Opening Bell October 29, 2020 Market Outlook Today’s Highlights Indian markets are likely to open gap down on the back of Results: TVS Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Zensar, weak global cues amid uncertainty about US stimulus and a BlueDart, Himadri Specialty Chemicals, surge in Coronavirus cases in developed countries. Vodafone Idea, MRPL, SIS India, Havells India, However, global news flows and sector specific Laurus Labs, Bank of Baroda, Mastek, Tata developments will be key monitorables. Chemicals Index Movement Markets Yesterday 12500 41600 . Domestic markets ended lower tracking losses across 12000 39600 sectors, mainly financials amid weak global cues 37600 11500 35600 11000 . US markets ended lower amid concerns regarding 10500 continued rise in Covid-19 infections in the US 33600 31600 10000 Key Developments BSE (LHS) NSE (RHS) C lose Previous C hg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yrfwd) S ensex 39,922 40,522 -1.5 4.9 -3.2 26.8 . Maruti Suzuki is expected to report a healthy Q2FY21E on Nifty 11,730 11,889 -1.3 4.3 -3.6 27.3 the back of strong volume offtake during the quarter. Total dispatches for the period were at 3.93 lakh units, up 16.2% Institutional Activity YoY (domestic up 18.6%, exports down 13%). ASPs are expected to stay largely unchanged QoQ amid stable C Y18 C Y19 YTD C Y20 Yesterday Last 5 Days product mix (UV at ~16-17% of total volumes), greater F II (| cr) -68,503 40,893 -47,791 -1,131 7,529 D II (| cr) 107,388 44,478 56,711 1 -7,095 absorption of BS-VI pricing in the market. Total operating income is expected at | 19,327 crore, up 13.8% YoY. We expect it to post EBITDA of | 1,995 crore vs. previous World Indices – Monthly performance BSE NSE K ospi S hanghai Nikkei quarter's loss of | 863 crore, with corresponding EBITDA margin of 10.3%. Consequent PAT is seen at | 1,387 crore 39,922 11,730 2,345 3,269 23,419 5.1% 4.5% 1.6% 1.6% -0.4% Nasdaq D ow Jones U .K . F rance G ermany . MCX reported a healthy operational performance with 19.5% YoY growth in topline to | 119.7 crore, led by 10% 11,005 26,520 5,583 4,571 11,561 -0.7% -3.4% -5.3% -5.4% -9.9% YoY growth in ADTO at | 38144 crore. Steady opex led ~760 bps YoY improvement in EBITDA margin at 54.8%. However, lower other income & higher tax impacted earnings that were at | 58.6 crore vs. | 72 crore in Q2FY20 Nifty. Heat Map .Bharti 452 451 H ero 2,946 604 2,135 UPL M&M E icher Airtel Moto 4.3% 2.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 336 7,186 983 2,164 78 Wipro Maruti L&T HUL IO C 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% Bajaj 2,944 H D F C 586 G rasim 777 2,622 P ower 173 TCS Auto Life Ind G rid -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% Markets Today (ADR data updated till yesterday) Bajaj 5,642 771 T ata 135 17,119 765 S BI Life Nestle C ipla F inserv Motors Commodities C lose Previous C hng (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) -0.4% -0.4% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% G old (|/10 gm) 50,509 50,961 -0.9 -0.1 28.8 Axis 505 66 3,131 3,542 345 ONGC D ivis Lab Britannia BPCL Silver (|/kg) 60,199 62,281 -3.3 1.1 29.7 Bank -0.7% -0.7% -0.8% -0.9% -0.9% Crude ($/barrel) 39.6 41.2 -4.0 -3.4 -40.1 JS W 306 166 C oal 113 R eliance 2,011 1,217 C opper ($/tonne) 6,748 6,798 -0.7 1.7 10.2 IT C T itan S teel -1.0% -1.0% India -1.1% Ind. -1.1% -1.2% C urrency U S D /INR 73.9 74.0 -0.2 -0.1 -3.4 83 1,077 S un 463 88 Asian 2,160 G AIL Infosys NTPC E U R /U S D 1.2 1.2 -0.6 0.0 4.5 -1.3% -1.3% P harma -1.5% -1.5% P aints -1.6% U S D /Y E N 104.4 104.4 0.0 1.0 4.0 S hree 21,361 H D F C 1,210 830 T ata 402 4,469 ADR s H C l T ech U ltratech C ement -1.7% Bank -1.9% -2.1% S teel -2.1% -2.1% H D F C Bank 59.9 59.5 0.8 19.9 -5.5 190 K otak 1,551 170 Bajaj 3,371 4,951 IC IC I Bank 11.2 11.1 0.7 13.5 -26.0 SBI H indalco D r R eddy T ata Motors 9.5 9.1 4.6 4.3 -26.7 -2.2% Bank -2.3% -2.3% F inance -2.4% -2.9% Infosys 14.9 14.9 -0.5 7.5 43.9 804 Adani 354 IC IC I 396 Indusind 593 H D F C 1,969 T echM Dr Reddys Labs 68.0 66.9 1.7 -2.2 67.6 P orts Bank Bank Ltd -2.9% -3.0% -3.4% -3.4% -3.5% Wipro 4.9 4.9 -0.4 4.5 30.9 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research Key Data Points Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore) Key Economic Indicator Period L atest Prior Values 100000 RBI Cash Reserve Ratio N/A 3.00% 3.00% 61,444 59,789 55,908 54,454 49,638 R BI R epo R ate N/A 4.00% 4.00% 49,468 RBI Reverse Repo Rate N/A 3.35% 3.35% 50000 C P I Y Y S ep 7.34% 6.69% 4,012 2,860 2,727 2,675 2,511 2,404 C urrent Account Balance Q1 -0.6bln $ -2.6bln $ 0 E xports - U S D S ep 27.4 bln$ 22.7 bln$ 21-Oct 22-Oct 23-Oct 26-Oct 27-Oct 28-Oct FX Reserves, USD Final Aug 542 bln$ 534.6 bln$ BSE Cash NSE Cash G D P Q uarterly yy Q2 -23.90% 3.10% GDP Annual F Y 20 4.20% 6.10% NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) Imports - U S D S ep 30.31 bln $ 29.47 bln $ Industrial O utput yy Aug -8.00% -10.80% 6000000 Manufacturing O utput Aug -8.60% -11.10% Bell Opening T rade D eficit G ovt - U S D S ep -2.72bln $ -6.77bln $ 4000000 3,302,119 5,274,740 2,901,390 WPI Food yy S ep 8.17% 3.84% 2,154,121 1,829,728 WPI Fuel yy S ep -9.54% -9.68% 2000000 1,164,475 WP I Inflation yy S ep 1.32% 0.16% WPI Manuf Inflation yy S ep 1.61% 1.27% 0 21-Oct 22-Oct 23-Oct 26-Oct 27-Oct 28-Oct NSE Derivative Corporate Action Tracker Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) Security name Action E x Date Record Date Status Price (|) Banks 12.6 Asian P aints D ividend 28-O ct-20 30-O ct-20 3.35 IT 5.9 Granules India D ividend 28-O ct-20 30-O ct-20 0.25 Capital Goods 5.1 H industan U nilever D ividend 28-O ct-20 29-O ct-20 14.00 Consumer Durables 4.7 Real Estate 4.1 Colgate Palmolive India D ividend 29-O ct-20 2-Nov-20 18.00 Power 2.9 Nestle India D ividend 29-O ct-20 2-Nov-20 135.00 BSE Small Cap 0.8 Tech Mahindra D ividend 29-O ct-20 2-Nov-20 15.00 BSE Midcap 0.6 FMCG 0.6 Auto 0.2 Metals -2.1 Retail Equity Research Equity Retail Healthcare -2.2 PSU -2.4 – Oil & Gas -4.9 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 (%) ICICI Securities Key News for Today Company/ News View Impact Industry Axis Bank Axis Bank reported a healthy operating Axis Bank has reported an improvement in performance with NII growing 20% YoY to | asset quality even if standstill excluded 7326 crore aided by 7 bps YoY rise in NIM to along with healthy operating performance. 3.58%. PAT for Q2FY21 was at | 1683 crore Outlook for restructuring remaining vs. a loss of | 112 crore YoY. Credit growth subdued remains a key positive. was 10.5% YoY led by 12% rise in retail and Reasonable provisions, capital adequacy corporate loans. Asset quality improved QoQ and operational efficiency augur well for with GNPA, NNPA declining 54 bps, 25 bps to steady earnings growth 4.18%, 0.98%, respectively. On a standstill classification basis, it saw an improvement. Total 1.6% of loans are probable for restructuring. Covid related provisions were at | 5012 crore with cumulative provisions at 2.2% of standard loans ICICI Securities | Retail Research Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research Hero HMCL reported strong Q2FY21 results. Net Topline tracked 7.7% YoY volume MotoCorp sales were at | 9,367 crore, up 23.7% YoY, increase to 18.2 lakh units. Margin, PAT (HMCL) with blended ASPs at | 51,412/unit, a rise of performance was a beat on our estimates.