rate of population increase and decrease in the 23 wards of Tokyo and Tokyo Area ％� Tokyo Area 23 Wards 1.20 1.00 0.92 0.79 0.78 0.80 0.71 0.63 0.53 0.57 0.52 0.60 0.42 0.32 0.40 0.61 0.40 0.48 0.45 0.20 0.27 0.30 0.00 －0.18 －0.20 0.00 －0.37 －0.40 －0.41 －0.60 －0.68 －0.80 Tokyo Area: Tokyo, Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa Prefectures －0.78 －1.00 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Sources: Compiled from MPHPT,“Population Census”,“Current Population Estimates”, Tokyo Prefecture,“Current Population Estimates in Tokyo” 9. Comparison of rate of population increase and decrease in Osaka City and Osaka Area ％� Osaka Area Osaka City 0.60 0.46 0.50 0.38 0.40 0.30 0.26 0.27 0.30 0.21 0.24 0.16 0.20 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.12 0.10 0.07 0.00 －0.04 －0.10 －0.04 －0.05 －0.08 －0.20 －0.12 －0.23 －0.30 －0.27 Osaka Area: Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo and Nara Prefectures －0.40 －0.42 －0.38 －0.50 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Sources: Compiled from MPHPT,“Population Census”,“Current Population Estimates”, Osaka Prefecture Population Estimate Materials In regional districts outside the 3 major areas, population movements towards the large cities for higher education and employment have slowed and, the younger generation tends to settle in regional districts. 10. Changes of population index by age group in regional districts (Age 10 population = 100) Index 105.0 Regional Districts：the 36 Prefectures outside the Tokyo, 100.0 Nagoya and Osaka Areas (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba 95.0 Prefectures; Aichi, Gifu and Mie Prefectures; Osaka, Kyoto, Nara and 90.0 Hyogo Prefectures) 85.0 80.0 75.0 Born 1975 Born 1965 70.0 Born 1955 65.0 Age 10 Age 15 Age 20 Age 25 Age 30 Source: Compiled from MPHPT,“Population Census” 6 〔Increase in districts experiencing population declines〕 Districts experiencing population declines are expected to increase in future, with nearly all Prefectures showing declines by the year 2020. 11. (Increase in prefectures experiencing population declines) (1995-2000) (2005-2010) (2015-2020) (2025-2030) Rate of population change Plus 0％ or more 0％ to －2％� less than －2％� Source: Compiled from MPHPT,“Population Census”, IPSS,“Population Projection for prefectures in Japan” Looking at future population trends in metropolitan areas reveals a continuing greater trend towards mild concentration of population in the large metropolitan areas than in the core cities of regional blocs, but in nearly all other urban areas the process of decline will soon begin. 12. Changes of population index by city areas category 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 Tokyo City and Government Designated Urban Metropolitan Areas Other City Areas 80.0 Non-City Areas Nation Overall 75.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) 7.