POLITICAL MONITOR February 2013 Contacts: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 020 7347 3000 Voting Intentions Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote” 3 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All giving a voting All certain to vote: 54% intention: 79% 11% 12% Labour 8% 31% 9% 30% Conservative Lib Dem 9% 7% UKIP Other 41% 42% Conservative lead = -10 Conservative lead = -12 Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th -11th February 2013, all certain to vote = 562 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Voting Intentions January ‘03 – February ‘13 (all certain to vote) 4 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2005 Howard elected Brown as PM 2010 General (Jun 07) (Nov 03) Election General Election 50 Cameron elected (Dec 05) 42% 40 30 30% 20 10 7% A J O A J O A J O A J O A J O A J O A J O A J O A J O A J O A D F A D F A D F A D F F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F A D F u u u u 0 u u u u u u e e e e e e e e e e e p p p p p p p p p p u u u u u u u u u u e e e e e e e e e e c c c c c c c c c c n n n n n n n n n n b b b b b b b b b b b r r r r r r r r r r g g g g g g g g g g t t t t t t t t t t c c c c c c c c c c - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 6 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party? Net change Net from Jan’ % Dissatisfied % Satisfied satisfaction 2013 David Cameron 58 34 -24 +1 Nick Clegg 64 24 -40 -7 Ed Miliband 45 34 -11 +1 -41 -4 The Government 66 25 Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 7 r o t % % i % n o 4 4 4 M l 3 2 3 a c i t i Feb-13 l o Jan-13 P I Dec-12 R Nov-12 O M 3 n ? Oct-12 s o o g s 1 Sep-12 r p ‘ I … g : Aug-12 e e c s e Jul-12 r l u y a o m Jun-12 S r C b May-12 a o a j Apr-12 C Mar-12 s u i Feb-12 r h Jan-12 g b Dec-11 n i Nov-11 e o Oct-11 d F Sep-11 / Aug-11 d y – Jul-11 r n t Jun-11 n a 7 May-11 u b i Apr-11 o 0 l ‘ c i Mar-11 e Feb-11 l t M h Jan-11 n t a s Dec-10 r o i g t Nov-10 e u n i c Oct-10 n n g e Sep-10 e l n Aug-10 u u G E r Jul-10 A s Jun-10 i May-10 s Apr-10 … r Mar-10 y Feb-10 e a Jan-10 w d Dec-09 e Nov-09 a h n Oct-09 t e Sep-09 h w l t Aug-09 i o Jul-09 r w y Jun-09 B u t May-09 o r Apr-09 y a Mar-09 e r Feb-09 a P Jan-09 d Dec-08 e h i Nov-08 f t Oct-08 s i i t Sep-08 d h a Aug-08 t e n s w t Jul-08 o ) s m c i Jun-08 8 h d c e n May-08 a 0 l l r e l Apr-08 e s o o t l n e i Mar-08 u d d a g a b t Feb-08 e J h g i s p Jan-08 ( i f t c i e r s l Dec-07 B i m t a Nov-07 0 C 0 a f a Oct-07 0 , s 1 Sep-07 . s C c i w Aug-07 : e o s t a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 H B a d d e e i i f f s s i i t t a a s s % 4 % 7 6 5 3 2 1 S Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers 8 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? CAMERON nn oo ii tt cc aa ff Number of months from becoming Prime Minister ss ii tt aa ss THATCHER tt ee NN BLAIR MAJOR BROWN Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 2avid Cameron (satisfaction) 9 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? February 2013 January 2006 – February 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 70 Dissatisfied 8% 60 50 34% 40 30 Satisfied 20 58% 10 0 Dissatisfied Net = -24 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 2avid Cameron 10 (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? February 2013 January 2006 – February 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 100 5% 90 Dissatisfied 80 21% 70 60 Satisfied 50 40 Dissatisfied 30 20 75% 10 0 Net = +54 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 241 Conservative supporters 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders 11 (1994 – 2013) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? BLAIR (1994-1997) CAMERON (2005-2010) nn oo ii tt HOWARD cc aa ff (2003-2005) ss ii tt aa Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader ss tt ee NN MILIBAND (2010-2013) HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Ed Miliband(satisfaction) 12 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? February 2013 October 2010 – February 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 60 Dissatisfied 21% 50 34% 40 30 Satisfied 20 10 45% Dissatisfied Net = -11 Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Ed Miliband 13 (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? February 2013 October 2010 – February 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 70 Satisfied 18% 60 50 40 48% 30 20 Dissatisfied 34% 10 0 Dissatisfied Net = +14 Base: 344 Labour supporters 18+, 9th-11th February 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Nick Clegg (satisfaction) 14 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? February 2013 January 2008 – February 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 70 Dissatisfied 12% 60 24% 50 40 30 20 Satisfied 10 0 64% Dissatisfied Net = -40 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Nick Clegg 15 (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters*) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? February 2013 January 2008 – February 2013 Don’t know Satisfied 100 Dissatisfied 90 18% 80 Satisfied 70 60 46% 50 40 30 20 Dissatisfied 37% 10 0 Net = -7 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone *Please note the small base size Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 71 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 9th -12th February 2013 Economic Optimism Economic Optimism Index 17 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? February 2013 80 Don’t know 70 Improve Get worse 3% 60 Stay the same 22% 50 40 44% 30 20 30% 10 Improve Get worse 0 1 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Stay the same - - - - y p n y y y y y y y y p n p n p n p n p n p n p n n p n a e a a a a a a a a a e a e a e a e a e a e a e a a e a J J J J J J J J J J S S S S S S S S S M M M M M M M M M EOI = -22 Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Index (get better minus get worse) o B D T - - - - a v 2 4 8 6 4 2 o s e e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 h : y r c .