Modelling Progression of Competitive Sport Performance Rita Maria Malcata A thesis submitted to Auckland University of Technology in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2014 "All the mathematical sciences are founded on relations between physical laws and laws of numbers, so that the aim of exact science is to reduce the problems of nature to the determination of quantities by operations with numbers." James Clerk Maxwell, On Faraday's Lines of Force, 1856 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ 6 LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................... 8 ATTESTATION OF AUTHORSHIP ............................................................................................. 10 CO-AUTHORED PAPERS .......................................................................................................... 11 ACKNOWLEDGMENT ................................................................................................................ 12 CONFIDENTIAL MATERIAL ....................................................................................................... 13 ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................. 14 CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................................................. 15 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 15 1.1. Rationale .................................................................................................................... 15 1.2. Objectives................................................................................................................... 16 1.3. Literature Review ....................................................................................................... 16 1.4. Methodological Approach........................................................................................... 18 1.5. Thesis Structure ......................................................................................................... 19 1.6. Research Publications and Conference Presentations ............................................. 22 CHAPTER 2 ................................................................................................................................. 23 VARIABILITY OF COMPETITIVE ELITE PERFORMANCE ...................................................... 23 Overview ............................................................................................................................ 23 2.1. Introduction................................................................................................................. 24 2.2. Methods...................................................................................................................... 25 Data Search and Study Selection ............................................................................ 25 Data Extraction ........................................................................................................ 26 2.3. Results ....................................................................................................................... 28 2.4. Discussion .................................................................................................................. 34 2.5. Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 38 CHAPTER 3 ................................................................................................................................. 39 TRACKING CAREER TRAJECTORIES OF SUCCESSFUL TRIATHLETES ........................... 39 Overview ............................................................................................................................ 39 3.1. Introduction................................................................................................................. 39 3.2. Methods...................................................................................................................... 41 2 Data ......................................................................................................................... 41 Career trajectories ................................................................................................... 41 Conversion of Sprint to Olympic times .................................................................... 42 Age of peak performance and age-related performance change ............................ 42 Performance benchmark ......................................................................................... 42 Prediction of race outcomes .................................................................................... 43 3.3. Results ....................................................................................................................... 44 3.4. Discussion .................................................................................................................. 49 3.5. Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 52 CHAPTER 4 ................................................................................................................................. 54 PERFORMANCE PROGRESSION IN ELITE OLYMPIC-DISTANCE TRIATHLON .................. 54 Overview ............................................................................................................................ 54 4.1. Introduction................................................................................................................. 55 4.2. Methods...................................................................................................................... 55 Data ......................................................................................................................... 55 Year Trends ............................................................................................................. 56 Gender Differences ................................................................................................. 57 Contribution of each race stage ............................................................................... 57 4.3. Results ....................................................................................................................... 57 4.4. Discussion .................................................................................................................. 62 4.5. Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 64 CHAPTER 5 ................................................................................................................................. 65 MODELLING PROGRESSION OF COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE OF AN ACADEMY’S SOCCER TEAMS ........................................................................................................................ 65 Overview ............................................................................................................................ 65 5.1. Introduction................................................................................................................. 66 5.2. Methods...................................................................................................................... 66 Data ......................................................................................................................... 66 Year and season trends .......................................................................................... 67 5.3. Results ....................................................................................................................... 68 5.4. Discussion .................................................................................................................. 69 5.5. Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 71 CHAPTER 6 ................................................................................................................................. 72 USING ATHLETES WORLD RANKINGS TO ASSESS PERFORMANCE OF COUNTRIES ... 72 3 Overview ............................................................................................................................ 72 6.1. Introduction................................................................................................................. 73 6.2. Methods...................................................................................................................... 73 Data ......................................................................................................................... 73 Weighting approaches ............................................................................................. 73 Validity ..................................................................................................................... 74 Reliability ................................................................................................................. 74 Application to 2012 London Olympic Games