Electrification of the Sunshine Coast Transit System: A Feasibility Study ENVR 400 Final Report Carol Fu Jason Lin Michelle Marcus Tom Cui In collaboration with the 2 Degrees Institute ​ University of British Columbia ENVR 400: Community Project in Environmental Science Research Advisor: Tara Ivanochko April 9, 2020 Table of Contents Abstract 5 Author Biographies 6 Introduction 7 The Climate Emergency 7 The Sunshine Coast Transit System 7 Figure 1. 8 Figure 2. 9 Table 1. 9 Project Aims 10 Electric Bus Operations 10 Overview of Trade-offs Between Technologies 10 Table 2. 11 Figure 3. 12 Figure 4. 12 1) Infrastructure requirements 12 Summary: Electric Bus Operations 14 Optimization of Bus Charging Schedules 14 Methodology 14 Figure 5. 15 Figure 6. 16 Results and Discussion 17 Table 3. 17 Figure 7. 18 Figure 8. 19 Summary: Optimization of Bus Charging Schedules 19 Life Cycle Cost Analysis 19 Methodology 19 Table 4. 20 Figure 9. 20 Table 5. 21 Table 6. 23 ​ Figure 10. 24 2 Table 7. 24 Figure 11. 25 Discussion 25 Summary: Life Cycle Cost Analysis 26 Ridership Strategies 26 Figure 12. 27 Literature Review: Ridership Improvement Strategies 27 Table 8. 30 Figure 13. 30 Figure 14. 30 Results and Discussion 31 Table 9. 31 Summary: Ridership Strategies 33 Conclusion, Limitations and Further Studies 33 Conclusion 33 Limitations 34 Further Studies 34 Acknowledgements 35 References 36 Appendix I: Optimization of Charging Schedules 42 Mathematical Reasoning Behind Charging Schedule Algorithm 42 Algorithm Code in R 42 Appendix II: Ridership Strategies 47 Table 10. 47 Table 11. 48 3 Abstract Electrifying transportation is a necessary part of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to mitigate global climate change. Electric buses are gaining popularity worldwide, in urban and rural communities alike. This research, conducted in partnership with the 2 Degrees Institute, aims to explore pathways towards electrifying the transit system on the Sunshine Coast in British Columbia with the goal of implementing a fully electric fleet earlier than the current deadline of 2040. The project will employ life-cycle cost analysis to determine the most financially feasible charging method and use a numerical algorithm to optimize bus schedules in order to accommodate charging time and minimize demand charges. The report also provides recommendations for potential strategies to increase transit ridership on the Sunshine Coast based on a literature review. The results suggest that: (1) the demand charge for a fully electric fleet will be 625 kW; (2) the charging schedule can be optimized by charging 2 groups of electric buses at 2 different time periods; (3) fast charging has the lowest life-cycle cost due to smaller batteries and reduced number of chargers required; (4) strategies to increase ridership include service expansion, park-and-ride facilities, fare reduction of student and senior monthly passes and the revision of the DayPASS-on-Board program. The report findings may be used by the Sunshine Coast as well as other jurisdictions - especially rural regions - as a model for electric transit implementation. 4 Author Biographies Tom Cui A fourth-year Environmental Sciences student major with an area of concentration in land, air, and water at UBC. He is familiar with academic writing and data analysis, and he has experience with programming. Carol Fu Carol Fu is a fifth-year UBC Science student majoring in Environmental Sciences with a focus on land, air, and water as areas of concentration. Carol has experience with research, data collection and analysis from previous co-op work opportunities at Environment Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Jason Lin A fourth-year Environmental Sciences student with experience in field-work, data collection and analysis from previous work experience at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Environment Canada. Michelle Marcus Michelle is a fifth-year Environmental Sciences student enrolled in the land, air, and water concentration. She is a passionate advocate for climate justice having been actively involved in the successful UBC fossil fuel divestment campaign and organizing climate strikes. She enjoys data analysis and modelling. 5 Introduction The Climate Emergency The transportation sector is the second biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in Canada, as it is predominantly powered by petroleum-based fuels, primarily gasoline and diesel (National Inventory Report, 2017). The transportation sector accounts for 37% of British ​ Columbia’s total emissions (Province of British Columbia, n.d.). According to the Special Report ​ on Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC, 2018) global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide ​ ​ ​ must be reduced by approximately 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 to limit warming to a “safe” ​ level of 1.5°C, thus necessitating a rapid transition in energy systems in order to prevent catastrophic climate change impacts. In November 2018, BC Transit, the regional transit authority of BC outside Greater Vancouver, adopted a Low Carbon Fleet Program to support provincial 2030 emissions reductions target for ​ ​ greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and to align with the provincial CleanBC plan. BC Transit ​ ​ pledged to start buying only electric heavy duty vehicles in 2023, with a goal of creating a fully electric provincial fleet in all vehicle classifications by 2040 (BC Transit, 2019a). Commensurate ​ with purchasing electric heavy duty vehicles, BC Transit will also convert some of its fleet to lower carbon technologies, such as compressed natural gas (BC Transit, 2019a). Given the ​ estimated timeline of 10 years to drastically cut global emissions (IPCC, 2018), the 2 Degrees ​ ​ Institute (2DI) is interested in investigating the feasibility of phasing out diesel buses in favor of zero-emission electric buses sooner than BC Transit’s proposed timeline. This would require developing a plan for BC Transit and the Sunshine Coast Regional District (SCRD) to electrify the Sunshine Coast transit system using the most operationally and financially feasible charging method. The Sunshine Coast Transit System The Sunshine Coast, located on the southern coast of British Columbia (Figure 1), currently operates fourteen diesel buses over five routes, running from Halfmoon Bay to Langdale (Figure 2 & Table 1). Communities north of Halfmoon Bay currently have no access to transit. To evaluate a successful transit system for this region, we must consider context-specific factors such as population growth, climate, topography, and seasonal population fluctuations. These factors will assist in projecting operational feasibility of transportation options, as well as ridership revenue. 6 Figure 1. Sunshine Coast, British Columbia (Google, n.d.) The Sunshine Coast is a rural regional district with its main transportation corridor stretching across low-density communities. It has a small population of 29,970 people (Statistics Canada, 2017) with an anticipated increase of approximately 12,500 people over 25 years starting in 2014 (BC Transit & SCRD, 2014). With the limited need for road salting, there are minimal impacts to transit service from poor weather conditions and lower maintenance costs (BC Transit & SCRD, 2014). As in other coastal communities, the Sunshine Coast features steep topography, which can increase energy consumption and decrease bus lifetime. Seasonal service changes occur each year to synchronize with the BC Ferries schedule and respond to increased service demand in peak season as popular pursuits include hiking, camping, paddling and other outdoor activities, among tourists (BC Transit, 2019b). The Sunshine Coast Integrated Transportation Study (ISL ​ ​ Engineering and Land Services, 2011) identifies that 30% of transit rides are linked to the ferry schedule and that regular ferry delays impact transit schedules and reliability. Altogether the infrequent bus service, limited route access and dispersed low density communities have led to a strong dependence on private vehicles in the region. 7 Figure 2. Current Sunshine Coast bus route map (BC Transit, n.d.). Table 1. Sunshine Coast Regional Transit System’s active bus roster. The fleet consists of 8 full-size diesel buses, fleet numbers 4028-4033, and 6 mid-size diesel buses, fleet numbers 9224-9231 (CPTDB, 2019). This feasibility study aims to support the reduction of regional emissions with the hope that it can also act as a roadmap for other rural communities in BC and around the world to transition to electric public transit. By taking advantage of new technology solutions and transitioning to an electric transit system, each electric bus will reduce carbon emissions by more than 135 tons per year (Sierra Club, 2019). Each year, the Sunshine Coast spends over $100 million dollars on imported fuel (SCRD, 2009). With an electric transit system, a portion of these funds can be redirected to developing local and regional energy systems which support the local economy (SCRD, 2009). 8 Project Aims The goal of this project is to determine the feasibility of electrifying public transit on the Sunshine Coast and investigate the feasibility of phasing out diesel buses in favor of zero-emission electric buses sooner than BC Transit’s proposed timeline. The project also aims to provide recommendations for ridership improvement strategies on the Sunshine Coast in order to increase ridership revenue and improve the feasibility of electric buses compared to diesel buses. Our objectives are to: 1. Explore and summarize trade-offs