y FINAL REPORT in the Face of Vulnerabilit in the Face TECHNICAL AND STATISTICAL APPENDICES y Povert g Dominica: Reducin COUNTRY POVERTY ASSESSMENT – DOMINICA December 2010 COUNTRY POVERTY ASSESSMENT DOMINICA TECHNICAL AND STATISTICAL APPENDICES Submitted to: THE CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Submitted by: KAIRI CONSULTANTS LIMITED 14 Cochrane Street, Tunapuna, Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies Tel: 868 663 2677; Fax: 868 663 1442 Website: www.kairi.com In collaboration with the NATIONAL ASSESSMENT TEAM OF DOMINICA COUNTRY POVERTY ASSESSMENT DOMINICA 2008/09 TABLE OF CONTENTS PART 1: SAMPLE SURVEY DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY ...................................................... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 2 1.2 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................. 2 1.2 Technical Details of Sample Survey Design for the SLC/HBS 2008/09 ......................................... 2 1.2.2 Theoretical aspects of sample selection with probability proportional to size .............................. 4 1.2.2.1 Weighting and Non Response Rates ................................................................................................ 5 1.2.2.2 Data Quality ........................................................................................................................................ 7 1.2.2.3 Aggregation ...................................................................................................................................... 13 1.2.2.4 Sampling Errors ................................................................................................................................ 14 1.3 THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE POVERTY LINE ..................................................................... 17 1.3.1 Constructing The Indigence Line .............................................................................................. 17 1.3.2 Adjusting The Indigence Line To Estimate The Poverty Line ................................................... 20 1.3.3 Estimating The Poverty Head Count Index .............................................................................. 20 1.3.4 Computing The Vulnerability Line ........................................................................................... 21 1.3.5 Computing The Poverty Gap Index ........................................................................................... 21 1.3.6 The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke P2 Index (“Poverty Severity Index”) ........................................... 21 1.3.7 The Lorenz Curve And The Gini Coefficient ............................................................................. 22 PART 2: THE RISK OF BEING POOR IN DOMINICA .................................................................. 24 2.1 LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR DOMINICA ................................................................ 25 2.1.1 Model Definition ........................................................................................................................ 26 2.1.2 Model Diagnostics ..................................................................................................................... 28 2.1.3 Interpretation of the Results of the Model ................................................................................. 31 2.2 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................. 33 PART 3 – STATISTICAL TABLES ........................................................................................................ 34 DEMOGRAPHICS ................................................................................................................................ 35 MIGRATION ......................................................................................................................................... 43 HEALTH AND FERTILITY ................................................................................................................. 48 Health ................................................................................................................................................. 48 Fertility ............................................................................................................................................... 98 EDUCATION .......................................................................................................................................112 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ......................................................................................................................162 CRIME ...................................................................................................................................................189 HOUSING .............................................................................................................................................192 SOURCE OF INCOME ........................................................................................................................210 TECHNICAL AND STATISTICAL APPENDICES/ii PART 1: SAMPLE SURVEY DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY COUNTRY POVERTY ASSESSMENT DOMINICA 2008/09 1.1 INTRODUCTION This Volume presents the technical details of the Methodology applied in the design and conduct of the combined Survey of Living Conditions (SLC) and Household Budgetary Survey (HBS) in Dominica, during 2008/2009 and related findings. The survey provides a rich source of data for evaluating living standards and quality of life indicators, and is an essential resource for monitoring development progress. Traditionally, these two surveys are each conducted separately; however, there has been an increasing trend of combining the two a single survey. The SLC/HBS collects wide- ranging information covering food and non-food expenditure and all income sources. Consumption covers all monetary expenditures on goods and services consumed plus the monetary value of all consumption from income in kind, such as food produced for own consumption and the value of owner-occupied housing. The questionnaire was adapted for Dominica through consultation with the members of the National Assessment Team (NAT). Questionnaires were administered to a sample of 877 households (comprising a total of 2,673 persons) throughout Dominica, representing 4 percent of the population. Enumerators were required to visit each household on at least three occasions and households were asked to provide information on all members, irrespective of age. Special emphasis was placed on spenders (person 18 years of age or over or an employed person irrespective of age) in the household; they were all asked to complete a jogger and diary of expenditure in addition to the basic survey instrument. 1.2 METHODOLOGY 1.2 Technical Details of Sample Survey Design for the SLC/HBS 2008/09 The sample for the SLC/HBS 2008/09 in Dominica was selected from a sample frame derived from the 2001 census of population. It is a ‘grand sample’ from which samples of 5 percent, 10 percent, 15 percent etc. can be selected depending on the number of replicates/sub-samples selected. The sample for Dominica is made up of one sub- sample/replicate “a” selected from the ‘grand sample’ of five replicates. Where a district was deemed, based on sample error considerations, to be too small to be represented accurately in the summary statistics which is the subject of this report a second replicate “b” was also included. This was the case for St Luke, St Mark and St Peter. This resulted TECHNICAL AND STATISTICAL APPENDICES/2 COUNTRY POVERTY ASSESSMENT DOMINICA 2008/09 in an expected sample size of approximately 5.3 percent of the population of households in Dominica. For convenience both in selecting the sample and for field enumeration, a two stage stratified systematic random sample selection process was used. At the first stage, Enumeration Districts (EDs) are selected based on a sampling frame constructed from Census Enumeration Districts (EDs). The size of each ED included in the frame is measured in units of clusters of households, approximately eight to eleven households per cluster. The EDs are described as Primary Sampling Units (PSUs). In the second stage, one cluster of households is randomly selected from the selected PSU or ED with probability proportional to size (pps) sampling. The number of assigned clusters (or sample interval) in a particular ED is proportional to the size of the ED. The cluster selected is non-compact in the sense that its members are chosen by systematic random sampling throughout the chosen ED. A random number (r) is chosen between 1 and the sample interval value, I, inclusive, then to this number is added the sample interval for the full list of households within the PSU. Thus, the list of selected households would be r, r + I, r + 2I, r + 3I, r + 4I,……, r + (n – 1)I, where n is the cluster size assigned to the Parish, in the case of the City of Roseau this is approximately 8. All EDs are described by a listing of the households contained in a visitation record for that ED, the random start was generated using a computer based random number generator. The Master Sample (MS) frame was subdivided into eight areas for the purpose of the provision of estimates from samples selected from this frame. The following list of the eight domains or sub-populations, is based on the