The Politics of Foreign Military Bases by J. Wellington Brown Department of Political Science Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Kyle Beardsley, Co-Advisor ___________________________ Peter Feaver, Co-Advisor ___________________________ Joseph Grieco ___________________________ Daniel Bolger Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science in the Graduate School of Duke University 2020 i v ABSTRACT The Politics of Foreign Military Bases by J. Wellington Brown Department of Political Science Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Kyle Beardsley, Co-Advisor ___________________________ Peter Feaver, Co-Advisor ___________________________ Joseph Grieco ___________________________ Daniel Bolger An abstract of a dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science in the Graduate School of Duke University 2020 i v Copyright by J. Wellington Brown 2020 Abstract Foreign military bases are anomalies in a world of sovereign states. Why do major powers station their finite military forces to protect other countries and how does the distribution of these bases relate to a country’s grand strategy? Why do host-nations give up their sovereignty and allow foreign forces, capable of existential violence, to deploy within their borders? This dissertation takes a mixed method approach to each of these questions. For the first, I combine descriptive case studies relating the basing postures of five major powers and to their respective grand strategies with a quantitative analysis of the correlates of the US military basing network. To answer the second, I test the role of host-nation security conditions on US military access and then conduct an in-depth process tracing of US-Philippine basing relations. I find that foreign military bases are essential for super-power status and are an arena for great power competition. I conclude that the US foreign basing posture is strongly aligned with American trade relationships and against US enemies. For host-nation motivations, I conclude that security threats to the host-nation matter, but not uniformly. External threats have the greatest influence in increasing foreign military access, but low-intensity revolutionary threats actually tend to decrease a host-nation’s willingness to accommodate foreign forces. iv Dedication This work is dedicated to the Lord God who brought the peace that passes understanding in my dark night of the soul. v Disclaimer The opinions and assertions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force or the Department of Defense. vi Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................. iv Disclaimer .............................................................................................................. vi Contents ................................................................................................................ vii List of Tables .......................................................................................................... x List of Figures ........................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgements ............................................................................................... xii 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Why Build Foreign Bases? ............................................................................ 7 1.2 Why Allow Foreign Bases? ......................................................................... 12 1.3 Defining Military Bases ............................................................................... 25 1.4 Types of Foreign Bases ............................................................................... 32 1.4.1 Basing Level Typology ......................................................................... 34 1.4.1 Interest Balance Typology .................................................................... 39 1.4.2 Are Foreign Bases Consensual? ............................................................ 43 2. Major Powers and Foreign Military Bases ....................................................... 47 2.1 Russia .......................................................................................................... 48 2.2 United Kingdom .......................................................................................... 56 2.3 France .......................................................................................................... 64 2.4 China ............................................................................................................ 72 2.5 The United States ......................................................................................... 80 2.5.1 US Bases in Europe ............................................................................... 85 2.5.2 US Bases in Asia ................................................................................... 87 vii 2.5.3 US Bases in the Middle East ................................................................. 91 2.5.4 US Bases in Africa ................................................................................ 94 2.5.5 US Bases in Latin America ................................................................... 99 2.6 Lessons about Sending-State Motivation .................................................. 101 3. American Grand Strategy and the Correlates of US Military Basing ............. 109 3.1 Measuring US Foreign Basing .................................................................. 111 3.2 Theoretical Correlates of US Military Basing ........................................... 112 3.2.1 Security ................................................................................................ 112 3.2.2 Geography ........................................................................................... 116 3.2.3 Ideology ............................................................................................... 117 3.2.4 Economics ........................................................................................... 119 3.3 Data & Models ........................................................................................... 122 3.3.1 US Foreign Basing and Eras of American Grand Strategy ................. 129 3.4 Conclusion ................................................................................................. 133 4. Host-Nation Motivations: Security Conditions and Foreign Military Access 136 4.2 Security Conditions and Foreign Military Access ..................................... 136 4.3 Empirical Test ............................................................................................ 143 4.3.1 Dependent Variable ............................................................................. 143 4.3.2 Independent Variables ......................................................................... 147 4.3.3 Control Variables ................................................................................ 151 Conflict Propensity .......................................................................................... 151 4.3.4 Models ................................................................................................. 154 4.3.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 164 viii 5. The Philippines 1965-2013: A Within-Case Comparison .............................. 166 5.1 Methodology .............................................................................................. 168 5.2.1 Why the Philippines? .......................................................................... 171 5.2 Prelude: The History of US Military Bases in the Philippines .................. 175 5.3 The 1947 Military Basing Agreement: Dependent Independence ............ 180 5.4 The 1979 MBA: Revolutionary Threat & Reduced US Access ................ 183 5.5 The 1983 Extension: Increasing Intensity & Continued US Access ......... 193 5.6 The 1988 "Open Options" Policy and the Dual Revolutionary Threat ..... 196 5.7 The 1991 Post-Cold War Peace and the End of US Military Bases .......... 201 5.7.1 Alternative Explanations and Other Factors ....................................... 210 5.8 The 1998 VFA: The Return Great Power Conflict...and GI Joe ............... 215 5.9 Epilogue ..................................................................................................... 222 5.10 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 225 6. Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 228 6.1 Academic Contribution .............................................................................. 230 6.2 Limitations & Extensions .......................................................................... 232 6.3 Policy Implications and Recommendations .............................................. 236 Appendix A: Selected Interviews ......................................................................