ENVIRONMENT COMMITTEE REPORT Agenda Item 5.3 8 July 2008 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGY – DRAFT FOR PUBLIC CONSULTATION Division Strategic Planning and Sustainability Presenter David Mayes, Manager Strategic Planning and Sustainability Purpose 1. To provide the Environment Committee the draft of the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and to seek endorsement for the draft to be released for consultation. Recommendation from Management 2. That the Environment Committee: 2.1. endorse the release of the draft Climate Change Adaptation Strategy; and 2.2. note the proposed consultation process. Background 3. Large sectors of society and the economy are likely to be impacted by climate change. Climate related changes are already happening in Melbourne. 4. The municipality of Melbourne is vulnerable to the effects of climate change which are predicted to include rising temperatures, reduced rainfall, increased extreme rainfall events, sea level rise and extreme wind speeds. Council needs to plan to manage the changes and risks presented by the impacts of climate change. Key Issues 5. The Draft Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (Attachment 1) analyses predicted climate, impacts and implications and socio-economic changes for Melbourne. It outlines an integrated assessment framework, risk assessment, risk management plan and adaptation strategy and proposes mechanisms and timeframes for Council to manage these risks. Relation to Council Policy 6. Key elements of the draft strategy are included in the draft Eco City goal of Future Melbourne (sub goal Adapt for Climate Change). 7. This report relates to: 7.1. the Heatwave Response Plan (currently under development); and 7.2. Council’s commitment to the C40 Large Cities Climate Leadership Group. 8. This report is one of three environmental policies that are currently being finalised, the other two being: 8.1. City as a Catchment, which focuses on sustainable water management; and 8.2. update of Zero Net Emissions by 2020, which focuses on the reducing climate change emissions within the municipality. Consultation 9. Public consultation will commence early July 2008 and finish early August 2008. This will allow the finalised report to be presented for consideration at the September Environment Committee meeting. The scope of the consultation includes: 9.1. directly seeking comments from internal and external stakeholders. A full list of external stakeholders is at Attachment 2; 9.2. making the draft available through the City of Melbourne website and Frontline; and 9.3. a notice seeking public comment/submission will be published in Melbourne News, the Green Leaflet (electronic), Melbourne Weekly, and the Leader Newspaper. 10. The following organisations have been consulted in the development of the current draft: - Victoria Police, Yarra Trams, Connex, SES, Metropolitan Ambulance Service, Department of Sustainability and Environment, Department of Human Services, Sustainability Victoria, National Australia Bank, Transurban, Basset, Envestra, Citipower, Melbourne Water and South East Water. Finance 11. There is no direct financial implication arising from the recommendation contained in this report. Legal 12. The subject matter of the report is within the objectives of the Council. Sustainability 13. The impacts of climate change have the potential to cause significant disruption to most aspects of council operations and to the municipality as a whole. Impacts are being experienced now and these will increase in severity and intensity over the next 20 years and beyond. The Climate Change Adaptation Strategy will inform areas of Council that require attention to mitigate against the effects of climate change and adapt to an increasingly hostile environment. Attachments: 1. Draft of Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2. Public Consultation List 2 D R A F T Towards a City of Melbourne Climate Change Adaptation Strategy A Risk Assessment and Action Plan Discussion Paper Responding with Resilience City of Melbourne 3 July 2008 Document No.: D R A F T A Risk Assessment and Action Plan Discussion Paper Prepared for City of Melbourne Prepared by Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd Level 9, 8 Exhibition Street, Melbourne VIC 3000, Australia T +61 3 9653 1234 F +61 3 9654 7117 www.maunsell.com ABN 20 093 846 925 3 July 2008 60040845 © Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd 2008 The information contained in this document produced by Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd is solely for the use of the Client identified on the cover sheet for the purpose for which it has been prepared and Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd undertakes no duty to or accepts any responsibility to any third party who may rely upon this document. All rights reserved. No section or element of this document may be removed from this document, reproduced, electronically stored or transmitted in any form without the written permission of Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd. COVER IMAGES Bourke St Mall shrouded in bushfire smoke, December 20 2006 (The Age) Drivers stranded by flash flood, Dudley St, West Melbourne, 2003 (Sydney Morning Herald) Walk Against Warming, Melbourne 2007 (Sydney Indy Media) Waterfront City, Docklands. Artists impression (alia.org) D R A F T Quality Information Document A Risk Assessment and Action Plan Discussion Paper 60040845 p:\60040845 climate change adaptation Ref strategy\6_draft_docs\6.1_reports\com_service_prod-#4727206-v1- climate_adaptation_-_draft_v6.3july08.doc Date 3 July 2008 Donna Lorenz, Ben Heard, Lotte Hoekstra-Fokkink, Jolyon Orchard, Prepared by Sandra Valeri Reviewed by Claudio Senese Revision History Authorised Revision Revision Details Date Name/Position Signature 17/03/2008 Greg Harrison Group Manager V3 03/06/2008 Greg Harrison Group Manager V4 18/06/2008 Greg Harrison Group Manager V5 19/06/2008 Claudio Senese Associate Director V6 03/07/2008 Helen Franklin Commercial Manager Towards a City of Melbourne Climate Change Adaptation Strategy A Risk Assessment and Action Plan Discussion Paper 3 July 2008 Commercial-in-Confidence D R A F T Table of Contents Executive Summary 6 1.0 Introduction 11 2.0 Methodology 11 3.0 City of Melbourne 12 4.0 Climatic Changes for Melbourne 14 4.1 Temperature 14 4.1.1 Potential Implications for Melbourne 14 4.2 Extreme Temperature 16 4.2.1 Potential Implications for Melbourne 16 4.3 Rainfall 16 4.3.1 Potential Implications for Melbourne 17 4.4 Extreme Rainfall 17 4.4.1 Potential Implications for Melbourne 17 4.5 Sea Level Rise 18 4.5.1 Potential Implications for Melbourne 18 4.6 Extreme Wind Speed 18 4.6.1 Potential Implications for Melbourne 18 4.7 Climate Modelling 18 5.0 Socio-economic Changes for City of Melbourne 19 5.1 Population and Demographics 19 5.2 Industry and Employment 19 5.3 Transport Infrastructure 20 5.4 Buildings, Housing and Development 21 5.5 Energy 21 6.0 Urban System Assessment for City of Melbourne 23 6.1 Water 23 6.1.1 Current System State 23 6.1.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts 24 6.2 Transport and Mobility 24 6.2.1 Current System State 24 6.2.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts 25 6.3 Building and Property 25 6.3.1 Current System State 25 6.3.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts 26 6.4 Social, Health and Community 26 6.4.1 Current System State 26 6.4.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts 26 6.5 Business and Industry 26 6.5.1 Current System State 26 6.5.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts 27 6.6 Energy and Telecommunications 27 6.6.1 Current System State 27 6.6.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts 28 6.7 Emergency Services 28 6.7.1 Current System State 28 6.7.2 Potential Climate Change Impacts 28 7.0 Climate Change Risk Management for City of Melbourne 29 7.1 Responding to Climate Change Risks 29 7.2 City of Melbourne Risk Management Framework 29 7.2.1 CoM Risk Management Framework Matrix 29 8.0 Climate Change Risks for City of Melbourne 31 8.1 Drought and Reduced Rainfall 31 8.1.1 CoM Risks Identified and Assessed 32 8.1.2 Cascading Consequences 33 8.1.3 CoM and Municipal Risk Ratings 34 8.1.4 CoM Critical Risks of Drought and Reduced Rainfall 35 8.2 Intense Rainfall and Wind Event 41 4 D R A F T 8.2.1 CoM Risks Identified and Assessed 41 8.2.2 Cascading Consequences 42 8.2.3 CoM and Municipal Risk Ratings 43 8.2.4 CoM Critical Risks of Extreme Rainfall and Wind Storm Event 44 8.3 Extreme Heatwave and Bushfire 50 8.3.1 CoM Risks Identified and Assessed 50 8.3.2 Cascading Consequences 51 8.3.3 CoM and Municipal Risk Ratings 52 8.3.4 CoM Critical Risks of Extreme Heatwave Event 53 8.4 Sea Level Rise 60 8.4.1 Risks Identified and Assessed 60 8.4.2 Cascading Consequences 62 8.4.3 CoM and Municipal Risk Ratings 63 8.4.4 CoM Critical Risks of Sea Level Rise 64 9.0 Adaptation Actions for City of Melbourne 68 9.1 Drought and Reduced Rainfall 68 9.1.1 Adaptation Strategy- Key Themes 68 9.1.2 Actions 68 9.1.3 Adaptation Measures – Short Term 70 9.1.4 Adaptation Measures – Medium Term 71 9.2 Intense Rainfall and Wind Event 72 9.2.1 Adaptation Reponses- Key Themes 72 9.2.2 Actions 72 9.2.3 Adaptation Measures – Short Term 73 9.2.4 Adaptation Measures – Long Term 74 9.3 Heatwave and Bushfire 75 9.3.1 Adaptation Responses- Key Themes 75 9.3.2 Actions 75 9.3.3 Adaptation Measures – Short Term 76 9.3.4 Adaptation Measures – Long Term 77 9.4 Sea Level Rise 78 9.4.1 Adaptation Responses- Key Themes 78 9.4.2 Actions 78 9.4.3 Adaptation Measures – Short Term 79 9.4.4 Adaptation Measures – Long Term 80 10.0 High value adaptations 81 10.1 Expansion of stormwater harvesting and re-use 81 10.2 Develop and Implement a Heatwave Response Action Plan 82 10.3 Tackle the urban heat island effect 82 10.4 Actively plan for to control the consequences of sea level rise 82 10.5 Develop more sophisticated communication and warning systems 82 10.6 Monitor potential CoM liability in relation to responding to climate change 82 11.0 Key Findings 83 11.1 Common adaptations address multiple risks 83 11.2 Shared stakeholder responsibility 83 11.3 Adaptation is under way 84 11.4 The current system state matters 84 11.5 Background climate change cannot be ignored 84 References 85 Appendix A Methodology A Appendix B Non -Critical Risk Table A-1 5 D R A F T Executive Summary Climate Change in Cities The world is warming, and its time to start preparing for the impacts of climate change.