TØI report 1700/2019 Vibeke Nenseth Alice Ciccone Niels Buus Kristensen Societal consequences of automated vehicles Norwegian scenarios TØI Report 1700/2019 Societal consequences of automated vehicles – Norwegian Scenarios Vibeke Nenseth Alice Ciccone Niels Buus Kristensen Front-page photography/illustration: Shutterstock ISSN 2535-5104 Electronic ISBN 978-82-480-2237-4 Electronic Oslo, June 2019 Tittel: Samfunnsmessige konsekvenser av Title: Societal consequences of automated vehicles - automatiserte kjøretøy - norske scenarioer Norwegian scenarios Forfattere: Vibeke Nenseth Authors: Vibeke Nenseth Alice Ciccone Alice Ciccone Niels Buus Kristensen Niels Buus Kristensen Dato: 06.2019 Date: 06.2019 TØI-rapport: 1700/2019 TØI Report: 1700/2019 Sider: 57 Pages: 57 ISSN elektronisk: 2535-5104 ISSN Electronic: 2535-5104 ISBN elektronisk: 978-82-480-2237-4 ISBN Electronic: 978-82-480-2237-4 Finansieringskilde: Rogaland fylkeskommune Financed by: Rogaland fylkeskommune Prosjekt: 4623 - Autokjør Project: 4623 - Autokjør Prosjektleder: Vibeke Nenseth Project Manager: Vibeke Nenseth Kvalitetsansvarlig: Alena Katharina Høye Quality Manager: Alena Katharina Høye Fagfelt: Atferd og transport Research Area: Behaviour and transport Emneord: Automatisering Keywords: Automation Selvkjørende kjøretøy Automated vehicles Scenarier Scenarios Samfunnsmessige Societal consequences konsekvenser Sammendrag: Summary: Automatiserte kjøretøy og litteraturen om dem er i rask vekst. Automated vehicles, and the literature thereof, are in rapid Forventningene er at de vil gi bedre individuell mobilitet og growth. Improved mobility and traffic safety and reduced trafikksikkerhet og redusere transportens miljøbyrder. Samtidig environmental burden are expected. However, automated forventes betydelig mer kjøring og lengre distanser som vil kunne vehicles might increase driving remarkably, inferring more gi mer trengsel, byspredning, redusert kollektivtransport og mindre congestion, urban sprawl, reduced public transport and less aktiv mobilitet. Samfunnsmessige konsekvenser av automatiserte active mobility. Societal impacts depend on ownership and kjøretøy vil avhenge av eierstrukturen, av bruksmønsteret og usage of the automated vehicles, and the policies to restrict or hvilken politikk som føres for å begrense eller legge til rette for support the various private, shared or public schemes. This is private, delte eller kollektive ordninger. Dette avgjøres ikke av not determined by technology. To exploit the possibilities and teknologi. For å utnytte mulighetene og takle utfordringene kreves cope with the challenges an active and differentiated en fortsatt aktiv og differensiert politikkutforming. Private policymaking will be necessary. Private automated cars will be selvkjørende biler egner seg i spredtbygde strøk, mens best suited in rural areas, whereas automated buses, trams selvkjørende busser og baner egner seg for kollektivtransportens and trains are best suited along the main public transport grid. hovedlinjer. Spørsmålet er hvor og for hvem samkjøring med små The question is where and for whom ridesharing with small selvkjørende minibusser i kollektivselskapenes regi vil egne seg automated minibuses run by the public transport companies best. På norsk er det disse kjøretøyene og ordningene vi allerede will be the most appropriate. These, already familiar, schemes kjenner best og som antakelig vil bli videreutviklet først. will probably be the point of departure for the further development in the Norwegian context. Language of report: English (last chapter Norwegian) Transportøkonomisk Institutt Institute of Transport Economics Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo Gaustadalléen 21, N-0349 Oslo, Norway Telefon 22 57 38 00 - www.toi.no Telephone +47 22 57 38 00 - www.toi.no Copyright © Transportøkonomisk institutt, 2019 Denne publikasjonen er vernet i henhold til Åndsverkloven av 1961 Ved gjengivelse av materiale fra publikasjonen, må fullstendig kilde oppgis Societal consequences of automated vehicles – Norwegian scenarios Preface In summer 2018 TØI won a bid for a regionally funded project on “Scenarios for societal consequences of automated vehicles”. TØI’s research team has consisted of the economists Alice Ciccone and Niels Buus Kristensen and sociologist Vibeke Nenseth, with the latter as the project leader. The report is discussed and written in close cooperation in the project team. Alice Ciccone has been responsible for the systematic literature review, has written chapter 3 and has contributed in chapter 1. Niels Buus Kristensen has intensively commented and contributed in all chapters. Julie Runde Krogstad and Nils Fearnley have provided input on smart mobility and challenges for public transport. Secretary Trude Kvalsvik has clarified and finished the report for publishing. The project has been discussed and developed through montly workshops with regional stakeholders, providing valuable input and feedback during the project period. Oslo, June 2019 Institute of Transport Economics Gunnar Lindberg Alena Katharina Høye Managing Director Research Director Copyright © Institute of Transport Economics, 2019 o Societal consequences of automated vehicles – Norwegian scenarios Content Summary Sammendrag 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Purpose of the study ....................................................................................................... 1 1.3 The structure of the report ............................................................................................ 1 2 Central terms and policy goals ............................................................................. 3 2.1 Central terms – definition and operationalisation ...................................................... 3 2.2 Policy strategies for automated driving at European, national and regional levels 7 3 Literature review – state of the art ....................................................................... 9 3.1 Review methodology ....................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Results from the literature: Approaches and Methods ............................................ 11 3.3 Topics .............................................................................................................................. 11 3.4 Research gaps ................................................................................................................. 20 4 Scenario analysis – steps and criteria ................................................................. 21 4.1 The scenario methodology – definition and development...................................... 21 4.2 Scenario development methods: Steps and tools ..................................................... 22 4.3 Scenario analyses for future transport ........................................................................ 23 4.4 Review of previous scenario analyses of automated vehicles ................................. 24 4.5 The scenario criteria selected ....................................................................................... 32 5 Five possible scenarios and their societal impacts ............................................ 35 5.1 Individual AVs for all: Unrestricted individual mobility ......................................... 36 5.2 Curbed congestion: Restricted urban car use ............................................................ 38 5.3 The ‘AVs in Carsharing’ scenario ................................................................................ 41 5.4 The ‘AVs in the Ridesharing’ scenario ....................................................................... 43 5.5 The intensified ‘public transport’ scenario ................................................................ 45 5.6 The scenarios seen together ......................................................................................... 47 5.7 Time expectations: Introduction and further implementation ............................... 49 5.8 Policy implications......................................................................................................... 51 6 References .......................................................................................................... 52 Copyright © Institute of Transport Economics, 2019 o Summary Societal consequences of automated vehicles – Norwegian scenarios TØI Report 1700/2019 Authors: Vibeke Nenseth, Alice Ciccone & Niels Buus Kristensen Oslo 2019: 57 pages English language Along with the ongoing rapid development of automation in transport, the literature on automated vehicles is overwhelmingly increasing. Overall, it is suggested that automated vehicles will have a great potential in improving individual mobility and traffic safety and reducing environmental burden, whereas goals of less driving and more active mobility will be challenged. The first automated vehicles are already driving around in some designated Norwegian settings. They have set a new agenda, highlighting the need for active preparation, not reactively waiting for the further technological progress. Steering the future direction depends on dedicated policies and organisational facilitation. Will the automated vehicles be private, shared or public and used for private or rideshared trips? Where, when and with