The EU and the progressive alliance negotiating in Durban: saving the climate? Louise van Schaik Working Paper 354 The EU and the progressive alliance negotiating in Durban: saving the climate? Louise van Schaik October 2012 ODI 203 Blackfriars Road, London SE1 8NJ www.odi.org.uk * Disclaimer: The views presented in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of ODI or CDKN ii ISBN 978-1-907288-83-8 Working Paper (Print) ISSN 1759 2909 ODI Working Papers (Online) ISSN 1759 2917 © Overseas Development Institute and Climate and Development Knowledge Network 2012 Readers are encouraged to quote or reproduce material from ODI Working Papers for their own publications, as long as they are not being sold commercially. For online use, we ask readers to link to the original resource on the ODI website. As copyright holders, ODI and CDKN request due acknowledgement and a copy of the publication. This paper was written for ODI’s European Development Cooperation Strengthening Programme (EDCSP) (see: http://international- development.eu) funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID). It was also written for the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) (see: http://cdkn.org/), a project funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Netherlands Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS) for the benefit of developing countries. However, the views expressed and information contained in it are not necessarily those of or endorsed by DFID or DGIS, who can accept no responsibility for such views or information or for any reliance placed on them. This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, the entities managing the delivery of the Climate and Development Knowledge Network do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. CDKN is led and administered by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Management of the delivery of CDKN is undertaken by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, and an alliance of organisations including Fundación Futuro Latinoamericano, INTRAC, LEAD International, the Overseas Development Institute, and SouthSouthNorth. iii Acknowledgements This paper was written for the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) and the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) European Development Cooperation Strengthening Programme (EDCSP). It should be considered as a ‘think piece’ to stimulate further discussion on the relationship between the European Union (EU) and groups representing the poorest and most climate-vulnerable countries (the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)) and the least-developed country (LDC) group) within international climate negotiations, and on how to strengthen this relationship with a view to furthering meaningful international cooperation on mitigation and adaptation. The author would like to thank Simon Maxwell, Dan Hamza-Goodacre, Siân Herbert and Nicola Cantore for their useful and constructive comments on earlier drafts of this paper, as well as those who provided input through interviews. The responsibility for its contents lies only with her. iv v Contents Acknowledgements iv Contents vi Acronyms vii Executive summary viii 1 Introduction 1 2 Negotiating the climate: building on insights on international cooperation 3 2.1 Why cooperate? Rational choice and sociological motives 3 2.2 Strategic choices for parties in international negotiations 5 2.2.1 What levers of influence? 5 2.2.2 Defining and identifying BATNAs and bottom lines 6 2.2.3 Building workable coalitions 6 2.2.4 Linking negotiations or seeking agreement on sub-items? 7 2.2.5 Shopping for the best international forum 7 2.3 Summing up 9 3 The EU as an international actor: the challenge of cooperation internally and externally 10 3.1 Who speaks for Europe? 10 3.2 Environmental focus 12 3.3 Levers of influence the EU can bring to bear 12 3.4 A coalition of shared interests: cooperation with developing countries 13 3.5 Summary 14 4 The EU’s cooperation with the LDCs and AOSIS in relation to its negotiating performance in Durban 15 4.1 Strategic and normative elements in the EU’s position in Durban 15 4.2 The Durban negotiations 16 4.3 The Durban deal: a major achievement? 17 4.4 Key outstanding challenges 18 5 Negotiating the climate: improving the atmosphere? 20 5.1 Realist and idealist options in the EU’s negotiating strategy 20 5.2 Strategic choices 20 5.2.1 Levers of influence 21 5.2.2 Identifying bottom lines and a Plan B 21 5.2.3 Build and maintain relevant coalitions 22 5.2.4 Management of the negotiations 22 5.2.5 Choosing the right forum for the negotiations 23 6 Conclusions and recommendations 24 References 25 vi Acronyms ADP Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action AOSIS Alliance of Small Island States BASIC Brazil, South Africa, India and China BATNA Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement CDKN Climate and Development Knowledge Network CDM Clean Development Mechanism CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies COP Conference of the Parties DAC Development Assistance Committee EEAS European External Action Service EC European Commission EDCSP European Development Cooperation Strengthening Programme EU European Union ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization ICJ International Court of Justice IMF International Monetary Fund IMO International Maritime Organization IPCC Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change LDC Least-developed Country MDG Millennium Development Goal NGO Non-governmental Organisation ODA Official Development Assistance ODI Overseas Development Institute OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OPEC Organization of the Petroleum-exporting Countries QELRO Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction Objective SIDS Small Island Development States SLCP Short-lived Climate Pollutant UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNCTAD UN Conference on Trade and Development UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change US United States WPIEI Working Party on International Environmental Issues WTO World Trade Organization vii Executive summary This paper applies theory from the field of international relations to try and understand the role of the European Union (EU) in the Durban climate talks. In particular, it analyses the role of the EU’s alliance with groups of developing countries in facilitating an agreement on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. The climate change negotiations bring together parties with different approaches and interests, related to the science of climate change; objectives of international agreement; measures needed; burden sharing; and mechanisms to ensure compliance. It is important to understand the drivers of collective action on these topics, on which there are two schools of thought. The realist school of thought sees international negotiations primarily in terms of self- interest, with negotiators analysing the balance of gains and losses they are likely to experience. The constructivist and sociological schools are more focused on how values and norms underpin the different positions. From a realist perspective, agreement is unlikely when countries believe they can gain a strategic advantage from non-cooperation (e.g. by benefiting from proprietary technology); from a constructivist perspective, agreement may result because of public pressure or a sense of international responsibility. Coalition building plays an important part in negotiations, but also presents dilemmas: if the coalition is too small, it can be ineffective; if it is too large, it can contain parties with too many different and irreconcilable viewpoints. The EU itself is more than a coalition but less than a state. This leads to complex internal negotiations between Member States, and also limits the toolbox available to the EU: historically, it has relied on ‘soft power’ and normative standards rather than ‘hard power’. In some fields, the EU has exclusive competence. In climate change, however, both the EU and its Member States have a say in the negotiations, working together as ‘Team EU’. On the developing country side, new coalitions have emerged to supplement and in some cases replace the traditional grouping of the G77 and China. These include the BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India, China), the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), the Least Developed Country (LDC) group and the African Group of Negotiators (AGN). In addition, the Cartagena Group of about 45 developed and developing countries seeks ambitious outcomes from the climate negotiations. Key issues in Durban included the future of the Kyoto Protocol and the possibility of a replacement agreement, imposing greater responsibilities, especially on larger emitters among developing countries. The EU’s negotiating position, the result of long deliberation within the EU, contained both realist and normative elements: in favour of an extension of the Kyoto Protocol, but only if others agreed to a roadmap for future negotiations, which would include agreement