The State of the Birds 2010 Report on Climate Change United States of America In this 2010 State of the Birds report, we consider one of the greatest environmental challenges of our time, climate change. How will the impacts of climate change influence our bird populations and their habitats? Accelerated climate change as a result of human activities is altering the natural world as we know it, diminishing the quality of our environment. This report calls attention to the collective efforts needed to protect nature’s resources for the benefit of people and wildlife. Contents Foreword . .3 Forests. .20 Summary . .4 Bird's-Eye.View . .22 Oceans. .6 Stressors . .25 Coasts. .8 Waterfowl. .26 Arctic .. .. .. .10 Gamebirds.. .27 Islands. .12 Our.Approach. .28 Aridlands. .14 North.Shifts. .29 Wetlands. .16 Addressing. Grasslands. .18 Uncertainty . ..30 Laysan Albatross Chick by Brad Bortner Acknowledgments. ..30 2 This report contains information about birds and their habitats, gives examples of what could happen due to climate change, and Foreword outlines suggested solutions and efforts needed to help address Birds are telling us an important these issues. By following the conservation actions in this State of story about climate change the Birds Climate Change report, together we can help ensure that future generations will enjoy the birds we are working to protect The first State of the Birds report in 2009 revealed troubling today. declines of bird populations in the United States during the last North American Bird Conservation Initiative, U.S. Committee 40 years—a warning signal of the failing health of our ecosystems. It also highlighted heartening evidence that concerted American Bird Conservancy conservation efforts can make a positive difference in restoring Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies habitats and reversing declines. Cornell Lab of Ornithology In this 2010 State of the Birds report, we consider one of the greatest environmental challenges of our time, climate change. Klamath Bird Observatory How will climate change affect birds and their habitats? National Audubon Society Accelerated by human activities, climate change is altering the natural world as we know it and is diminishing the quality of National Fish and Wildlife Foundation our environment. Habitat loss and degradation not only threaten The Nature Conservancy birds and other wildlife, but also threaten human and societal U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service well-being. U.S.D.A. Forest Service Because birds are good indicators of environmental conditions, their predicted changes illustrate how ecosystems are likely U.S. Geological Survey to change and they are telling us an important story. Some bird species will adapt and succeed, others will struggle and decline, and some will disappear. Instead of describing what has happened to bird populations, this report presents the first systematic analysis of what may happen to bird populations in each major biome of the United States as a consequence of climate change. This new assessment will aid in prioritizing and planning for conservation management. As the world works to stabilize climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and managing lands, immediate actions are needed to give birds a fighting chance to survive. Sanderlings, Adak IIslandF.Deines USFWS 3 At the same time, increased conservation concern may be warranted for groups of birds, such as waterfowl and aerial insect-eating birds that are abundant now but that will be increasingly stressed as climate change im- pacts intensify. 100% Relative 80% Vulnerability of U.S. Bird Species 60% by Habitat Pelican Island USFWS 40% Red = high vulnerability Percent Speciesof 20% Yellow = medium SUMMARY 0% vulnerability c Birds in Every Habitat Will be ti Green = low Arc Forests Oceans Coasts c Island Aridlands Wetlands vulnerability Affected by Climate Change Hawaiian fi Grasslands Caribbean Paci In this report, we address climate change - focusing attention on what may Big Changes are in Store for Oceanic Birds be in store for our nation’s birdlife, and the stories the birds themselves are All 67 oceanic bird species, including albatrosses, petrels, tropical terns, telling us about the changes that are happening even now. tropicbirds, frigatebirds, and puffins are vulnerable because of their low reproductive potential, use of islands for nesting, and reliance on rapidly Birds in every terrestrial and aquatic habitat will be affected by climate changing marine ecosystems. Seabirds such as Laysan Albatross and Bonin change, although individual species in each habitat are likely to respond Petrel that are restricted to nesting on low-lying islands are in danger of los- differently. We assessed the relative vulnerability of each United States bird ing their breeding habitat as sea levels rise. To provide oceanic bird popula- species, based on five biological aspects of sensitivity to climate change, tions with the best chances of adapting to climate change, we must reduce as well as the exposure of each species' habitat to climate change in the existing threats from overfishing, fisheries bycatch, and pollution. We must near future. We then categorized species as showing High Vulnerability (a also take proactive measures such as removing invasive species and pro- vulnerability score of four or more), Medium Vulnerability (a vulnerability tecting existing or potential breeding colonies on high islands. score of two or three), or Low Vulnerability (a vulnerability score of zero or one). Sea Level Rise and Increased Storm The results indicate that a majority of birds dependent on oceans, and birds Activity Threaten Coastal Birds on Hawaiian Islands, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Birds in Rising sea levels are expected to inundate or fragment low-lying habitats coastal, arctic/alpine, and grassland habitats, as well as those on Caribbean such as salt marshes, sandy beaches, barrier islands, and mudflats. Increas- and other Pacific islands show intermediate levels of vulnerability. Most ing frequency and severity of storms and changes in water temperatures birds in aridlands, wetlands, and forests show lower overall vulnerability will impact quality and quantity of coastal habitats and alter marine food (see bar graph). webs. Beach-nesting terns, highly specialized Saltmarsh Sparrows, and birds dependent on marine waters are among the most vulnerable spe- cies. Migratory species such as shorebirds are also vulnerable to changes in Across all habitats, species of conservation concern showed higher levels of stopover and wintering habitats. Conserving coastal habitats will require vulnerability to climate change than species not threatened by other factors. planning and management to facilitate birds’ movement and resilience. Vulnerability to climate change may hasten declines or prevent recovery. 4 Accelerated Changes in Arctic/Alpine Regions Grassland and Aridland Birds Face Increased temperatures will drastically alter surface water and vegetation Warmer and Drier Habitats in the arctic, resulting in major changes in bird abundance and distribu- tion. White-tailed Ptarmigan and rosy-finches may disappear from moun- Aridlands and grasslands are predicted to become warmer and drier. Many taintops as alpine tundra diminishes. Species that depend on grass-sedge aridland birds are at increased risk because of drought and the potential for tundra for breeding, such as the Black Turnstone, could lose their tundra summertime temperatures greater than they can tolerate. Important winter- breeding habitat. Minimizing human-caused disturbance to low-lying ing areas for many grassland birds may become unsuitable due to increased tundra and high-elevation alpine habitats may help the most vulnerable drought, invasive species, and invasion by woody shrubs. Prairie grouse species adapt to changes. and sage-grouse are vulnerable because of high site fidelity and their lack of tolerance for intensifying agricultural and energy development. Habitat corridors will be vital to allow birds to move to more suitable areas. Habitat Island Birds Face Rising Sea Levels and Reduced Habitats conservation and the protection of core areas in cooperation with farmers Birds of Hawai'i and other Pacific islands already face multiple threats and ranchers will be required for grassland and aridland birds. and are increasingly challenged by mosquito-borne diseases and inva- sive species as climate change alters their native habitats. Protection and Subtle Changes for Forest Birds restoration of natural systems is essential Forests will gradually change as precipitation changes, and as fire, insect to endangered species such as Puaiohi and pests, and diseases alter forest communities. Forest types in eastern states ’Akiapōlā’au in Hawai'i and the Puerto Rican are predicted to shift northward, whereas western forest types will shift Parrot. Decreased rainfall will reduce habitat to higher elevations. These changes will alter bird communities, although for high-elevation forest birds and may result most forest birds will probably be resilient because of their large distribu- in breeding failures among resident birds and tions and high reproductive rate. However, long-distance migrants, espe- reduced overwinter survival of migrants in the cially aerial insect-eaters such as swifts and nightjars, may face multiple Laysan Finch by James H Breeden USGS Caribbean. challenges such as the timing of food resource availability throughout their migratory range. Long-term management solutions