LIBYA’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL DEFEATING JIHADIST NETWORKS September 2015 ! ! ! TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD 3 ESSAY ONE COMPETING JIHADIST ORGANISATIONS AND NETWORKS 6 Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Ansar al-Sharia in Libya Stefano Torelli and Arturo Varvelli ESSAY TWO POLITICAL PARTY OR ARMED FACTION? 31 The Future of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood Valentina Colombo, Giuseppe Dentice and Arturo Varvelli ESSAY THREE MAPPING RADICAL ISLAMIST MILITIAS IN LIBYA 53 Wolfgang Pusztai and Arturo Varvelli ESSAY FOUR THE EXPLOITATION OF MIGRATION ROUTES TO EUROPE 73 Human Trafficking Through Areas of Libya Affected by Fundamentalism Nancy Porsia ABOUT THE AUTHORS 87 BIBLIOGRAPHY 89 2 LIBYA’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL DEFEATING JIHADIST NETWORKS LIBYA’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL 3 DEFEATING JIHADIST NETWORKS FOREWORD ! ! This publication is a compilation of four different essays, edited by Dr. Arturo Varvelli PhD, which from part of a series of studies undertaken by EFD to analyse the nature and spread of the phenomenon of radicalisation in the European Eastern and Southern neighbourhoods. It focuses on Libya and assesses the current situation on the ground through a number of diverse and varied prisms. It identifies patterns and trends as well as specific local and regional developments in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the situation of radicalisation in post-Ghadaffi Libya and the extent to which this may be contributing to regional as well as international instability Months of acute political turmoil in Libya following the fall of the Qaddafi regime, compounded by a weak national identity as well as legacies from the civil war in 2011 which ended Qaddafi’s 42-year rule, have resulted in Libya becoming a failed state with a strong radical Islamist presence. As a result, the country has become a safe haven for local, regional and international Jihadist groups including Al-Qaeda (AQ), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and so- called Islamic State (IS), among others. The result is a security vacuum in the country which threatens regional stability and by extension Europe’s too. In their essay ‘Competing Jihadist Organisations and Networks’ Stefano Torelli and Arturo Varvelli provide an overview of the main Jihadist networks, their modus operandi and strategies as well as those of other groups and organisations in Libya that are vying for control. They also undertake an analysis of which groups are gaining and which are losing. The authors also examine the regional connections in relation to Algeria and Tunisia and demonstrate the interconnectedness between and among the various groups. In their essay ‘Political Party or Armed Faction? The Future of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood’ authors Valentina Colombo, Giuseppe Dentice and Arturo Varvelli explore in detail the role of the organisation within the Libyan political firmament. They argue that the Brotherhood is weaker in Libya than in other Arab states, where their traditional welfare activities have had limited importance there. In a reinvention of their role, the Libyan MB has distanced itself from the more extreme jihadi actors, who have not yet renounced violence. In its attempt to reassert internal control, the MB has aimed to strengthen links with society and foster credibility at the international level. This essay evaluates the influence of regional and local factors, including the diverse ideological, political, economic, social and historical contexts of the MB’s presence in Libya. It analyses the Libyan MB’s attitude towards terrorist groups, democratic processes and the reconciliation talks envisaged by the UN. It also draws 4 LIBYA’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL DEFEATING JIHADIST NETWORKS conclusions about the potential of the MB and its military affiliates vis-à-vis gaining and maintaining strength in the country. Following Libya’s 2011 civil war many armed groups emerged. They still survive as both official and non-official military units. Although some constitute potential recruitment basins for Islamic State, others could in fact deter its expansion. As jihadist forces gain in relevance, a full understanding of the underlining dynamics requires careful evaluation of the diverse galaxy of Libyan ‘Islamist’ militias. Actors on the ground follow geographical, ideological and historical divisions, presenting differences in tactics, objectives and narratives - as well as contradicting similarities. In their essay ‘Mapping Libya’s Radical Islamist Militias’, authors Wolfgang Pusztai and Arturo Varvelli undertake a comprehensive review of radical Islamist militias in the country before examining differentiating patterns of militancy, tactics and trends, attitudes of tribal groups towards Islamism and goals of jihadist militias, as well as explaining the competing definitions of the term ‘radical Islamists’. In her essay, Nancy Porsia analyses the phenomenon of people-trafficking in Libya and assesses whether migrant routes to Europe are at risk of fundamentalist infiltration. According to documents written by the group's supporters, Islamic State militants are planning a takeover of Libya as a ‘gateway’ to waging war across the whole of southern Europe. Security officials are aware of the possibility that people-trafficking boats may be used to smuggle fighters into Europe. Even if the claims of the militants regarding the use of migrant boats seem exaggerated, Islamic State appears to be a growing threat in Libya and the risk of such infiltration remains plausible. Porsia discusses how radical Islamist groups may have approached the human trafficking market by capitalising on rows between and among brokers. If confirmed, this should be analysed in the context of the expansion of Islamic fundamentalist ideology across the entire MENA region, in combination with the economic crisis in Libya that has resulted from the current crisis in the oil industry. LIBYA’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL 5 DEFEATING JIHADIST NETWORKS 6 LIBYA’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL DEFEATING JIHADIST NETWORKS ESSAY ONE COMPETING JIHADIST ORGANISATIONS AND NETWORKS Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Ansar al-Sharia in Libya Stefano Torelli and Arturo Varvelli Islamic State (IS) is only the most recent terrorist group to have found a place in Libya and the Maghreb. The jihadist panorama in Libya is very broad. In recent years various Salafi jihadist networks have found refuge there. The months’ long period of extreme crisis in Libya has deep causes and distant origins, which range from a weak Libyan national identity to legacies from the civil war of 2011, which did not end with the death of Qaddafi and the fall of his regime. One of the main and very concrete consequences of this instability has been the transformation of Libya into a failed state with a strong radical Islamist presence. Islamic identity arose as the preponderant element after the fall of the regime. With everyone identifying themselves as Muslim and little conflict in the doctrinal sphere (there is no sectarian division as Libyan Islam adheres to the Maliki school), Islam emerged as a legitimising element in society and also in politics. At the same time competition to represent this element arose between the new political parties, revitalised religious figures (such as the grand mufti) and radical groups of various origins. Among these representatives are explicitly jihadist groups which are trying to impose the creation of a caliphate in Libya on the population, even if this means using force. The semi-anarchic Libya is experiencing a very worrying phenomenon: it has quickly become a safe haven for local, foreign (i.e. Tunisian and Egyptian) and international jihadist groups, such as Al-Qaeda (AQ), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Islamic State (IS). The new regional scenario is fostering more assertive and more radical positions within Libyan jihadism, which is thought to be the target of ‘external plots’ that aim to undermine its post-revolutionary achievements. LIBYA’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL 7 DEFEATING JIHADIST NETWORKS The Libyan jihadist situation is very volatile but the internationalisation of some local groups, such as Ansar al-Sharia in Libya (ASL), has become more evident. The various militias, groups and networks appear to be interlinked. While foreign and international networks seem to have different aims and there is growing competition for the power they hold, tactical convergence on specific targets and goals is increasingly probable. As mentioned in a RAND Corporation report,1 several other Salafi jihadist groups enjoy sanctuary in Libya: the Muhammad Jamal Network (from Egypt), which has established a presence in northern areas such as Benghazi and Derna; Mokhtar Belmokhtar’s al-Murabitun in the south-west near Ghat, Awbari and Tasawah; AQIM in parts of south-western and north-eastern Libya; and Ansar al-Sharia Tunisia (AST) in areas including Zuwarah, Darna and Ajdabiya. Elsewhere in North Africa, Mokhtar Belmokhtar’s al-Murabitun has established a presence in an arc of territory that includes Algeria, Libya, Mali, Niger and Mauritania. THE SECURITY VACUUM AND THE POLARISATION OF THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE On 27 January 2015, Islamist militants stormed the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli, killing 10 people. The attack has been attributed to a self-proclaimed IS cell in Tripoli. On 15 February 2015 a five-minute video was published, showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians on a beach on the southern Mediterranean coast, probably in the Libyan city of Sirte. These actions