February 2016 NOTE: London’s This is the initial draft Rapid Transit Business Case dated Initiative February 2016. Business Case The final City Council approved Business Case is dated May 2016. IBI GROUP SHIFT LONDON’S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE Prepared for City of London DRAFT REPORT Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 1 Key Benefits of London’s Rapid Transit Initiative ................................................................. 1 Plan Foundation: The Strategic Case ................................................................................... 2 Project Costs: The Financial Case ....................................................................................... 3 Value of Rapid Transit: The Economic Case ........................................................................ 4 Implementation Plan: Delivery and Operations Case ........................................................... 5 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................. 6 1.2 Business Case Approach and Organization ............................................................ 6 2 Strategic Case ..................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Problem and Opportunity Statement ....................................................................... 9 2.2 Municipal Planning Framework .............................................................................. 10 2.2.1 2015 – 2019 Strategic Plan ....................................................................... 10 2.2.2 The London Plan (draft Official Plan) ........................................................ 10 2.2.3 Transportation Master Plan ....................................................................... 11 2.2.4 Downtown Plan ......................................................................................... 12 2.3 Existing Transportation Conditions ........................................................................ 12 2.4 Guiding Principles and Objectives for Rapid Transit ............................................. 14 2.5 Rapid Transit Alternatives Considered .................................................................. 16 2.5.1 Common Elements.................................................................................... 17 3 Financial Case ................................................................................................................... 18 3.1 Operating Costs ..................................................................................................... 18 3.1.1 Service Levels ........................................................................................... 18 3.1.2 Vehicle and Rolling Stock Requirements .................................................. 19 3.1.1 Annual Operating Costs ............................................................................ 19 3.1.2 Capital Costs ............................................................................................. 20 3.1.3 Financial Case Summary .......................................................................... 21 February 12, 2016 i IBI GROUP ERROR! REFERENCE SOURCE NOT FOUND. SHIFT LONDON’S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE Prepared for City of London DRAFT REPORT Table of Contents (continued) 4 Economic Case ................................................................................................................. 23 4.1 Transportation Inputs ............................................................................................. 23 4.1.1 Transportation Demand Model ................................................................. 23 4.1.2 Ridership Forecasts .................................................................................. 23 4.1.3 Wider Transportation Network Impacts..................................................... 23 4.2 Internal User Impacts ............................................................................................. 24 4.2.1 Value of Time Savings for Transit Riders ................................................. 24 4.2.2 Reliability Improvements ........................................................................... 25 4.3 External User Impacts ............................................................................................ 26 4.3.1 Vehicle Safety ........................................................................................... 26 4.3.1 Network-wide Road User Benefits ............................................................ 26 4.3.2 Air Quality Improvements .......................................................................... 26 4.3.3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions .................................................. 27 4.3.4 Health Benefits .......................................................................................... 27 4.3.5 Economic Case Summary ........................................................................ 28 4.4 Wider Economic Development Impacts ................................................................. 29 4.4.1 Short-Term Impacts (Construction) ........................................................... 29 4.4.2 Long-Term Impacts (Operations) .............................................................. 30 4.4.3 Long-Term Impacts – Increase in Land Values ........................................ 31 5 Sensitivity Analysis .......................................................................................................... 35 6 Delivery and Operations .................................................................................................. 36 6.1 Current Project Management ................................................................................. 36 6.2 Project Timelines ................................................................................................... 36 6.3 Funding and Procurement Strategy ....................................................................... 38 7 Conclusions and Next Steps ........................................................................................... 38 Appendix A – Project Scorecard ............................................................................................... 40 February 12, 2016 ii IBI GROUP ERROR! REFERENCE SOURCE NOT FOUND. SHIFT LONDON’S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE Prepared for City of London DRAFT REPORT Table of Contents (continued) Exhibit 0.1: Key Economic Benefits ..................................................................................... 4 Exhibit 1.1: Preferred Rapid Transit Concept ...................................................................... 7 Exhibit 2.1: Auto Travel Time (in minutes), 2009 ............................................................... 13 Exhibit 2.2: Transit Travel Times (in minutes), 2009 ......................................................... 14 Exhibit 2.3: Ratio of Transit Travel Times to Auto Travel Times, 2009 ............................. 14 Exhibit 2.4: Guiding Principles ........................................................................................... 15 Exhibit 3.1: Assumed Service Levels ................................................................................. 18 Exhibit 3.2: Vehicle and Rolling Stock Requirements ........................................................ 19 Exhibit 3.3: Operating Cost Assumptions .......................................................................... 19 Exhibit 3.4: Rapid Transit Operating Costs between 2018 and 2030 (In $2015) .............. 20 Exhibit 3.5: Capital Cost Inputs (Single Year Spending Assumption) ............................... 21 Exhibit 3.6: Financial Account Summary ........................................................................... 22 Exhibit 4.1: 2035 Annual Ridership Forecasts .................................................................. 23 Exhibit 4.2: Summary of VKT ............................................................................................. 24 Exhibit 4.3: Projected Transit Travel Time Savings ........................................................... 25 Exhibit 4.4: Transit Travel Time Savings ........................................................................... 25 Exhibit 4.5: Safety Benefits ................................................................................................ 26 Exhibit 4.6: Network Wide Road User Benefits ................................................................. 26 Exhibit 4.7: Air Quality Benefits .......................................................................................... 26 Exhibit 4.8: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions ........................................................ 27 Exhibit 4.9: Health Benefits ................................................................................................ 28 Exhibit 4.10: Economic Case Summary ............................................................................ 28 Exhibit 4.11: Estimates of Short Term Employment, Income and GDP Impacts during Construction ..................................................................................................... 30 Exhibit 4.12: Estimates of Annual Long Term Employment, Income and GDP Impacts ... 31