How do British political parties mobilise and contact voters to increase turnout? Submitted by William Stephen King to the University of Exeter as a thesis for the degree of MA by Research in Politics In August 2018 This thesis is available for Library use on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. I certify that all material in this thesis which is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted and approved for the award of a degree by this or any other University. Signature: ………………………………………………………….. 1 Abstract This thesis will explore how British political parties over the period 2010-2017 have developed their mobilisation and contacting methods. Looking at social media, demographics, and other salient issues, I will construct a coherent and clear narrative of how British political parties have reacted to new technology, and what the advantages and disadvantages of doing so are. I shall be looking in particular at youth political mobilisation and contact, as this demographic has a poor election turnout record, so I shall explain why this is and how British political parties are attempting to contact and mobilise them (and how they have done so successfully). Looking at the 2010, 2015, and 2017 General Elections as well as the 2014 EU and 2016 referendums, this will enable me to take a look at Britain in different political times and differing levels of technology, from the first TV debates in 2010 to the first social media election in 2017. Examining how voter contacting has changed and how political parties attempt to use voter contacting to drive up turnout will be key to the thesis, and will illuminate how the evolution in British political parties over time has changed the way parties and voters relate to one another. 2 Acknowledgements First of all, thank you to my two supervisors, Professor Banducci and Dr McKay, who have been extraordinarily helpful and patient with my health issues over the past year, while prodding occasionally to keep me going. A big thank you as well to the 232 Crew (so Becca, Nick, Martin, Felix, Hannah, Rebecca Baker and more) (and exiled Kit), who have made the past three and a half years both hilarious and productive. A big hand as well to Dr Sweeney, Dr Griffiths, Dr Mackley, Ashley, Dr Jarrett, Imogene, Sam, the general History/Politics/English PhD crew, and other people in Exeter I may have forgotten when writing this at silly AM. Thanks also to my parents, who have somewhat understood what I’ve been going on about the past few years. Finally, enormous gratitude to Hannah, who has been a constant rock throughout the thesis, and without whose support I would have floundered a long time ago. 3 Table of contents Table of contents ................................................................................................................................... 4 Table of tables ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Table of figures ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction: Aims, objectives and results ......................................................................................... 9 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................10 Contribution Made ...........................................................................................................................14 Literature Review ............................................................................................................................14 (Youth) Turnout literature ...............................................................................................................15 Social Media, contacting and mobilisation ..................................................................................17 Scottish and EU Referendum literature .......................................................................................20 2010, 2015 and 2017 General Election literature ......................................................................22 Chapter I: A study of turnout in British Politics: Theory, practice, and thoughts .......................25 What are primary and secondary order elections? ....................................................................26 First-Order Election Turnout and electoral formulas .................................................................28 Why is turnout lower in British second-order elections? ...........................................................31 Youth turnout in 2015 .....................................................................................................................38 Political Leadership and voter turnout .............................................................................................41 New Voter Registration System and turnout ..............................................................................54 Conclusion........................................................................................................................................57 Chapter II: An analysis of the 2010 Election...................................................................................59 What is voter mobilisation, and why is it important?..................................................................60 The 2010 General Election and youth mobilisation ...................................................................62 Data Analysis of the 2010 Election ..............................................................................................65 Impact of the 2010 TV Debates ....................................................................................................76 Conclusion........................................................................................................................................88 Chapter III: The Scottish Referendum .............................................................................................89 16-17 voting: What was the turnout effect? ................................................................................89 Mobilisation of the Ayes and Nays ...............................................................................................90 Yes Scotland and Better Together ...............................................................................................96 The Politicisation of Scotland and the aftereffects of the referendum ..................................100 What does the referendum mean? .............................................................................................107 Chapter IV: The 2015 UK General Election ..................................................................................109 An explanation of youth voting (and other age groups) during the election ........................110 Social networks during 2015 and online mobilisation .............................................................123 4 2015 TV Election Debates ...........................................................................................................145 Post-election and conclusion ......................................................................................................148 Chapter V: The EU Referendum and the 2017 General Election .............................................151 The EU Referendum .....................................................................................................................152 Youth Voters in the EU Referendum..........................................................................................155 Mobilisation in the EU Referendum............................................................................................159 What can be learned? ..................................................................................................................171 The 2017 Election .........................................................................................................................173 Background of the 2017 election ................................................................................................174 Social Media usage in the 2017 election ...................................................................................182 TV Debates, social media effects and demographics .............................................................199 Conclusion......................................................................................................................................210 Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................213 Future speculation ........................................................................................................................222 Concluding remarks ......................................................................................................................225 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................227 5 Table of tables Chapter II Table I: Pre-Campaign contact % rates for various parties in the 2010 Election..........................................................................................................66