The Bullpen is the New Starting Rotation A Look Into Modern Baseball Pitching Trends and the Tampa Bay Rays By Christian Wisniewski Common Man: Starting Pitching is still great, look! Expert: Congrats! You managed to pick the five best pitching staffs in the MLB, now what about everyone else? Common Man: …………………... Statistically, Starting Pitching is becoming weaker. (Not to this extreme) → Other reasons why: - MLB DL stints have gone up - Total number rose from 659 to 699 from 2017 to 2018. (Roster Resource) - Analytics have become more prevalent - Teams understand what happens to a pitchers numbers the more batters he faces. - The players today are better athletes then there were in the past - Fangraphs began tracking average fastball velocity in 2007 when there were 18 pitchers that pitched a 100+ innings who averaged 94+ MPH on their fastball, there were 32 Pitchers in 2018, almost double. - Bullpens are flexible compared to starting rotations - A manger can tailor his bullpen to be good against righties, be balanced, and can even have a pitcher whose main goal is to get out left-handed batters The 2018 Tampa Bay Rays and the “Opener” Origins - March 7th 2018: Manager Kevin Cash Announces the Four Man Rotation - “"We're going to try to stay at four…………..We're going to have some bullpen days in there. We're going to try and do that for a long period of time. We're going to learn a lot in the first six weeks.” - Kevin Cash (Bill Chastain) - "Not to blow it out of proportion, it's going to be a rotation to where you're going to have the consistency with the starters. But when we can plug in extra days with the bullpen to see where the off-day is in the schedule, and get those guys an extra day." - Kevin Cash (Bill Chastain) - "If one of us needs to take a day, or [an injury], we'll still be covered," - Chris Archer (Bill Chastain) The Basis - The “Opener” Method is meant to protect pitchers. - It can be used to protect pitcher health. - When there off days in the schedule, instead of using a starter, the Rays could do a bullpen game to give their starters more rest. The bullpen also gets to rest the day after, because they do not have a game. That way they are fresh for the next game. - The Rays could bring minor league pitchers up and down to use in the games. - Many of the key pitchers used like Ryan Yarborough were eligible to be optioned to the minors. This prevented overworking in the majors, and a steady stream of new arms for each “opener attempt”. - Can reduce Injured List (previously disabled list) trips. - With minor injuries, “openers” could be used in place so that the player did not have to be out the minimum ten days if it was not a ten day injury. The Criteria Used - The Rays were interesting in terms of pitching use because of their “staff”. - Pitchers who were typically starters who went 5+ IP may go 3 IP with 80 pitches. - With this in mind I restricted “Opener” games to: - Games where people who were “Starting Pitchers” who often pitched 5+ did not count. - The first pitcher had to pitch less than 4 IP. - If a pitcher pitched more than four could have easily been a normal starter who threw too many pitches. - This resulted in 78 games of which could be defined as an “opener game”. - These games commonly resulted in the first pitcher pitching 2 or less innings, with at leat one of the following pitchers pitching 3+ innings - The same pitchers were commonly the openers every single time - Ryan Yarborough, Sergio Romo, Ryne Stanek, Andrew Kittredge, Hunter Wood, Diego Castillo, and Yanni Chirinos. "Only if it works………….If it doesn't, it's dumb." - Ray’s Manager Kevin Cash on if the “Opener” plan was innovative. In 68 Opener Games……….. In 25 Games vs Playoff Teams Using the “Opener” The “Opener Resulted in…... - 42% of the Rays Starts - A Win Loss Record of 38-30 - A 15-15 record vs 2018 playoff teams - A 7-12 record in 1 run games. - A 33-18 record when allowing 5 or less runs Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images - A Run Differential of +31 - 32 games with nine or more strikeouts - A 4.27 ERA, good for 20th in the MLB - A Strikeouts per nine of 8.45, good for 17th in the MLB - A 6-4 record vs NYY, 7-1 Record vs TOR, 4-4 vs BOS, and 6-4 VS BAL - Resulting in a 23-13 record in division using the opener The Rays did all of this with the 3rd lowest payroll and spent the least on their bullpen in the MLB……. The Importance of the Bullpen in Modern Baseball - It is more specialized - Bullpens are more than just closers. There are pitchers who can pitch multiple innings, high leverage situations, are great at inducing ground balls, or specialize versus left-handed batters (see Aaron Loup). - In playoff baseball, the bullpen commonly decides games. - Five out of the ten best bullpens as measured by WAR made the playoffs (Yankees 1st, Astros 3rd, Brewers 4th, A’s 5th, Red Sox 6th). - The best teams spend on the bullpen, because of its versatility. - Of the 10 teams who spent above league average ($16.3 Million) on their bullpen, seven made the playoffs, five won a round, and two made the World Series. Is this the optimized version of pitching? - It’s hard to say. In a near half season sample size, the Rays performed as an above average MLB team. If they didn’t play in the AL East, they could have possibly made the playoffs, as they went 90-72. It could be said if they had the money that the Yankees or Dodgers have that they could have been even better. That is just in theory. A larger sample size would be needed to prove the validity of the method to possibly be adapted through all of the MLB. By that point though, MLB may have changed rules to effectively eliminate the opener strategy. Only time will tell. Sources - “2018 Tampa Bay Rays Pitching Game Logs.” BR Bullpen, www.baseball- reference.com/teams/tgl.cgi?team=TBR&t=p&year=2018. - Chastain, Bill. “Rays Will Use Four-Man Rotation in 2018 Season.” MLB.com, MLB, 7 Mar. 2018, www.mlb.com/news/rays-will-use-four-man-rotation-in-2018-season/c-268062476. - “Current 2018 MLB Payroll List: Brewers Only Winning Franchise Under $100M.” Slackie Brown, 18 Jan. 2019, slackiebrown.com/current-2018-mlb-payroll-list-brewers-only-winning- franchise-under-100m/. - ESPN, ESPN Internet Ventures, www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/sort/strikeoutsPerNineInnings/type/expanded- 2/order/true. - ESPN, ESPN Internet Ventures, www.espn.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/year/2018/seasontype/2. - “MLB Relief Pitcher Spending - Cap.” Spotrac.com, www.spotrac.com/mlb/positional/relief-pitcher/..