Mordialloc Bypass Environment Effects Statement Regional Economy Existing Conditions and Impact Report FINAL REPORT Prepared for Major Road Projects Authority by Essential Economics Pty Ltd September 2018 Authorship Report stage Author Date Review Date Draft V.1 Jack O’Connor 10 April 2018 John Noronha 10 April 2018 Draft V.2 Jack O’Connor 17 April 2018 John Noronha 18 April 2018 Draft V.3 Jack O’Connor 29 June 2018 John Noronha 29 June 2018 Draft V.4 Jack O’Connor 26 July 2018 John Noronha 27 July 2018 Draft V.5 Jack O’Connor 31 July 2018 John Noronha 31 July 2018 Draft V.6 Jack O’Connor 7 August 2018 John Noronha 7 August 2018 Draft V.7 Jack O’Connor 16 August 2018 John Noronha 16 August 2018 Final report Jack O’Connor 14 September 2018 John Noronha 14 September 2018 Disclaimer Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material and the integrity of the analysis presented in this report. However, Essential Economics Pty Ltd accepts no liability for any actions taken on the basis of report contents. Contact details For further details please contact Essential Economics Pty Ltd at one of our offices: 96 Pelham Street Level 26 / 44 Market Street Carlton Sydney Victoria 3053 New South Wales 2000 Australia Australia PH +61 3 9347 5255 PH +61 2 9089 8654 FAX +61 3 9347 5355 EMAIL [email protected] WEB www.essentialeconomics.com ABN 92 079 850 427 Our Reference: 17090 Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 2 1.1 Project Description ............................................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Project Configuration ........................................................................................................................ 3 2 EES Scoping Requirements.......................................................................................... 6 3 Legislation and Policy ................................................................................................. 7 4 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 11 5 Existing Conditions ................................................................................................... 12 5.1 Locational Context and Study Area ................................................................................................. 12 5.2 Population Growth Trends and Outlook ......................................................................................... 15 5.3 Industry Structure and Employment Overview ............................................................................... 16 5.4 Overview of Enterprises Located in Study Area .............................................................................. 20 5.5 Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 33 6 Risk Assessment ....................................................................................................... 34 6.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 34 6.2 Key Findings .................................................................................................................................... 37 7 Impact Assessment and Mitigation ........................................................................... 40 7.1 Stakeholder Consultation ................................................................................................................ 40 7.2 Summary of Potential Benefits to the Regional Economy .............................................................. 56 7.3 Summary of Potential Impacts on Enterprises and Proposed Mitigation Measures ...................... 57 7.4 Cumulative Effects .......................................................................................................................... 61 8 Environmental Performance Requirements ............................................................... 62 9 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 63 9.1 Existing Conditions .......................................................................................................................... 63 9.2 Impact Assessment ......................................................................................................................... 63 Glossary ............................................................................................................................ 65 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 66 References ........................................................................................................................ 67 Appendix A – Thames Promenade Assessment ................................................................... 68 MORDIALLOC BYPASS – ENVIRONMENT EFFECTS STATEMENT REGIONAL ECONOMY – E XISTING CONDITIONS A ND IMPACT REPORT FINAL REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A regional economic assessment study was undertaken for the Mordialloc Bypass project (the project). The key conclusions arising from this study are outlined as follows: • Enterprises with potential to be impacted by the project are located on Green Wedge Zone 2 Land, Garden Boulevard Industrial Precinct and Woodlands Drive Industrial Precinct. • No significant impacts were identified for enterprises located at the Governors Road Industrial Node or Chelsea Heights Node. • Impairment of access was the most common potential impact identified. • Other potential impacts included loss of carparking (relating specifically to Tarnard Drive properties), and amenity concerns (relating to Autism Plus). • Potential mitigation measures identified by stakeholder enterprises include Major Road Projects Authority (MRPA) liaising closely with property owners, access management plans to minimise impacts, offset measures (relating to loss of carparking), staging and timing of works etc. • Economic (related) benefits identified by stakeholders included: - Elevated exposure to passing trade for businesses accommodated by land abutting the project. - Increased efficiencies and connectively in the transport network attributed to project when operational with flow-on benefits to enterprises including efficiencies in product distribution, and access to larger trade and employment catchments (for enterprises within the Dingley/Braeside region as well as firms located in Bayside and Mornington Peninsula suburbs located further south, and firms located in the Dandenong region. - Improved access to the Monash National Employment and Innovation Cluster and Dandenong National Employment & Innovation Cluster. - A more balanced transport network solution in south-east and bayside region of Melbourne due to the provision of a shared pedestrian and cycle path along the project route. • Potential exist for the project to generate cumulative impacts if the project is constructed concurrently with the following projects: - LXRA Edithvale – Bonbeach level crossing removal project - Moorabbin Airport Development - Hawthorn Football Club – development of future training base and headquarters However, these impacts are considered minor and manageable. Essential Economics Pty Ltd 1 MORDIALLOC BYPASS – ENVIRONMENT EFFECTS STATEMENT REGIONAL ECONOMY – E XISTING CONDITIONS A ND IMPACT REPORT FINAL REPORT INTRODUCTION 1.1 Project Description The Mordialloc Bypass project (the project) is the proposed construction of a new freeway connecting the Dingley Bypass with the Mornington Peninsula Freeway; and is predominately to be constructed within an existing road reservation. The project passes between the western boundary of Braeside Park and the eastern boundary of the Woodlands Estate (constructed) wetlands, traverses constructed wetlands at Waterways and approaches to within one kilometre of the Ramsar-listed Edithvale-Seaford Wetlands. The northern and southern ends of the project pass through or border the South East Green Wedge. The project corridor is approximately 9.7 kilometres in length, comprising two, two-lane 7.5 kilometre long carriageways (with a path for walking and cycling) along the greenfield alignment, and 2.2 kilometres of roadworks required to integrate the project with the Mornington Peninsula Freeway. It is expected that each carriageway will provide for two 3.5 metre wide lanes, with a 3.0 metre wide outside shoulder and 1.0 metre wide inside shoulder. The project will also provide connections from the freeway onto the Dingley Bypass, Centre Dandenong Road, Lower Dandenong Road, Governor Road, Springvale Road and new north facing ramps at Thames Promenade. There will also be an overpass at Old Dandenong Road. Mordialloc Creek and the associated Waterways Wetlands will be spanned by twin 400 metre long bridges. The proposed alignment allows for a future upgrade of the project to a six-lane freeway standard road within the construction footprint. The proposed alignment is generally located within the existing road reservation, most of which is already covered by Public Acquisition Overlay, and some of which is already in VicRoads’