GLOBAL ASIA In Focus GLOBAL ASIA Vol. 12, No. 1, Spring 2017 In Focus The essays in this section are based on findings of the Battle for Influence: latest edition of the Asian Barometer Survey, an applied research program Perceptions in Asia that aims to gauge public opinion on issues such as political values, democracy, of China and the US and governance across Asia. In Focus The program’s regional survey network encompasses research teams from 13 East Asian states and five South Asian countries. Together, it covers virtually all major political systems in the region. Find out more at 104 112 118 www.asianbarometer.org Yun-han Chu & Kai-Ping Huang Min-Hua Huang & Yu-tzung Chang & Bridget Welsh Mark Weatherall Policy-makers take The battle for soft- Ideology, culture and note: the latest Asian power supremacy domestic politics all Barometer Survey among Great Powers play a role in how shows tectonic shifts in East Asia holds people in Asian in the perceptions of surprises with countries view the Asians toward the regards to the super-powers’ United States and a relative influences of influence. China may rising China. China and the US. be gaining an edge. 102 103 GLOBAL ASIA In Focus Battle for Influence: Perceptions in Asia of China and the US GLOBAL ASIA Vol. 12, No. 1, Spring 2017 1 Note: The perceived distance between China and one’s own of democratic development (where 1 represents “completely Democratic Distance and country is calculated for each respondent by taking the difference undemocratic” and 10 “completely democratic”) and where one between where one places one’s own country on a 10-point scale places China on the same scale. Asian Views of Chinese and American Influence FIGURE 1 CORRELATION OF FAVORABLE PeRcePTIONS OF US AND CHIneSE InFLUence ON THE ReGION Source: Asian Barometer Survey Wave 4 (2014-16) Respondents were asked their perceptions of China’s and the US’s influence and the results correlated By Min-Hua Huang against three contextual factors. Positive and negative scores correspond to positive or negative correlations. 0.6 0.6 & Mark Weatherall China US 0.4 0.4 0.2 Cultural 0.2 distance Economic from China openness 0 0 In Focus: In Focus: Ideology, culture and domestic IN recenT years, citizens in Asia have become Perceived Economic Perceived Cultural politics all play a role in how increasingly aware of China’s political, economic democratic openness democratic distance and military rise, and concerned about the impact -0.2 distance -0.2 distance from the US from China from the US people in Asian countries view on their own societies. But perceptions about Chi- the influence of the United na’s rise and its impact on the region are deter- -0.4 -0.4 Huang & Weatherall XXXXXXX States and China. In the most mined by a multitude of factors, including con- recent Asian Barometer Survey, textual factors and domestic cleavages. In addi- tion, since the rise of China challenges the United the three factors are all at work, States as the pre-eminent power in the region, it China’s influence; the reverse is true for the US. tive terms. This suggests that China’s one-party write Min-Hua Huang and Mark is also important to measure how people view the Finally, in societies with major domestic cleav- authoritarian system is no longer an obstacle to Weatherall, but China may be influence of the US in the region. ages related to the political, economic or cultural its ascendance in the region. gaining an edge as views of the In terms of contextual factors, data from the impact of China or the US, we observe greater Previous studies have shown that East Asian Fourth Wave of the Asian Barometer Survey polarization over the evaluations of the influence citizens may view China’s rapidly growing econ- US could suffer under President (ABS) show that three factors are primary influ- of the two countries. omy as either a threat or an opportunity. For Donald Trump and China’s ences on the way that citizens in each country instance, some might blame cheap Chinese economic strength makes up for view the influence of China and the US: political CONTexTUAL FACTORS imports for making domestic producers uncom- concerns about its authoritarian ideology, economic openness and cultural values. In Figure 1, we identify three contextual factors petitive, while others may benefit from access However, these general contextual explanations that influence perceptions of the influence of to cheaper consumer goods or the opportuni- political system. are also subject to the influence of domestic polit- China and the US in the region. The first factor ties provided by Chinese investment. We meas- ical cleavages centered on issues such as national is political ideology, measured as the perceived ure this by taking the aggregated mean of sup- security and the distribution of economic benefits, democratic distance between one’s own country portive attitudes toward economic openness in as well as ethnic divisions within societies. and China and the US.1 We find there is no rela- each country. As Figure 1 shows, supporting eco- At a national level, political ideology, meas- tionship between perceived democratic distance nomic openness at the national level is associ- ured as perceived democratic distance between and positive perceptions of China’s influence ated with positive evaluations of China, but neg- the surveyed country and either China or the US, across the 13 country samples. However, when atively associated with positive evaluations of has a strong positive effect on favorable evalua- we apply the same measure to the perceived dem- the US. This suggests that many citizens in the tions of America, but no effect on favorable eval- ocratic distance between one’s own country and region view China, rather than the US, as the uations of China. At the same time, economic the US, we find a strong positive correlation. This main driver of regional integration and greater openness has a positive effect on evaluations of indicates that many Asians still look to America economic openness, and when citizens view China, but a negative effect on evaluations of the as a model of democracy, an important factor in these developments as an opportunity rather US. The cultural distance between each of the determining whether the influence of the US is than a threat, they are more likely to view China surveyed countries and China and the US also viewed in positive or negative terms. In contrast, in positive terms. has a divergent effect on citizens’ evaluations of perceived levels of democratic distance make no Cultural proximity is another salient factor in the two countries — a closer cultural distance to difference to whether the influence of authori- views of China and the US. Logically, we would China is associated with more positive views of tarian China is perceived in positive or nega- expect that people in countries that are cultur- 118 119 GLOBAL ASIA In Focus Battle for Influence: Perceptions in Asia of China and the US GLOBAL ASIA Vol. 12, No. 1, Spring 2017 2 This finding may be related to the measures we use for cultural comparative data for the US, we measure cultural proximity to the proximity. For cultural proximity to China, we measure the distance US through scores on a battery of questions measuring liberal (either positive or negative) between each country and China on a democratic values, assuming that greater adherence to liberal battery of items measuring traditionalism. However, since we lack democratic values indicates closer cultural proximity to the US. FIGURE 2 PeRcePTIONS OF THE InFLUence OF CHINA AND THE US ON THE ReGION BY ‘PRO-CHINA’ AND ‘AnTI-CHINA’ PARTISAN GROUPS IN THRee ASIAN DemOCRACIES Source: Asian Barometer Survey Wave 4 (2014-16) Levels of favorable perception of the US Levels of favorable perception of China among pro-China and anti-China camps: among pro-China and anti-China camps: 100 100 ally in tune with China or the US would be more advocated closer ties with Beijing. However, in % % predisposed to view the role of China or the US in Taiwan, the reverse is true, with the main liberal positive terms. As Figure 1 illustrates, this is true party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), 80 80 for people in countries that are culturally closer adopting a more anti-China platform, while its to China (shown by a lower average score on the conservative rival, the Kuomintang (KMT), has vertical axis). Surprisingly, this does not apply for pushed for closer ties with Beijing. How do the 60 60 In Focus: In Focus: the US — citizens in countries that are culturally traditional party platforms affect the attitudes of proximate to the US are actually less favorably their supporters toward China and the US? First, disposed to American influence in the region.2 in Taiwan, there is a large gap in favorable views of China between supporters of the DPP and 40 40 DOmeSTIC DIVISION AND ATTITUDES supporters of the KMT, showing the continued Huang & Weatherall XXXXXXX TOWARDS CHINA AND THE US importance of the China factor in Taiwan. How- Factors such as political ideology, economic ever, we find no such gap in either South Korea or 20 20 openness and cultural values have an impact Japan, with South Korean citizens generally hold- on attitudes toward China and the US at the ing positive views of Chinese influence regard- national level. However, this does not explain dif- less of their partisan preferences, while their 0 0 ferences in attitudes within each country. As this counterparts in Japan consistently view Chinese Taiwan* South Korea* Japan* Taiwan* South Korea Japan section will show, the populations within many influence in negative terms.