STOCKPORT RETAIL STUDY UPDATE On behalf of Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council August 2014 FINAL REPORT Volume 1 – Main Text Stockport Retail Study Update CONTENTS 1 INSTRUCTIONS, CONTEXTUAL BACKGROUND AND OUTLINE OF REPORT 1 Instructions ................................................................................................................................. 1 New Survey Evidence ................................................................................................................ 3 Updated Data Inputs ................................................................................................................... 3 Price Base .................................................................................................................................. 4 The Earlier Stockport Shopping and Leisure Study ................................................................... 4 Outline of Report ......................................................................................................................... 5 2 NATIONAL POLICY CONTEXT 7 The National Planning Policy Framework (the NPPF) ............................................................... 7 The National Planning Practice Guidance (the NPPG) .............................................................. 8 3 RECENT AND FUTURE CHANGES IN RETAILING 11 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 11 Retail Expenditure Growth per Capita...................................................................................... 12 E­Commerce and Multi­Channel Retailing ............................................................................... 13 Consequences for Retailing Arising from the Recession and E­Commerce ........................... 15 Shopping Development ............................................................................................................ 19 Influential Retail Reports .......................................................................................................... 20 The Government’s Response ................................................................................................... 25 Implications of Recent Trends for the Hierarchy of Centres in Stockport ................................ 28 4 THE HEALTH OF STOCKPORT TOWN CENTRE 31 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 31 Diversity of Uses....................................................................................................................... 32 The Proportion of Vacant, Street­Level Property ..................................................................... 38 Commercial Yields on Non­domestic Property ........................................................................ 42 Customers’ Views and Behaviour ............................................................................................ 42 Retailer Representation and Intentions to Change Representation ........................................ 42 Commercial Rents .................................................................................................................... 43 Pedestrian Flows ...................................................................................................................... 44 Accessibility .............................................................................................................................. 45 Perception of Safety and Occurrence of Crime ........................................................................ 46 State of the Town Centre Environmental Quality ..................................................................... 47 Town Centre Rankings ............................................................................................................. 48 Overall Conclusion on the NPPG Health Indicators ................................................................. 49 The Greater Manchester Town Centres Project: Concluding Report ...................................... 50 Overall Conclusion in Relation to the Health of Stockport Town Centre ................................. 53 5 THE HEALTH OF THE DISTRICT CENTRES 55 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 55 Retail Turnover Estimates for the District Centres ................................................................... 56 Overview of Number of Retail and Service Units in 2013 ........................................................ 57 Diversity of Uses....................................................................................................................... 58 Retailer Representation ............................................................................................................ 60 Proportion of Vacant Street­Level Property ............................................................................. 63 The Findings of the Surveys of Pedestrians............................................................................. 66 Conclusions in Relation to the Health of the District Centres .................................................. 90 HV075 | August 2014 FINAL REPORT Stockport Retail Study Update 6 EXISTING SHOPPING PATTERNS 96 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 96 Population and Expenditure ..................................................................................................... 97 Comparison Goods Spending Patterns .................................................................................... 97 Stockport Town Centre’s Comparison Goods Zonal Market Shares ..................................... 101 Convenience Goods Spending Patterns ................................................................................ 101 Mapping of Index of Multiple Deprivation ............................................................................... 109 Conclusions in Relation to Retail Spending Patterns ............................................................. 111 7 QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE NEED 114 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 114 Findings of the Stockport Shopping and Leisure Study of September 2009 ......................... 114 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 116 Findings in Relation to Quantitative Need .............................................................................. 119 Conclusions in Relation to Quantitative Need ........................................................................ 121 Qualitative Retail Needs ......................................................................................................... 122 Conclusions in Relation to Qualitative Need .......................................................................... 124 8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 126 National Policy Context .......................................................................................................... 126 Recent and Future Changes in Retailing ............................................................................... 127 The Health of Stockport Town Centre .................................................................................... 130 The Health of the District Centres .......................................................................................... 131 Existing Shopping Patterns .................................................................................................... 134 Quantitative Need ................................................................................................................... 136 Qualitative Need ..................................................................................................................... 137 Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 138 HV075 | August 2014 FINAL REPORT Stockport Retail Study Update HV075 | August 2014 FINAL REPORT Stockport Retail Study Update 1 INSTRUCTIONS, CONTEXTUAL BACKGROUND AND OUTLINE OF REPORT Instructions 1.1 In January 2014, Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council instructed hollissvincent to undertake this Stockport Retail Study Update (the SRS Update). The main purpose of the study is to enhance the evidence base for the Council’s Local Development Framework, and, in particular, to inform the next stage of the Allocations Development Plan Document. Our instructions follow the publication of the Stockport Shopping and Leisure Study, prepared for the Council by Drivers Jonas in September 2009. We have been instructed, specifically, to undertake: • an updated assessment of the quantitative and qualitative need for further retail development across the overall Stockport catchment area shown in Figure 1.1, in the period up to 2034, both in the comparison goods (non-food) and in the convenience goods (food) retail sectors; • an updated assessment of national trends in retailing and the implications for the hierarchy of town and district centres in Stockport; • a desk-top assessment of the current health of Stockport Town Centre, drawing, in the main, on research already