Considerations for Use of Microcomputers in Developing CountryStatistical Offices Final Report Prepared by International Statistical Programs Center Bureau of the Census U.S. Department of Commerce Funded by Office of the Science Advisor (c Agency for International Development issued October 1983 IV U.S. Department of Commerce Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary Clarence J. Brown, Deputy Secretary BUREAU OF THE CENSUS C.L. Kincannon, Deputy Director ACKNOWLEDGE ME NT S This study was conducted by the International Statistical Programs Center (ISPC) of the U.S. Bureau of the Census under Participating Agency Services Agreement (PASA) #STB 5543-P-CA-1100-O0, "Strengthening Scientific and Technological Capacity: Low Cost Microcomputer Technology," with the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID). Funding fcr this project was provided as a research grant from the Office of the Science Advisor of AID. The views and opinions expressed in this report, however, are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsor. Project implementation was performed under general management of Robert 0. Bartram, Assistant Director for International Programs, and Karl K. Kindel, Chief ISPC. Winston Toby Riley III provided input as an independent consultant. Study activities and report preparation were accomplished by: Robert R. Bair -- Principal Investigator Barbara N. Diskin -- Project Leader/Principal Author Lawrence I. Iskow -- Author William K. Stuart -- Author Rodney E. Butler -- Clerical Assistant Jerry W. Richards -- Clerical Assistant ISPC would like to acknowledge the many microcomputer vendors, software developers, users, the United Nations Statistical Office, and AID staff and contractors that contributed to the knowledge and experiences of the study team. This document should prove useful to statistical centers in developing countries which-are attempting to establish microcomputing capabilities. SPECIAL INTEREST DIRECTORY Are you interested in... Then read chapter(s)... MICROCOMPUTER TECHNOLOGY REVIEW . ..... ........ 3,4 Presents the historical development of microcomputers; describes various aspects of the technology including hardware, software, marketing, and other characteristics; lists advantages and disadvantages MICROCOMPUTER APPLICATIONS. 5 Looks at how microcomputers are being used in business, industry, education, research and de',elopment, and diverse subject-area fields JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF MICROCOMPUTERS . 6 Provides convincing arguments for the manager wishing to introduce this new technology SELECTING A MICROCOMPUTER . ....... .. 9,10,11 Gives criteria for selection and a thorough review of specific software and microcomputer systems INTEGRATING MICROCOMPUTERS INTO AN OFFICE . 2v7,1214 Describes the typical situation in a developing country statistical office; looks at alternatives for use of microcomputers with other computing equipment; presents a methodology for planning, procurement, installation, training, arid support; describes a mythical case study of a statistical office which acquires microcomputers PROBLEMS AND.GUIDELINES FOR MICROCOMPUTER USERS .... 8,133.. Looks at common problems and possible solutions; provides guidelines for topics such as when to use a microcomputer CASE STUDIES . .. .. .. .. .. .15 Presents a description of actual c microcomputer activity in numerous countries ISPC EXPERIENCE AND SOFTWARE FUTURE . ...... 16,17,18 Describes the procurement and use of two microcomputer systems by ISPC; looks at possible alternatives for ISPC statistical software on microcomputers FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. 19 Summarizes the conclusions of the study DETAILS OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION . ....... Appendix Presents a chronological description of the work undertaken during the course of the project TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . .* . .o * .* .1 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION . 14 CHAPTER 2: THE TYPICAL NATIONAL STATISTICAL OFFICE. 17 2.1 Hardware . * . 17 2.2 Maintenance . * . 17 2.3 Software . 17 2.4 Environment . * . 17 2.5 Personnel . # . 18 2.6 Mode of Operation. e, . e. 18 . 18 2.7 Activities . * . 2.8 Major Applications . 19 2.9 Problem Areas . 21 CHAPTER 3: BRIEF HISTORY OF COMPUTING . ..... .... 22 3.1 Evolution of the Microcomputer . 22 3.2 Three Generations of Microcomputers. 22 3.2.1 First Generation Microcomputers . 22 3.2.2 Second Generation Microcomputers. 23 3.2.3 Third Generation Microcomputers . * 0 . 24 3.3 Changes in Systems and Software . .. 25 3.4 Tangential Developments. 26 3.5 Involvement of Developing Countries. 27 CHAPTER 4: INTRODUCTION 10 MICROCOMPUTER TECHNOLOGY . 30 4.1 Hardware . .. 0 0 .. 30 4.1.1 The Microprocessor Chip . # . a 130 4.1.2 The External Bus. .. 32 4.1.3 Memory. 33 4.1.4 Peripheral Interfaces . 35 4.1.5 Peripherals . ... 36 4.1.6 Local Area Networks . .. 44 4.1.7 Power Monitors and Conditioners . .. 45 4.1.8 System Integration . * . 45 46 4.2 Software . 48 4.2.1 Operating Systems . 4.2.2 High-Level Languages . e . 53 4.2.3 Application Software. P . 57 62 4.2.4 Mechanism for Supply . * . 64 4.3 Mode of Operation. 4.3.1 Communications . * . * . 64 65 4.3.2 Single-User Systems . 4.3.3 Multiuser Systems . 65 63 4.4 Size and Environment . 4.5 Cost . .. 68 69 4.6 Personnel . 72 4.7 Marketing . 4.7.1 Microcomputer Systems . 72 4.7.2 Software Market . 74 4.7.3 Current Market Characteristics. ......... 74 4.8 Maintenance . 76 4.8.1 Options . 76 4.8.2 Maintenance Strategy . 77 4.8.3 Current Maintenance Practices . .... .. 77 . 78 4.9 Advantages and Disadvantages . 4.9.1 Advantages . 78 4.9.2 Disadvantages . .. 79 4.9.3 User Survey . 80 CHAPTER 5: CURRENT MICROCOMPUTER APPLICATIONS . 89 5.1 Agriculture . 89 5.2 Business . 0 . 89 5.3 Data Processing; Statisticel Applications. 91 5.4 Education . 92 5 .5 Engi ne er ing . .. 92 5.6 Government . 93 5.7 e . 93 5.8 Monitoring and Industrial Control. 94 5.9 Personal Use; Games . 94 5.10 Research and Development . 95 CHAPTER 6: ARGUMENTS FOR INTRODUCING MICROCOMPUTERS IN NATIONAL STATISTICAL OFFICES OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. 98 CHAPTER 7: SCENARIOS FOR MICROCOMPUTER INTEGRATION. .100 7.1 Replacing a Mainframe Computer . * . .100 7.2 Independently Enhancing a Mainframe Computer . .100 7.3 Dependently Enhancing a Mainframe Computer . .101 7.3.1 Using Modems and Telephone Lines . .101 7.3.2 Hardwiring the Computers Together . .101 7.3.3 Communications via a Magnetic Medium. .101 7.3.t Advantages . .. 0 . .102 7.3.5 The Mythical NSO. .. ... .... ... 102 CHAPTER 8: POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN USING MICROCOMPUTERS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES . ... .... ... .103 8.1 Access to Information . .... .103 8.2 Vendor Representation . .... .103 8.3 Procurement. .. .104 8.4 Import Restrictions . .104 8.5 Training and User Support . .105 8.6 Documentation ... 106 8.7 Maintenance .... ... ... 107 8.8 Warranties . 107 8.9 Environment . 107 8.10 Power Supply . 108 8.11 Voltage Incompatibility . .. .109 8.12 Video Protocol . .. .... ... .109 8.13 Arithmetic Accuracy. ... .. .... 109 8.14 Character Sets . 0 0 .* . 0 0 0 0 . 110 8.15 Control of Operations . .. ... .... 110 8.16 Misuse of Information. ... ... 111 8.17 Incomputible Equipment . .111 'P .113 CHAPTER 9: CRITERIA FOR MICROCOMPUTER SELECTION . .113 9.1 Intended Use . * . .113 9.2 Software Options . .114 9..3 Evaluation . .. .. 9.3.1 Evaluation Form . .. .114 9.3.2 Initial System Review . * . .115 116 9.3.3 In-Depth Review . 18 9.4 Summing Up . .121 CHAPTER 10: REVIEW OF MICROCOMPUTER SOFTWARE. .121 10.1 An Overview of Software Selection. 10.2 Software for Data Processing . .124 10.2.1 Data Base Software . 127 10.2.2 Statistical and Tabulation Software. .130 10.2.3 Graphics Software. .138 10.2.4 Data Entry Software. .140 10.2.5 Word Processing Software . .140 10.3 High-Level Language Processors . * . 9 .142 BASIC . 143 10.3.210.3.1 Pascal . .146 10.3.3 FORTRAN . .149 COBOL . 150 10.3.510.3.4 PI./I . .. .. .9 . .152 153 10.4 Operating Systems. 10.4.1 The CP/M Family of Operating Systems . .154 10.4.2 MS-DOS . 1588 10.4.3 The UNIX Family of Operating Systems . 158 10.4.4 The OASIS Family of Operating Systems. .159 10.4.5 UCSD p-System Software . .160 10.5 Support Packages . .160 10.5.1 Communication Software . .160 10.5.2 Sort/Merge Utilities . .162 10.6 Future Trends in Microcomputer Software. .163 CHAPTER 11: REVIEW OF SPECIFIC MICROCOMPUTER HARDWARE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICAL OFFICES. .166 11.1 8-bit vs. 16-bit Systems . 166 11.2 Hardware Trends. .169 11.3 Single-User, Multiuser, and Networked Systems. .. .170 11.4 Overseas Representation. .. ... .. ... .. .171 11.5 Review of Specific Hardware for Statistical Data Processing . .. .. ... .. ... .. ... .. .172 11.5.1 Ideal Components of a Picrocomputer System . .172 11.5.2 Vendor Specifics . ... .. ... .. .176 CHAPTER 12: METHODOLOGY FOR INTRODUCTION OF MICROCOMPUTERS. .214 12.1 Developing Microcomputer Literacy . .. 214 12.2 Looking at Positive and Negative Effects . ... .214 12.3 Developing a Policy . .. ... .. ... 216 12.4 Introducing Microcomputers . .. .. 218 12.5 Organizational Implications . .. .. 219 12.6 Procedural Implications . .. 220 12.7 Sociological Impact . .. .. ... 221 12.8 Epilogue . ... .. ... .. 221 CHAPTER 13: GUIDELINES FOR USING MICROCOMPUTERS IN NSO'S. .223 13.1 Mainframes, Minicomputers, and Microcomputers: Distinctions of Function and Capability. .. .223 13.2 Batch and Interactive Processing . * . 226 13.3 Data Formats and File Structures . 0 # 0 .229 13.4 File Size. .. .. ... .. 0 0 # 4 0 .230 13.5 Storage Media. ... 231 13.6 Security . .. ... .. ... 233 13.7 Dealing with Memory Limitations in