FULLTIME FOXBOROUGH COMMUTER RAIL FEASIBILITY STUDY Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority Foxborough Commuter Rail Feasibility Study FINAL REPORT September 1, 2010 Prepared For: Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority With Support From: Massachusetts Executive Office of Housing and Economic Development Prepared By: Jacobs Engineering Group, Boston, MA With: Central Transportation Planning Staff, Boston , MA Anne S. Gailbraith, AICP Barrington, RI 1 REPORT NAME: Foxborough Commuter Rail Feasibility Study PROJECT NUMBER: A92PS03, Task Order No. 2 PREPARED FOR: Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA) PREPARED BY: Jacobs Engineering Group Anne S. Galbraith Central Transportation Planning Staff (CTPS) DATE: September 1, 2010 FOXBOROUGH COMMUTER RAIL FEASIBILITY STUDY TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 1: IDENTIFY KEY ISSUES AND PROJECT APPROACH .................................................... 13 1.1 Background ..................................................................................................................... 14 1.2 Key Issues....................................................................................................................... 17 1.3 Approach ......................................................................................................................... 19 CHAPTER 2: ANALYZE THE CAPACITY OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM.............................................. 22 2.1 Line Capacity.................................................................................................................. 26 2.1.1 Forge Park to “Read” Interlocking........................................................................ 26 2.1.2 “Read” Interlocking and South Station (via Northeast Corridor) ......................... 29 2.1.3 “Read” Interlocking to South Station (via Dorchester Branch)............................. 31 2.1.4 Mansfield to “Transfer” Interlocking ..................................................................... 32 2.1.5 Framingham Secondary .......................................................................................... 32 2.1.6 General Capacity Parameters................................................................................. 34 2.1.7 Line Capacity for Future Operations...................................................................... 37 2.1.8 Line Capacity Summary and Conclusions .............................................................. 42 2.2 Terminal Capacity........................................................................................................... 43 2.2.1 Future Growth – South Coast Rail Assumptions .................................................... 46 2.2.2 CRINA Growth Recommendations.......................................................................... 47 2.2.3 Terminal Capacity Summary and Conclusions....................................................... 47 2.3 Maintenance Capacity..................................................................................................... 47 2.3.1 Maintenance Facilities............................................................................................ 47 2.3.2 Existing South Side Fleet......................................................................................... 48 2.3.3 Maintenance Capacity Summary and Conclusions................................................. 50 2.4 Midday and Overnight Layover Capacity....................................................................... 50 2.4.1 Southampton Street ................................................................................................. 50 2.4.2 Readville Yard......................................................................................................... 51 2.4.3 Fan (Front) Yard..................................................................................................... 51 2.4.4 South Station ........................................................................................................... 51 2.4.5 Future Layover Conditions ..................................................................................... 52 2.4.6 Franklin Layover..................................................................................................... 52 2.4.7 South Coast Rail Layover and Assumptions ........................................................... 53 2.4.8 Storage Capacity Summary and Conclusions ......................................................... 53 2.5 Seating Capacity.............................................................................................................. 54 2.5.1 Future Coach Requirements.................................................................................... 59 2.5.2 Seating Capacity Summary and Conclusions.......................................................... 60 2.6 Parking Capacity............................................................................................................. 60 2.7 Accessibility .................................................................................................................... 61 CHAPTER 3: EVALUATION CRITERIA............................................................................................ 62 3.1 Criteria Considered......................................................................................................... 63 3.2 Proposed Evaluation Methodology ................................................................................. 66 CHAPTER 4: ALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 68 4.1 Service Design................................................................................................................. 70 1 FOXBOROUGH COMMUTER RAIL FEASIBILITY STUDY 4.1.1 Service Alternatives................................................................................................. 70 4.1.2 Option A – Foxborough to Walpole Shuttle............................................................ 71 4.1.3 Option B – Hybrid Service ...................................................................................... 77 4.1.4 Option C – Foxborough to South Station (one-seat ride) ....................................... 85 4.2 Infrastructure Upgrades................................................................................................... 94 4.2.1 Option A .................................................................................................................. 94 4.2.2 Option B .................................................................................................................. 97 4.2.3 Option C ................................................................................................................ 100 4.3 Foxborough Layover Facility........................................................................................ 103 4.3.1 Site 1...................................................................................................................... 105 4.3.2 Site 2...................................................................................................................... 105 4.3.3 Site 3...................................................................................................................... 105 4.4 Capital Costs................................................................................................................. 106 4.5 Operating and Maintenance Costs................................................................................. 109 CHAPTER 5: TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING RESULTS ........................................................... 112 5.1 Demographic Assumptions ........................................................................................... 113 5.2 Forecast Summary......................................................................................................... 116 5.3 Forecast Weekday Boardings........................................................................................ 118 5.3.1 Regional Parking Demand ........................................................................................... 121 5.4 Foxborough Park and Ride Lot Fee Sensitivity Testing ............................................... 124 5.5 Fare Revenue Estimates (Upper Bound)....................................................................... 125 5.6 Local Street Traffic Impacts (Upper Bound) ................................................................ 126 5.7 Air Quality Analysis...................................................................................................... 127 CHAPTER 6: EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES............................................................................ 129 6.1 Regional Transportation Impacts .................................................................................. 131 6.2 System Configuration.................................................................................................... 132 6.3 System Expediency....................................................................................................... 133 6.4 Fairness / Elimination of Travel Barriers...................................................................... 135 6.5 Job Accessibility and Opportunities.............................................................................. 138 6.6 Land Use Impacts / Consistency with Local Land Use