Publication series of Professorship for Global Supply chain Management Chair Holder: Prof. Dr. Aseem Kinra Decision making on allocation of Covid-19 Vaccines in Africa Acay, Deren; Bagci, Elif; Dietrich, Simon; Jahandar, Behnam; Neumann, Fabian Year 2021 Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Assem Kinra | Debarshee Bhardwaj Declaration of Authorship We hereby declare that this elaboration submitted is our own unaided work. All direct or indirect sources used are acknowledged as references. We are aware that this elaboration in digital form can be examined for the use of unauthorized aid and in order to determine whether this elaboration as a whole or parts incorporated in it may be deemed as plagiarism. For the comparison of my work with existing sources, we agree that it shall be entered in a database where it shall also remain after examination, to enable comparison with future elaborations submitted. Further rights of reproduction and usage, however, are not granted here. This paper was not previously presented to another examination board and has not been published. Bremen, 25/2/2021 City, Date Deren Acay, Elif Bagci, Simon Dietrich, Behnam Jahandar, Fabian Neumann II Table of contents TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................... I LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................. II LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................. III LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................... IV LIST OF SYMBOLS ................................................................................................................................ V 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2. STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT ........................................................................................................ 2 2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND ................................................................................................... 3 2.1. COVID-19 STATUS IN AFRICA ...................................................................................................... 3 2.2. COVAX ALLOCATION APPROACH .................................................................................................... 3 3. METHODICAL APPROACH .......................................................................................................... 5 3.1. SELECTION OF DECISION ANALYSIS METHODS ................................................................................ 5 3.2. RESOURCE ALLOCATION MODEL ................................................................................................... 6 4. METHOD EXECUTION .................................................................................................................. 8 4.1. DETERMINATION OF RESOURCES, AREAS AND BENEFITS ................................................................. 8 4.2. THE BENEFITS .............................................................................................................................. 9 4.3. IDENTIFICATION OF POSSIBLE STRATEGIES ................................................................................... 10 5. ASSESSMENT OF RESOURCES AND BENEFITS ................................................................... 11 5.1. RESOURCES ............................................................................................................................... 11 5.2. COSTS ....................................................................................................................................... 12 5.3. VULNERABILITIES ....................................................................................................................... 15 5.4. THREAT ...................................................................................................................................... 17 5.5. RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 19 6. WITHIN-CRITERION /ACROSS-CRITERIA WEIGHTS .............................................................. 20 6.1. COSTS ....................................................................................................................................... 20 6.2. VULNERABILITY .......................................................................................................................... 21 6.3. THREAT ...................................................................................................................................... 22 6.4. RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 25 6.5. ACROSS-CRITERIA WEIGHTS ........................................................................................................ 26 6.6. IDENTIFYING COSTS AND BENEFITS OF STRATEGIC PACKAGES ...................................................... 27 6.7. RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 30 7. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................. 33 7.1. SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 33 7.2. LIMITATIONS ............................................................................................................................... 34 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................................. 35 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................... 39 MAIN SOURCES ....................................................................................................................................... 39 SOURCES FOR ANNEX 2 ........................................................................................................................... 42 SOURCES FOR ANNEX 3 ........................................................................................................................... 43 I List of figures Figure 1: African regions ......................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 2: The within-criterion weights for Health System Capacity ....................................................... 21 Figure 3: The within-criterion weights for Hospital and intensive care unit beds .................................. 21 Figure 4: Identification of efficient frontier ............................................................................................. 31 II List of tables Table 1: Region’s populations (thousands) ........................................................................................... 11 Table 2: Needed Resource per Strategy ............................................................................................... 11 Table 3: Temperature/LPI-Transport-Index ........................................................................................... 14 Table 4: Values of the strategies for costs in the individual regions ..................................................... 15 Table 5: Values of the strategies for vulnerabilities in the individual regions ........................................ 16 Table 6: Values of the strategies for threat in the individual regions..................................................... 18 Table 7: Values of the strategies for Needed Resources and benefits ................................................. 19 Table 8: Costs Benefits considering within-criterion weights ................................................................ 20 Table 9: Values of strategies with each benefit measured on common scale ...................................... 22 Table 10: Threat benefits considering within-criterion weights ............................................................. 24 Table 11: Values of strategies with each benefit measured on common scale .................................... 25 Table 12: Across-criteria weights .......................................................................................................... 27 Table 13: Overall benefit for each strategy ........................................................................................... 28 Table 14: List of strategic packages and their properties ...................................................................... 29 Table 15: Selected strategic packages ................................................................................................. 32 III List of abbreviations AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process AMC Advance Market Commitment COVAX Covid-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility COVID 19 Coronavirus disease 2019 ECDC European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control HSC Health System Capacity LPI Logistic Performance