PROGRESSION OF COLLEGE STUDENTS IN LONDON TO HIGHER EDUCATION 2011 - 2014 Sharon Smith, Hugh Joslin and Jill Jameson Prepared for Linking London by the HIVE-PED Research Team, Centre for Leadership and Enterprise in the Faculty of Education and Health at the University of Greenwich Authors: Sharon Smith, Hugh Joslin and Professor Jill Jameson Centre for Leadership and Enterprise, Faculty of Education and Health University of Greenwich The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Linking London, its member organisations or its sponsors. Linking London Birkbeck, University of London BMA House Tavistock Square London WC1H 9JP http://www.linkinglondon.ac.uk January 2017 Linking London Partners – Birkbeck, University of London; Brunel University, London; GSM London; Goldsmiths, University of London; King’s College London; Kingston University, London; London South Bank University; Middlesex University; Ravensbourne; Royal Central School for Speech and Drama; School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London; University College London; University of East London; University of Greenwich; University of Westminster; Barnet and Southgate College; Barking and Dagenham College; City and Islington College; City of Westminster College; The College of Enfield, Haringey and North East London; Harrow College; Haringey Sixth Form College; Havering College of Further and Higher Education; Hillcroft College; Kensington and Chelsea College; Lambeth College; Lewisham Southwark College; London South East Colleges; Morley College; Newham College of Further Education; Newham Sixth Form College; Quintin Kynaston; Sir George Monoux College; Uxbridge College; Waltham Forest College; Westminster Kingsway College; City and Guilds; London Councils Young People’s Education and Skills Board; Open College Network London; Pearson Education Ltd; TUC Unionlearn 2 Foreword It gives me great pleasure to introduce this report to you on the progression of college students in London to higher education for the years 2011 - 2014. This is the third report on the progression of college students in London that we have commissioned from Hugh, Sharon and Jill at the University of Greenwich. The second one, you will remember, covered the years 2007 -2012. With our first report, we are now getting to the point of having almost a decade worth of data to explore. This is important as it allows us to see what is happening both to the students in further education and their destinations. We apologise for the delay in getting this report to you but there have been circumstances beyond our control which meant a slight delay. I would like to thank our sponsors for funding this report: Birkbeck, University of London, Goldsmiths, University of London, King's College London and Kingston University London. I also need to thank the HEFCE National Networks for Collaborative Outreach (NNCO) project for supporting this important data work. The headline findings of this report are in the executive summary but I encourage you to read the whole report to understand the changing picture of college progression in London. The disappearing adult learner is a theme Further Education shares with some of Higher Education. Perhaps Higher and Degree Apprenticeships, which can be undertaken at a level at, or below, one's current qualification, might start to address this deficit. Significantly the decline in the number of eighteen year-olds in the system does not bottom out until 2020. All this suggests more flexible models of higher level study are needed to reach those millions of learners already in work whose highest qualification is a level 3. Increasing our productivity and improving social mobility can go hand in hand. We will continue working with our partners to support the success of college students as they progress through the system during this time of great changes in education. Working together to create pathways for progression, supported by good data, has to be the way forward. Thank you to Hugh, Sharon and Jill, I commend this report to you. Sue Betts Director - Linking London January 2017 3 Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................................................. 3 Contents .............................................................................................................................................. 4 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. 7 1. Executive summary ...................................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Key Results .................................................................................................................... 8 2. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Longitudinal research ................................................................................................ 15 2.2 London educational context and prior attainment at age 16 ................................. 16 2.3 Demographic context ................................................................................................ 17 2.4 Progression to higher education in London ............................................................. 18 2.5 Spotlight on Access to HE and BTEC ......................................................................... 19 2.6 Terminology ............................................................................................................... 20 3. Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 22 3.1 Tracking cohorts of students ..................................................................................... 22 3.2 The ILR ........................................................................................................................ 23 3.3 Tracking HE achievement .......................................................................................... 23 3.4 Statistical note ............................................................................................................ 23 4. Characteristics of the London college student cohorts .............................................................. 24 4.1 Age .............................................................................................................................. 24 4.2 Qualifications .............................................................................................................. 24 4.3 Age and Level 3 qualification type ............................................................................ 25 4.4 Breakdown by sex ...................................................................................................... 26 4.5 Sex and Level 3 qualification type ............................................................................. 27 4.6 FE and Sixth Form Colleges ........................................................................................ 27 4.7 Breakdown of the cohort figures by individual college ........................................... 28 4.8 Breakdown of the cohorts by London borough ....................................................... 30 4.9 London borough and age breakdown ....................................................................... 31 4.10 London borough and Level 3 qualification breakdown ........................................ 32 4.11 Breakdown of the cohorts by educational disadvantage ..................................... 33 4.12 Disadvantage and qualifications studied .............................................................. 35 4.13 Disadvantage and London borough ...................................................................... 35 4.14 Level 3 sector subject areas ................................................................................... 37 4.15 Ethnic breakdown of the tracked cohorts ............................................................ 38 4 4.16 Ethnic group and age breakdown ......................................................................... 39 4.17 London borough breakdown of BME students .................................................... 39 4.18 Ethnic group and Level 3 qualification type.......................................................... 41 4.19 Ethnic group and Level 3 subject area studied by under 20s .............................. 43 4.20 Ethnic group and sex breakdown .......................................................................... 44 4.21 Ethnic group and provider type ............................................................................. 44 4.22 Ethnic group and disadvantage ............................................................................. 45 5. Spotlight on BTEC student characteristics .................................................................................. 46 5.1 BTEC Level 3 students by BTEC grade, 2011-2013 ................................................... 46 5.2 BTEC qualification breakdown by ethnic group ....................................................... 47 5.3 BTEC population by qualification and provider type ................................................ 48 5.4 BTEC population breakdown by qualification and sex ............................................