UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI Date:May18,2007 I, _ _A_d_a__m__ S__ic__k_m__il_le__r_______________________________________, hereby submit this work as part of the requirements for the degree of: Master of Community Planning in: College of Design, Architecture, Art, and Planning It is entitled: Social Vulnerability to Natural Disasters: A Study of Skopje, Macedonia This work and its defense approved by: Chair: JohannaLooye,Ph.D. Christopher Auffrey, Ph.D. GaryMiller Social Vulnerability to Natural Disasters: A Study of Skopje, Macedonia A thesis submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Cincinnati in partial fulfillment for the degree of MASTER OF COMMUNITY PLANNING in the School of Planning at the College of Design, Architecture, Art, and Planning by ADAM BYRON SICKMILLER B.S.C., Ohio University, June 2003 Committee Chair: Dr. Johanna Looye Submitted May 2007 ABSTRACT Citizens in developing countries face extreme vulnerability to natural disasters. Disaster vulnerability is exacerbated because of modern human settlement patterns and development priorities. In the West, disaster mitigation techniques rely on science and engineering. In developing countries, resources do not permit this. Therefore, an alternative approach is required. In 1963, an earthquake devastated Skopje, Macedonia. An international response saw the city rebuilt, but today's dramatically different sociopolitical landscape has heightened this city's vulnerability to natural disasters. Based on a 2006 survey of 324 citizens in Skopje, this study profiled earthquake vulnerability in the nation's capital and found that vulnerability varied depending on neighborhood, ethnicity, and income. Feelings of trust in government, a fear of natural disasters, and a sense of fatalism towards the occurrence of disasters varied depending on ethnicity, neighborhood, and income, but not education. The Western approach to natural disasters assumes a stable government, economic power, and cultural appropriateness. Because developing countries do not meet these conditions, disaster preparedness techniques should be community-based and rely on social capital. In Skopje, earthquake preparedness measures must focus on social, not physical vulnerability. Only by building an approach that focuses on communities and education—not regulation and enforcement—will this Balkan city become resilient to the effects of natural disaster. © 2007 Adam Sickmiller iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Without the loving support of my wife, Danielle, the completion of this thesis would have not been possible. Without her, I may have never been a Peace Corps Volunteer nor had the opportunity to experience life in a world outside our own. I am grateful for the continued friendship and professional assistance provided by my research assistant, Mihály Biblijá. Without his help, it is unlikely that the survey in Skopje would have reached fruition. I am indebted to the generous people of Macedonia for making this research possible, including survey participants, my friend Ismail Murseli, and Mr. Goran Trendafiloski at the Institute for Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology at the University of St. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, Macedonia. I would like to thank my academic advisor, Dr. Johanna Looye. Her amazing insight into the world of international development has changed my life professionally and personally. I am very grateful for her feedback and support throughout the thesis process. Thank you to Dr. Christopher Auffrey for his support and guidance, particularly with quantitative analysis. His ability to bring clarity to and extract meaning from statistical data was critical as I compiled the findings for this thesis. I consider myself fortunate to have had the professional support and guidance of Mr. Gary Miller. As an international disaster preparedness professional, Mr. Miller helped clarify and communicate the practical value and applicability of my research to the field of disaster preparedness. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the tremendous impact of the faculty at the School of Planning on my professional goals and my understanding of the communities in which we live. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT......................................................................................................................iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................ v TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................ vi LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................viii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ x CHAPTER 1: WHY DISASTERS? WHY SKOPJE?................................................ 11 CHAPTER 2: THE ROOTS OF MODERN DISASTER PREPAREDNESS........... 14 1868-1964: THE UNITED STATES COMING TO GRIPS WITH VULNERABILITY— PROGRESS, SETBACKS, POLITICS AND SCIENCE................................................. 14 A COMING OF AGE: THE TRANSITION TOWARD MODERN DISASTER PERSPECTIVES ................................................................................................... 22 CHAPTER 3: DISASTERS AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ............................. 31 DISASTER PREPAREDNESS IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH ...................................... 31 STATISTICS REGARDING CONSEQUENCES OF NATURAL DISASTER.................... 33 CAUSES OF VULNERABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES................................. 38 CHAPTER 4: THE CASE AND HISTORY OF MACEDONIA .............................. 43 EARTHQUAKES IN SKOPJE: FROM A RUINED ILLYRIAN COLONY TO A DESTROYED CAPITAL ............................................................................................................ 43 POLITICAL AND ETHNIC BACKGROUND OF MACEDONIA AND YUGOSLAVIA ..... 54 IMPLICATIONS FOR DISASTER PLANNING .......................................................... 62 vi CHAPTER 5: A METHOD BY WHICH TO STUDY SKOPJE’S VULNERABILITY TODAY ......................................................................................... 64 PURPOSE AND DESIGN OF STUDY ...................................................................... 64 SAMPLING ......................................................................................................... 68 DATA COLLECTION ........................................................................................... 77 DATA ANALYSIS................................................................................................ 79 CHAPTER 6: IS SKOPJE PREPARED? .................................................................... 83 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW........................................................................ 83 COMPARING DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE SAMPLE WITH CENSUS DATA.................. 84 BASIC FINDINGS: A SKETCH OF SKOPJE’S VULNERABILITY .............................. 91 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NEIGHBORHOOD AND PREPAREDNESS................ 96 TRUST IN GOVERNMENT AND FEELINGS OF FEAR AND FATALISM ................... 115 BRIEF ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF QUALITATIVE DATA ............................ 126 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................. 130 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH............................................... 140 APPENDICES APPENDIX A: SURVEY INSTRUMENT................................................................ 142 APPENDIX B: FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS FROM QUESTIONNAIRE................... 146 APPENDIX C: HYPOTHESIS TESTING ................................................................. 188 APPENDIX D: SPSS REGRESSION OUTPUTS....................................................... 198 REFERENCE LIST………………………...................................................................204 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH OF AUTHOR.............................................................. 210 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Lives Affected Worldwide by Disasters.........................................................34 Figure 2. Deaths Caused by Natural Disasters ..............................................................35 Figure 3. The Financial Consequences of Disaster........................................................37 Figure 4. Urban Population Growth Worldwide.............................................................39 Figure 5. Rubble from Non-reinforced Masonry Building.............................................45 Figure 6. Local School After Quake. Reprinted from UNDP.........................................45 Figure 7. Some Traditional Wood-Framed Buildings Remained Intact........................46 Figure 8. Several Countries Donated Complete Prefabricated Settlements.. ................49 Figure 9. Prefabricated Structures from Italy. ...............................................................50 Figure 10. The Geography of the First and Second Yugoslavias. ..................................55 Figure 11. The ten neighborhoods that comprise the City of Skopje, overlaid with Skopje’s urbanized areas...............................................................................70 Figure 12. An overview of Skopje's housing stock, organized by neighborhood. ........71 Figure 13: Geographic (Neighborhood-Based) Distribution of Respondents ................74 Figure 14. Percentage of Ethnic Macedonian Respondents Compared with Percentage of Ethnic Macedonian in Skopje Population.....................................................85