NATIONAL CONGRESS OF AMERICAN INDIANS POLICY RESEARCH CENTER October 6, 2020 Research Policy Update Native Vote Regional Report: Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions The National Congress of American Indians (NCAI) Native Vote initiative is a non-partisan effort to promote American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) voter engagement throughout Indian Country. The purpose of this report is to share bi-weekly updates on the status of competitive elections during the 2020 election cycle in NCAI regions where turnout of the Native Vote many make a difference. NCAI Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions – Voting Age Population For the 2020 election cycle, a number of close races have the potential to be impacted by the number of voting age AI/ANs who may vote, especially if they are a significant percentage of the total population in the state. The NCAI Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions include the states of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Forty-five federally recognized tribal nations and two state-recognized tribal nations have land within the region. For the states in the Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions, the AI/AN voting age population number and percentage of the overall population for the states is shown in Table 1. Table 1: AI/AN Voting Age Statewide Population Percentage for States in the Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions State 2019 State Total 2019 AI/AN State AI/AN Voting Age Voting Age Total Voting Age Population Population Population Percentage Estimates Estimates Kansas 2,213,064 49,333 2.23% Oklahoma 3,004,733 374,436 12.46% Texas 21,596,071 356,739 1.65% Source: 2019 Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates, Tables SCPRC-EST2019-18+POP-RES and SC-EST2019-ALLDATA5. The AI/AN voting age population has the potential to impact competitive national, Congressional district, and state legislative races where the margin of victory is estimated to 1 be similar to or lower than the AI/AN voting age population percentage in the state. Since data on competitive and potentially competitive elections may change over time, this report reflects the latest information from the Cook Political Report, which is a non-partisan newsletter that regularly analyzes elections at the national and state level. This report also uses current polling on competitive races as collected by FiveThirtyEight, which is a news media source and national polling clearinghouse. Finally, this report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau on the number and percentage of AI/AN voters in election districts. For national and statewide elections (Electoral College, Senate, and Gubernatorial races), the data on AI/AN voting age population is drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 population estimates. For all other elections, AI/AN voting age population data for U.S. Congressional districts and state upper and lower legislative house levels is drawn from the Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) Census Bureau dataset from 2018.These reports are compiled using the NCAI regions, which may differ from other organizational or federal department regional designations for tribal nations. NCAI Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions – National Elections In the Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions, the latest Cook Political Report ranks two national races to be competitive: the Senate race in Kansas between Barbara Bollier and Roger Marshall; and the Electoral College (Presidential) race in Texas. In addition, the Cook Political Report ranks two races potentially competitive: the Texas Senate race between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger M.J. Hegar; and the Kansas Electoral College race. Figure 1 illustrates the AI/AN voting age population percentages and recent polling spread or percent margins for the Kansas Senate and Electoral College races. The Kansas Senate race ranks as possibly to result in a Republican outcome, or “Lean-R,” and the Electoral College race ranks as likely to result in a Republican win, or “Likely-R.” AI/AN voters can have an impact on the outcome of the Kansas Senate race. Figure 1: Kansas Senate and Electoral College Election Polling Spread and AI/AN Voting Age Population Percentage 14 12 12 10 8 6 4 2.23 2 Percentage 2 0 AI/AN Voting Age Senate (Bollier v. Electoral College Population Percentage Marshall) Source: 2019 Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates, Tables SCPRC-EST2019-18+POP-RES and SC-EST2019-ALLDATA5; FiveThirtyEight, Accessed September 15, 2020. 2 Figure 2 illustrates the AI/AN voting age population percentages and the recent polling spread or percent margins for the Texas Senate and Electoral College races. The Texas Senate race ranks as likely to result in a Republican win, or “Likely-R,” and the Electoral College race ranks as possibly to result in a Republican win, or “Lean-R.” AI/AN voters can impact the Electoral College race if the race continues to tighten and depending on voter turnout. Figure 2: Texas Senate and Electoral College Elections Polling Spread and AI/AN Voting Age Population Percentage 12 10 10 8 6 Percentage 4 3 1.65 2 0 AI/AN Voting Age Senate (Cornyn v. Hegar) Electoral College Population Percentage Source: 2019 Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates, Tables SCPRC-EST2019-18+POP-RES and SC-EST2019-ALLDATA5; FiveThirtyEight, Accessed September 15, 2020. NCAI Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions – U.S. Congressional Elections In the Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions, there are numerous competitive or potentially Congressional (U.S. House of Representatives) competitive races according to the latest Cook Political Report. Two competitive races are in Kansas, one is in Oklahoma, and 12 races are in Texas. In addition, four Native candidates are running for Congressional House seats in the Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions according to Indian Country Today. Three of these races include incumbents: Sharice Davids of Kansas Congressional district 3; and Tom Cole of Oklahoma district 4; and Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma district 2. In addition, Native candidate Danyell Lanier is also running in Oklahoma’s second Congressional district. Figure 3 illustrates the AI/AN voting age population percentage in the U.S. Congressional district races in Kansas and Oklahoma, and the polling spread or percent margins for the races. For Kansas and Oklahoma, current polling is not available for Oklahoma districts 2 and 4. However, the previous margins of victory for the incumbent Native candidates, Markwayne Mullin and Tom Cole, are used for comparison. In the second districts in Kansas and Oklahoma, 3 the AI/AN voting age population percentage is greater or near to the difference between candidate polling or past margin of victory. AI/AN voters could impact the outcome of these races depending on voter turnout. Figure 3: Kansas and Oklahoma Congressional Elections Polling Spread/Past Margins of Victory and AI/AN Voting Age Population Percentages 40 34.9 29.77 30.1 30 27 20 11.97 8 8.72 Percentage 10 4 3.81 1.34 0 KS-02 KS-03 OK-02 OK-04 OK-05 Polling Spread/Potential Margin of Victory AI/AN Voting Age Population Percentage Source: Census Bureau, 2018 Resident Voting Age Population by Race and Ethnicity (CVAP), Table CVAP 2014-2018 t Year ACS Data; FiveThirtyEight, Accessed on September 15, 2020; Ballotpedia, Accessed September 15, 2020; Election Projection, Accessed September 15, 2020. Figure 4 illustrates the AI/AN voting age population percentages for Texas’ competitive and potentially competitive U.S. Congressional district races. The AI/AN voting age population percentage is lower than the current polling differences between candidates. Current polling is not available for Texas’ second (TX-02) and thirty-second districts (TX-32). For TX-02, the margin of victory from the 2018 election cycle is presented, while for TX-32, the projected margin of victory is used. In four of the elections, the AI/AN voting age population percentage is greater than the polling difference between candidates – in particular, among Texas districts seven and 22 where the polling difference between candidates is zero. AI/AN voters could impact the outcomes of these races depending on voter turnout. 4 Figure 4: Texas Congressional Elections Polling Spread/Past or Projected Margins of Victory and AI/AN Voting Age Population Percentages 10 8 6 4 Percentage 2 0 TX-02 TX-03 TX-06 TX-07 TX-10 TX-21 TX-22 TX-23 TX-24 TX-25 TX-31 TX-32 Polling Spread/Projected Margin of Victory AI/AN Voting Age Population Percentage Source: Census Bureau, 2018 Resident Voting Age Population by Race and Ethnicity (CVAP), Table CVAP 2014-2018 t Year ACS Data; FiveThirtyEight, Accessed September 15, 2020; Ballotpedia, Accessed September 15, 2020. NCAI Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions – State Legislative Elections The Cook Political Report ranks state legislative houses in Kansas and Texas as competitive or potentially competitive. Kansas’ upper and lower state legislative houses rank potentially competitive and likely to result in Republican wins, or “Likely-R.” Texas’ upper state legislative house also ranks as potentially competitive and likely to result in a Republican win, or “Likely- R.” The Texas’ lower state legislative house ranks competitive and possibly to result in a Republican win, or “Lean-R.” In addition, according to Indian Country Today, within the Southern Plains and Eastern Oklahoma Regions, there are 15 Native candidates running for state legislative office, three in Kansas and 12 in Oklahoma. Table 2 and Table 3 illustrate the Native candidates running for state legislative office, their district race, and the AI/AN voting age population percentage in those state legislative districts. Table 2: Kansas State Legislative Native Candidates and AI/AN Voting Age Population Percentage Candidate District Race AI/AN Voting Age Population Percentage Stephanie Byers State House District 86 2.76% Christina Haswood State House District 10 6.11% Ponka-We Victors State House District 103 1.28% Source: Census Bureau, 2018 Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) by Race and Ethnicity, Table CVAP 2014-2018 t Year ACS Data; Indian Country Today, Accessed September 18, 2020.