OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR Dekadal Bulletin from 21st to 30th January, 2020 LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES Bulletin no 33 NATIONAL OBSERVATORY ON CLIMATE CHANGE DIRECTION GENERALE - DIRECTORATE GENERAL ONACC ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; email: [email protected]; Tel (237) 693 370 504 CLIMATE ALERTS AND PROBABLE IMPACTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 30th JANUARY, 2020 Supervision NB: It should be noted that this forecast is Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change developed using spatial data from: (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. - the International Institute for Climate and Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change Society (IRI) of Columbia University, USA; (ONACC). - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ProductionTeam (ONACC) Administration (NOAA), USA; Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, ONACC and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. - AccuWeather (American Institution specialized in meteorological forecasts), USA; Eng . FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, ONACC. BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, Technical staff, ONACC. - the African Centre for Applied Meteorology ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. for Development (ACMAD). NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. - Spatial data for Atlantic Ocean Surface MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Climatology/Biogeography. Temperature (OST) as well as the intensity of ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC the El-Niño episodes in the Pacific. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. Business and Environmental law. - ONACC’s research works. I. INTRODUCTION This ten-day alert bulletin n°33 reveals the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018 and climate forecasts developed for the five Agro-ecological zones for the period January 21 to 30, 2020. It also highlights the potential risks, threats and impacts, observable in certain socio-economic sectors in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon. It also assesses forecasts made for the ten-day period from 11th to 20th January, 2020. This current dekad is characterized by the influence of the Harmattan, which causes an accentuation of dry and dusty fog throughout the country and by the installation of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) below the southern part of the country. Morning fogs will also be observed during this period throughout the national territory. II. CLIMATIC HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 30th JANUARY, 2020 II.1. For Temperatures The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala, in the Centre region; - Kousseri, Waza, Bogo, Maga, Mokolo and Yagoua in the Far North region; - Touboro, Dembo, Lagdo, Pitoa, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North region; - Tibati in the Adamawa region; - Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri and Yokadouma in the East region; - Campo in the South region; - Foumban, Foumbot and Tonga in the West region; - Kumba in the South West region; - Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region. NB: 1) During this period, we note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory. 2) There is a high probability of recording an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures of 35-40°C in the Far North and North Regions; above 30°C in the Adamawa region and the northern part of the East region, and in the Centre and South regions. The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large decrease in mean minimum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - - Mokolo, Waza and Mora in the Far North region; - - Poli, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Tchollire and Lagdo, in the North region; - - Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - - Yokadouma in the East region; - - Lolodorf, Akom II and Zoetele in the South region; - Dschang, Mbouda and Bamendjing in the West region; - - Bali, Fundong and Kumbo in the North West region. NB:The current dekad shows high probability of recording low minimum temperatures in the Extreme North, North, Adamawa and the northern part of the East region, Lolodorf, Akom II and Zoetele in the South region; Dschang, Mbouda and Bamendjing in the West region; Bali, Fundong and Kumbo in the North West region. These could also lead to cold waves. A high probability of recording an increase in daily thermal differences of up to 10°C in the localities of Akonolinga and Yaounde in the Centre region, Zoetele and Sangmelima in the South region, Mindourou and Lomie in the East region. Yaounde and its surroundings in the Centre region. ONACC| 1 II.2. For Precipitations Periodic and low intensity rainfall could be observed in the localities of Tiko, Bamusso, Idenau, Mundemba, Fontem, Kumba, Mutengene, Buea and Limbe in the South West region; Campo, Kribi and Ebolowa, Akom II, Sangmelima, Djoum and Lolodorf in the South region; Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokiti, Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region; Ngoila, Lomie, Mindourou ans Mouloundou in the East region, II.3. For visibility and air quality We expect increased morning fog and haze, with a high risk of traffic accidents for road users, in the localities of Eseka Monatele, Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region; Mbitom, Ngoila, Mindourou-Yokadouma, Mouloundou and Lomie in the East region; Kribi, Campo and Nyabizan in the South region; Bamendjing, Foumban, Makoupa, Nkoumangba, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou in the West region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Bamenda, Wum, Santa, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong and Benakuma in the North West region; Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Kumba, Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutenguene, Idenau in the South West region. III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period st th from 21 to 30 January, 2020 1) For precipitations NB : 1) During this period, an increase in morning fog is expected in We expect: localities located on the outskirts of large cities and on the a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone hillsides of the Centre, Southern, East, Littoral and High - A high probability of registering no rainfall in the North Altitude regions (West, North West, South West). and Far North regions; 2) This period is characterized by the influence of the b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Harmattan, which causes an accentuation of dry and dusty fog - A high probability of registering no rainfall in the throughout the country and by the installation of the Inter Adamawa region. Tropical Front (ITF) below the southern part of the country. Morning fogs will also be observed during this period c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone - A high probability of sporadic and low intensity rainfall in throughout the national territory. the localities of Eseka, Mbalmayo, Yaounde and Akonolinga, in the Centre region; Lomie, Ngoila, Mindourou, Yokadouma and Moloundou in the East region; Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmélima, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region. d) In the high plateau zone - A high probability of registering no rainfall in the localities of the North West region; - a high probability of recording sporadic and low intensity rains in the localities of Dschang, Bafang and Bazou in the West region. e) In the monomodal rainfall forest zone - Sporadic and low intensity rains in the localities of Tiko, Bamusso, Mundemba, Fontem, Kumba, Idenau, Mutengene, Buea and Limbe in the South West region; Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokoti, Edea, Mouako, Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region. For visibility and air quality 2) An increase in morning fog and mist is expected in the Figure 1: Distribution of rainfall for the current dekad compared to that of the localities of Eseka, Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre previous dekad from January 11 to 20, 2020 region; Lomie, Ngoila, Mindourou, and Mouloundou in the Source : ONACC, January 2020 East region; Kribi and Nyabizan in the South region; Limbe NB: Bamendjing, Foumban, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, 1) This dekad from 21st to 30th January 2020 corresponds to the Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou in the West extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, and North regions), in the Guinea high savannah zone (Adamawa Esu, Bamenda, Wum, Kumbo, Fundong, Benakuma and region), the high plateau zone (West and North West regions), Bambalang in the North West region; Mundemba, Mamfe, Monomodal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). Fontem, Kumba, Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, 2) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East Mutenguène and Idenau in the South West region. regions) this period corresponds to an extension of the long dry season. ONACC| 2 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures Based on the historical average of maximum temperatures averages recorded from 1979 to 2018, that is 33.3°C in the Far North region, 34°C in the North region, 32.6°C in the Adamawa region, 30°C in the Centre region, 30.3°C in the NB: South region, 30°C in East region, 28.8°C in West region, 30.3°C in the North We note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised West region, 29.9°C in the South West region, 29.1°C in the In the Littoral by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days region, there is a high probability of recording; - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to over the national territory, and particularly in the Far 2018 in Mora and Maroua; around the average in Kaele and higher than the average in North, North, Centre, South and East region.