International Strategy for Disaster Reduction RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NATURAL DISASTERS AND POVERTY: A FIJI CASE STUDY SOPAC Miscellaneous Report 678 April 2009 A report prepared for the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat’s 2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Reduction *Prepared by Padma Narsey Lal, Reshika Singh and Paula Holland Financial support from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is gratefully acknowledged. GFDRR is a partnership between Australia, Canada, Denmark, European Commission, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the World Bank. *Padma Lal is the Chief Technical Adviser at the IUCN, Fiji. Reshika Singh is a Natural Resource Economist with SOPAC. Paula Holland is the Manager; Natural Resource Governance with SOPAC. Picture on the front cover is courtesy of Nigel Dowdeswell. SOPAC Miscellaneous Report 678 Report SOPAC Miscellaneous 2 International Strategy for Disaster Reduction RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NATURAL DISASTERS AND POVERTY: A FIJI CASE STUDY April 2009 SOPAC Miscellaneous Report 678 Prepared by Padma Narsey Lal, Reshika Singh and Paula Holland A report prepared for the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat’s 2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Reduction SOPAC Miscellaneous Report 678 SOPAC Miscellaneous 3 CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................................................ 7 ACRONYMS................................................................................................................................. 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................. 9 PREFACE.................................................................................................................................... 15 1. INTRODUCTION: HAZARDS, DISASTERS AND POVERTY........................................................... 16 1.1 Basic concepts............................................................................................................................................. 16 1.2 The link between disaster risk and poverty...................................................................................................... 20 1.3 This study.................................................................................................................................................... 21 2. LINK BETWEEN DISASTERS AND POVERTY - METHOD............................................................ 22 2.1 Method used in the Fiji case study................................................................................................................. 23 3. DISASTER AND POVERTY LINKS IN FIJI................................................................................... 25 3.1 Partial analysis............................................................................................................................................. 25 3.2 Empirical analysis......................................................................................................................................... 41 3.3 Coverage and quality of disaster and poverty data........................................................................................... 48 4. POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR FIJI............................................................................................. 49 4.1 Poverty reduction and disaster risk reduction................................................................................................. 49 4.2 Disaster management.................................................................................................................................... 52 4.3 Disaster risk management............................................................................................................................. 54 4.4 Data............................................................................................................................................................. 55 5. IMPLICATIONS FOR OTHER PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES........................................................ 56 5.1 Geographic characteristics........................................................................................................................... 56 5.2 Status of Pacific island countries’ economies................................................................................................. 59 5.3 Recent trends in increasing vulnerability........................................................................................................ 62 5.4 Disaster risk reduction and disaster management challenges.......................................................................... 64 6. CONCLUDING REMARKS.......................................................................................................... 66 REFERENCES............................................................................................................................... 67 ANNEX 1: GLOSSARY.................................................................................................................. 71 ANNEX 2: POVERTY ALLEVIATION AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECTS IN FIJI........... 73 SOPAC Miscellaneous Report 678 Report SOPAC Miscellaneous 4 TABLES TABLE 1: TYPES OF HAZARD..................................................................................................................... 16 TABLE 2: TYPES OF ANALYSIS USED......................................................................................................... 22 TABLE 3: TYPES AND SOURCES OF DATA USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DISASTER AND POVERTY IN FIJI, AND DATA CONSTRAINTS....................................... 23 TABLE 4: DIRECT IMPACTS OF MAJOR DISASTERS, FIJI, 1970–2007........................................................ 28 TABLE 5: NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT OFFICE’S ASSESSMENT OF SECTORAL IMPACTS OF CYCLONE AMI AND RELATED FLOODING (F$)........................................................................ 32 TABLE 6: ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM THE 2004 NAVUA FLOODS, FIJI (F$).............................. 32 TABLE 7: FIJI’S ECONOMY........................................................................................................................ 34 TABLE 8: INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE TO FIJI FOR CYCLONE AMI........................................................... 35 TABLE 9: GINI COEFFICIENTS FOR FIJI (PER PERSON INCOME), 1977 TO 2002-03.................................... 37 TABLE 10: SECTORS OF EMPLOYMENT OF THE HEADS OF POOR HOUSEHOLDS, FIJI, 1990-91................... 39 TABLE 11: BASIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS FOR FIJI................................................................. 39 TABLE 12: KEY FIJI’S MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL TARGETS............................................................ 40 TABLE 13: GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, FIJI (F$ MILLION)........................................................................ 40 TABLE 14: KEY VARIABLES USED IN THE OLS REGRESSION ANALYSIS, AND THE RATIONALE FOR THEIR USE.......................................................................................................................... 43 TABLE 15: RESULTS OF THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS, SUMMARISING EACH COEFFICIENT VALUE................ 44 TABLE 16: KEY THEMES OF THE PACIFIC DRR &DRM FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION 2005 - 2015.................... 55 TABLE 17: REPORTED DISASTERS IN THE PACIFIC ISLANDS, 1950–2004.................................................... 58 TABLE 18: KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES........................................................... 59 TABLE 19: MAIN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES OF SELECTED PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES.................................. 60 TABLE 20: IMPORTANCE OF SUBSISTENCE PRODUCTION TO HOUSEHOLD WELLBEING.............................. 61 TABLE 21: PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES’ PERFORMANCE IN REGARDS TO KEY MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS............................................................................................................... 62 TABLE 22: HDI VALUES FOR THE PACIFIC, 2007......................................................................................... 63 TABLE 23: HPI FOR PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES........................................................................................ 63 FIGURES FIGURE 1: FACTORS DETERMINING VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL DISASTERS.......................................... 18 FIGURE 2: RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT DISASTER EVENTS IN FIJI, 1970-2007.......................... 27 FIGURE 3: DISASTER EVENTS IN FIJI, 1970–2007..................................................................................... 28 FIGURE 4: PERCENTAGE OF LIVES LOST PER DISASTER EVENT, FIJI, 1970–2007...................................... 29 FIGURE 5: REPORTED NUMBER OF LIVES LOST FROM DISASTER EVENT, FIJI, 1970–2007......................... 29 FIGURE 6: REPORTED NUMBER OF PEOPLE AFFECTED BY DISASTER EVENT, FIJI, 1970–2007................... 30 FIGURE 7: TOTAL ESTIMATED COSTS BY DISASTER EVENT TYPE, FIJI (US$)............................................. 31 FIGURE 8: REPORTED ESTIMATED ANNUAL (NOMINAL) COST OF DISASTERS, FIJI, 1997–2007................ 31 FIGURE 9: COMPOSITION OF FIJI’S GDP, 2006...........................................................................................33 FIGURE 10: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GDP AND AGRICULTURAL