September 2010 onomica tr l A s s A s e o s c i o a J t i EPHEMERIS o n a n S SJAA Alien Life: Wanna Bet? SJAA Activities Calendar Paul Kohlmiller Jim Van Nuland August (late) You can bet on almost anything. The 28 General Meeting at 8 p.m. Our speaker is Dr. Seth Shostak from the SETI Institute. entire science called astrobiology is His talk is on “New Approaches to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence”. betting that there is life somewhere other than Earth. What are the September odds? Currently the odds on finding 3 Astronomy Class at Houge Park. 7:30 p.m. Topic is TBA. intelligent life are dropping. There 3 Houge Park star party. Sunset 7:33 p.m., 23% moon rises 2:09 a.m. Star party is a betting office online based in hours: 8:30 until 11:30. England that will give odds on finding 4 Dark Sky weekend. Sunset 7:32 p.m., 14% moon rises 3:21 a.m. extraterrestrial intelligent life. It is 11 Dark Sky weekend. Sunset 7:21 p.m., 20% moon sets 9:11 p.m. Henry Coe Park’s called William Hill. They dropped the “Astronomy” lot has been reserved. odds from 1000-1 to 100-1 when the 17 Houge Park star party. Sunset 7:12 p.m., 78% moon sets 2:32 a.m. Star party first almost Earth-like exoplanets were discovered. hours: 8:00 until 11:00. 25 General Meeting at 8 p.m. Slide and Equipment night (aka “Show and Tell”). Is 100-1 overly pessimistic? Perhaps. In the early 1960’s they gave 1000-1 odds October against a man walking on the moon 1 Astronomy Class at Houge Park. 7:30 p.m. Topic is TBA. by 1970. They paid out about 2 million 1 Houge Park star party. Sunset 6:51 p.m., 38% moon rises 1:03 a.m. Star party dollars. hours: 7:45 until 10:45. 2 Dark Sky weekend. Sunset 6:49 p.m., 23% moon rises 2:14 a.m. There are reasons for believing that 9 Dark Sky weekend. Sunset 6:39 p.m., 9% moon sets 7:45 p.m. Henry Coe Park’s life exists on other planets. A look “Astronomy” lot has been reserved. at recent developments shows the 15 Houge Park star party. Sunset 6:31 p.m., 63% moon sets 1:22 a.m. Star party chances of finding some form of alien life are increasing. It might not be time hours: 7:30 until 10:30. to bet the farm but the foolish gamble 23 General Meeting at 8 p.m. Our speaker is Dr. Daniel Usikov. The topic is “Cur- is to bet against it. Here are some of rent Hypotheses on Dark Energy”. the reasons why. 29 Astronomy Class at Houge Park. 7:30 p.m. Topic is TBA. 29 Houge Park star party. Sunset 6:13 p.m., 53% moon rises 12:02 a.m. Star party There Are So Many Stars hours: 7:15 until 10:15. 30 Dark Sky weekend. Sunset 6:12 p.m., 42% moon rises 1:12 a.m. If all of the factors required for life The Board of Directors meets before each general are probabilities, then the odds are meeting at 6:30 p.m. All are welcome to attend. alien life exists somewhere. One way to conceptualize this is the famous 24 hour news and information hotline: Drake equation. Frank Drake created (408) 559-1221 http://www.sjaa.net Continued on page 2 Copyright © 2010 San Jose Astronomical Association, Inc. Volume 21 Number 9 Official publication of the San Jose Astronomical Association, September 2010 Alien Life: Wanna Bet? Advanced Technology Looks like Magic to become active participants in the Continued from page 1 ultimate search for cosmic company.” this equation decades ago. It gives an The Fermi Paradox says that if intelligent The realization of that wish is SETI estimate of the number of planets that life exists, we should have seen them Quest which will “help us maximize the have intelligent life at this time in our by now. This is still the best argument potential of the fantastic Allen Telescope galaxy. A rough approximation of this against the likelihood that we will talk to Array (the ATA, funded by Microsoft equation is as follows. First, start with E.T. But it is true only if that intelligent billionaire Paul Allen) … I’m pleased that the total number of stars in the galaxy, life is far advanced. Arthur C. Clarke new technologies and the opportunity say about 200 billion. Then reduce that said that any sufficiently advanced to make this a global endeavor have number by the percentage that has technology would look like magic to us. the potential to greatly improve our planets. Then reduce that number by So the answer to Fermi might be, “How search capability.” SETI Quest allows the percentage of those planets that are do you know they aren’t here?” computer programmers to write code in a temperate zone. Then reduce again that can process data from the ATA. At a by the number of planets with life, then Jill Tarter, Research Director at the SETI minimum, this will increase the chances those with intelligent life. These are just Institute, says “we’ve poorly explored of finding extraterrestrial intelligence. guesses at this point in our scientific our solar system. The sorts of things we knowledge but we are fairly certain that could rule out are big, bright Starship But What About Non-Intelligent Life Enterprise-like craft, and those only in a the percentages are better than zero. In So are 100-1 odds on finding intelligent short, if you look at enough stars then few locations. Anything dark, or small, or representative of space colonization life a good bet? What should the odds you eventually come up with a number be? Dr. Tarter says “I don’t give odds. of planets where life could start. by other than wet meat are not at all excluded.” I don’t know the answer. The only Wow Signal reasonable thing to do is (to) do the Catching Planetary Transits (us or experiment.” In 1977, a radio astronomy site run by them) Ohio State University detected a large So what about other life: bugs, bacteria? signal. It was a strong, narrowband The NASA Kepler spacecraft is looking And what would finding alien life signal and the wavelength was near for Earth-like planets. It is looking mean to the search for extraterrestrial 21 cm – the so called water hole of at a section of the sky between the intelligence. Dr. Shostak says “I think radio astronomy. The signal was strong constellations Lyra and Cygnus. The finding life of any variety (including enough that a researcher wrote “Wow” idea is that planets passing in front of DEAD pond scum) would galvanize on the computer printout. It was never their star might reduce the amount SETI, simply because it would be a heard from again but it was never of light we see from that star. This is demonstration that biology, at least, explained either. called the “transit method” of exoplanet is not a miracle!” In other words, such detection. But astronomers are now a discovery would change the betting What if a civilization sent a onetime considering that E.T. might do the same odds dramatically. signal in our direction? Ridiculous you thing. This means that the odds of an say! But we did it. As described by Dr. extraterrestrial intelligence deliberately Do you know what the betting odds Seth Shostak in his book “Confessions of sending a signal in our direction are are for finding any kind of life? Here are an Alien Hunter”, in 1974, Frank Drake greater if they can see the Earth against some things to consider before placing and his team used the Arecibo telescope the background of the sun. The SETI your bets. to send a 210 byte message toward the Institute will make targeted studies of Life Started Quickly on Earth globular cluster M13. It won’t get there some of these stellar systems starting for 25,000 years but when it arrives it this summer. Meanwhile, Kepler is up to For Dr. David Morrison, the likelihood will be a onetime event. The Russians 700 planet candidates. One estimate is of finding life off of this planet has to did something similar in 2008 when it that half will turn out to be verified. do with how you see life in general. If sent a signal toward the exoplanet Gliese you think life came about as a “natural 581c, at the time the most Earth-like SETI Quest Answers a Wish process” then life is probably pretty planet found. So, very slowly, the odds Dr. Jill Tarter gave a speech at the TED likely. If you think life was “seeded by of extraterrestrial life detecting us are little green men” then life is less likely. increasing. At the recent SETIcon held in conference, an organization that brings Santa Clara, CA this August, members together people from three areas: One strong reason for thinking that life of the SETI institute admitted that they Technology, Entertainment, Design. is a natural process is that it started on have seen candidate signals but they Each TED conference speaker gets to could not be verified or reacquired. make a wish. Tarter’s was “that you Continued on page 5 would empower Earthlings everywhere SJAA EPHEMERIS Page 2 September 2010 The Shallow Sky ASTRONOMY magazine In and out of the ecliptic renewal time Akkana Peck September skies are full of planets as we While you’re waiting for Jupiter Jim Van Nuland approach the autumnal equinox, on the and Uranus to get high enough for It’s time to renew our group night of the 22nd.