Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority Pre-feasibility Study Report Natore Economic Zone Prepared By: Infrastructure Investment Facilitation Company Sub-consultants: BETS Consulting Services Ltd. Shahidul Consultants 24 December 2018 Pre-feasibility Study Report Natore Economic Zone 24 December 2018 Prefeasibility Study of Natore Economic Zone Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................7 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 14 1.1 Bangladesh Economy .............................................................................................. 14 1.2 Vision 2021 ............................................................................................................. 15 1.3 Labor Force ............................................................................................................. 16 1.4 Industrial Zone Regime ........................................................................................... 16 2 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ........................................................................ 18 2.1 The Assignment....................................................................................................... 18 2.2 Approach................................................................................................................. 18 2.3 Component 1: Competitive and Comparative Advantage ....................................... 18 2.4 Component 2: Master Planning .............................................................................. 24 2.5 Component 3: Financial and Economic Modeling ................................................... 27 3 ABOUT PROJECT LOCATION ................................................................................. 30 3.1 Natore District......................................................................................................... 30 3.2 Natore Sadar ........................................................................................................... 31 3.3 Project Site .............................................................................................................. 33 3.4 Existing Off-site Infrastructure: Road and Rail Network ......................................... 37 4 COMPETITVENESS ASSESSMENT.......................................................................... 38 4.1 Bangladesh Economy .............................................................................................. 38 4.2 Competitiveness of Natore ..................................................................................... 45 4.3 Competitive and Comparative Advantage of the Site ............................................. 48 5 INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT ....................................................................................... 60 5.1 Potential Industry Sectors for the Site .................................................................... 60 5.2 Sample Characteristics of Industry Survey .............................................................. 60 5.3 Investor Survey ....................................................................................................... 62 5.4 Nature of the Zone with Respect to Suitability of Industries .................................. 64 5.5 Findings from the Investor Survey .......................................................................... 64 5.6 Target Industries and Industry Profile ..................................................................... 66 6 DEMAND FORECAST ............................................................................................. 76 6.1 Purpose of Demand Forecast .................................................................................. 76 6.2 Sources of Data ....................................................................................................... 76 6.3 Demand Forecast Methodology.............................................................................. 77 6.4 General Assumptions .............................................................................................. 77 6.5 Investment Trends .................................................................................................. 78 6.6 Growth Trends ........................................................................................................ 78 6.7 Rationale for Relocating from Dhaka City ............................................................... 78 6.8 Reasons Business Enterprises Remain in Dhaka City ............................................... 78 6.9 Willingness to Locate to the Proposed Economic Zone .......................................... 79 6.10 Past Uptake Rates of other Industrial Parks ............................................................ 79 6.11 Demand Forecast Scenarios .................................................................................... 79 3 Prefeasibility Study of Natore Economic Zone 7 MASTER PLAN ...................................................................................................... 82 7.1 Master Planning Considerations ............................................................................. 82 7.2 Onsite Infrastructure............................................................................................... 91 7.3 Telecommunication System .................................................................................... 97 7.4 Water Supply System .............................................................................................. 99 7.5 Drainage ................................................................................................................ 101 7.6 Fire Protection System .......................................................................................... 101 7.7 Data Connectivity .................................................................................................. 101 7.8 Industrial Effluent Treatment System ................................................................... 101 7.9 Domestic Waste Treatment .................................................................................. 106 7.10 Solid Waste Treatment and Management ............................................................ 108 7.11 Administration/One-stop Service Building and Other Supporting Buildings ......... 110 7.12 Standard Factory Building ..................................................................................... 110 7.13 Supporting Buildings ............................................................................................. 111 8 ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW ................................................................................. 112 8.1 Meteorology ......................................................................................................... 115 8.2 Air Quality and Noise ............................................................................................ 119 8.3 Water Resources ................................................................................................... 120 8.4 Land Resources ..................................................................................................... 124 8.5 Livestock and Poultry ............................................................................................ 131 8.6 Fisheries ................................................................................................................ 133 8.7 Ecological Resources ............................................................................................. 135 8.8 Potential Environmental Impacts and Mitigation Measures ................................. 139 9 SOCIAL REVIEW .................................................................................................. 140 9.1 Socio-economic Condition .................................................................................... 140 9.2 Status of Life Indicators......................................................................................... 141 9.3 Status of Economic Activity ................................................................................... 145 9.4 Income and poverty .............................................................................................. 147 9.5 Gender and women .............................................................................................. 148 9.6 Common property resources ................................................................................ 149 9.7 Conflict of Interest and Law and Order Situation .................................................. 149 9.8 Historical, cultural and archaeological sites .......................................................... 150 9.9 Potential Social Impacts and Mitigation Measures ............................................... 150 9.10 Recommendations ................................................................................................ 151 10 FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .............................................................. 152 10.1 Financial Analysis .................................................................................................. 152 10.2 Term/Business Period ........................................................................................... 159 10.3 Capital Cost ........................................................................................................... 160 10.4 Cost Escalation and Contingency