Environmental and Safety Solutions Industry Update │ August 2013 Harris Williams & Co. Environmental and Safety Solutions │August 2013 MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT CONTENTS MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT Four Important Trends for Global Air Quality and Pollution Solutions WHAT WE’RE READING Despite several decades of tightening air quality and pollution regulations in many RELEVANT HW&CO. TRANSACTIONS PUBLIC MARKETS developed countries, there remains a major global focus on the subject with a variety of PUBLIC COMPARABLES implications for governments, businesses, investors, and individuals. Although daily, NOTABLE M&A ACTIVITY weekly, and monthly reports out of China dominate the headlines with respect to air M&A TRANSACTION DETAIL pollution issues, there are a variety of important global considerations that will either directly support or supplement investor returns across certain of our focus sectors, OUR PRACTICE including engineering, construction, and consulting as well as test, measurement, and control. This month, we present several considerations for various market participants Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor regarding global air quality and pollution developments. to the environmental and safety solutions M&A market. Our Environmental and 1 Climate Change Will Dominate Shifts in Global Air Emissions Standards Safety Solutions Practice includes experience across a broad range of sectors, Efforts to significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly carbon including products and services that meet dioxide, are inevitable and will have a considerable impact on virtually every area of environmental and safety demands for a economic activity in coming decades, with dramatic effects for particular industries and variety of end markets. sectors. The open question on the topic pertains mostly to how quickly major policies around the world will develop to affect meaningful and permanent reductions in GHG E&S Sectors emissions (not “if” such policies will eventually occur). The atmosphere’s carbon Building Products dioxide level reached 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in May of this year Consumer Products and Services with projected emission rates (assuming no policy changes) on pace to reach 450ppm Energy Efficiency and Renewable over the next 20 to 30 years, a level widely viewed as the threshold for avoiding Energy extremely dangerous climate change scenarios (i.e. well above 2 degrees Celsius Engineering, Construction, and warming through the latter half of the 21st century). The longer the world delays Consulting (ECC) implementation of policy around significant GHG reductions to approach zero Remediation, Cleaning, and emissions over the long-term, the more compressed the time period over which these Abatement reductions and their myriad economic impacts will occur. Safety Equipment A Ticking Time Bomb - Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the Atmosphere Security and Alarms A Ticking Time Bomb – Carbon Dioxide Concentration (1959-2040) in the Atmosphere (1959 – 2040P) Test, Measurement, and Control Traffic, Automotive, and Emergency CO2 Parts per Million (PPM) Waste Management and Recycling 500 Water and Wastewater 450 ppm = Upper-Bound “Safe” Limit 450 CONTACTS 400 ppm = Approximate Current Level Patrick Hanraty | Managing Director 400 [email protected] +1 (267) 675-5915 350 Bob Baltimore | Managing Director [email protected] 300 280 ppm = Pre-Industrial Level +1 (804) 915-0129 Brian Lucas | Managing Director 250 [email protected] 1959 1968 1977 1986 1995 2004 2013E 2022P 2031P 2040P +1 (804) 932-1323 Historical David Allebach | Vice President [email protected] Projected (Constant Rate of Growth) +1 (267) 675-5920 Projected (Linearly Increasing Rate of Growth) Marshall Croft | Vice President [email protected] Source: U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Research. +1 (804) 915-0161 Page | 1 Harris Williams & Co. Environmental and Safety Solutions │August 2013 MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT (CONT.) To be updated While many of the most significant policy actions are yet to come, there are multiple U.S. Population with Unhealthy regulations, systems, and initiatives in place laying the foundation for future Air Quality (2013) developments. First, Europe’s recent efforts to bolster the continent’s struggling Emissions Trading System represent an ongoing commitment across the E.U. to a market-based approach to reducing emissions. Second, China is pressing ahead with plans to introduce pilot carbon-trading schemes in seven cities and provinces with the ultimate goal of establishing provincial carbon budgets and a national carbon-trading 42% system by 2025 to advance meaningful and permanent reductions in emissions. Third, although the U.S. is a long way away from the implementation of any broad-based carbon or other GHG reduction scheme, a number of recent affected and proposed measures focused on lowering emissions will have important impacts across the economy. These include regulations that will double the average fuel economy for cars and trucks by 2025, GHG reporting standards for larger existing and most new fixed 8% sources of emissions, and GHG emissions thresholds for new power plants (President Obama’s recent climate change strategy unveiled in June also proposed aggressive standards for existing power plants). Fourth, the U.S. and China announced in April Population in Counties with One Form their mutual recognition of anthropogenic climate change and their intentions for of Harmful Pollutants bilateral cooperation and initiatives on the issue. In July, the two countries agreed to five Population in Counties with Three new action initiatives with the goal of reducing GHG emissions and air pollution by Forms of Harmful Pollutants tackling the largest sources of emissions in both countries, including a focus on reducing Source: American Lung Association. emissions from heavy-duty and other vehicles and improving GHG data collection and management. Over 131.8 million Americans live in 254 counties with unhealthy 2 Knowledge of the Health Impacts of Air Pollution Continue to Evolve levels of one form of air pollutant. Despite a fundamental understanding of the negative health effects from air pollution Global Annual Deaths Caused that formed the catalyst for the creation of major air quality and pollution laws in the by Outdoor Air Pollution developed world several decades ago, the frontier of this knowledge continues to evolve at a rather alarming pace. Several recent studies highlight this trend: i According to the American Lung Associations’ State of the Air 2013 report, 42% of the population in the U.S. still lives in counties that have unhealthful levels of 2.1mm ozone or short-term or year-round particle pollution, while 8% of the population still lives in counties with unhealthful levels of all three pollutants. ii A recent study published in the July 12 issue of the journal Environmental Research Letters estimates that 2.1 million deaths are caused worldwide each year as a result of ambient fine particulate matter. These pollutants are linked with early death from 470K heart and lung diseases. The study estimates that an additional 470,000 annual deaths are associated with human sources of ozone. Global Annual Deaths Caused by Fine Particulate Matter Global Annual Deaths Caused by Ozone Pollution Source: Mother Nature Network. Over 2.5 million people are killed each year around the world as a result of air pollution. Page | 2 Harris Williams & Co. Environmental and Safety Solutions │August 2013 MONTHLY SPOTLIGHT (CONT.) To be updated iii A study published in a recent volume of the journal Environmental Health Perspectives determined that women’s exposure to high levels of air pollution during pregnancy significantly increased risks of having a child with autism. According to one of the study’s authors, “Women who were exposed to the highest levels of diesel or mercury in the air were twice as likely to have a child with autism than women who lived in the cleanest parts of the sample.” iv A study published earlier this year from a researcher at the University of Calgary demonstrated that the risk of a burst appendix rose 22% with each 16-part-per-billion (ppb) increase in ozone levels over the previous seven days. Ozone levels typically vary from virtually zero on healthy air quality days to more than 300ppb on very unhealthy air quality days. v In the July edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers published findings that China’s Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities north of the Huai River but denied heat to the south, has driven ambient concentrations of health-threatening particulate matter 55% higher in the north leading to a decreased life expectancy of approximately 5.5 years. vi An analysis released earlier this year commissioned by the World Health Organization focusing on eight years of air pollution studies found significant correlation between a wide range of pollutants and a variety of health conditions. In addition to premature deaths from respiratory and heart diseases, the analysis found links to new conditions such as diabetes and still births and adverse effects on the cognitive development of children born to mothers exposed to even small levels of air pollution. Continued research into the health impacts of air pollution and broader political and societal awareness of these effects are