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ISSN 0081-4539 2016 THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2016 CONTENTS FOREWORD v Mitigation and adaptation co-benefits ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS viii that enhance food security 76 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS x Mitigation costs, incentives and barriers 84 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xi A food system perspective: minimizing losses and waste, promoting sustainable diets 86 CHAPTER 1 Conclusions 87 HUNGER, POVERTY AND CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CHALLENGES TODAY AND TOMORROW 1 CHAPTER 5 THE WAY FORWARD: REALIGNING POLICIES, Key messages 3 BUILDING INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY 89 Complex interactions and inextricable links 4 Key messages 91 The urgency of concerted global action now 10 Agriculture now central to “intended contributions” 92 The special role and responsibility of agriculture 13 From intentions to action: agriculture Structure of this report 15 in climate strategies 95 CHAPTER 2 Integrated approaches that align climate CLIMATE, AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY: and development goals 96 A CLOSER LOOK AT THE CONNECTIONS 17 Strengthening regional and international cooperation 100 Key messages 19 Conclusions 103 Cascading impacts from climate to people 20 Impacts on agriculture 22 CHAPTER 6 Impacts on incomes and livelihoods 29 FINANCING THE WAY FORWARD 105 Millions more at risk of hunger 34 Key messages 107 The agriculture sectors’ role in climate change 38 Climate finance for agriculture 108 Conclusions 41 Making a little go far: using climate finance strategically 115 CHAPTER 3 ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN Conclusions 119 Annex: Data on international public climate SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE 43 finance for agriculture, forestry and fisheries 120 Key messages 45 Rethinking pathways out of poverty 46 STATISTICAL ANNEX 123 Key vulnerabilities to climate change risks 47 Notes on the annex tables 124 Towards resilient production systems and livelihoods 48 Table A.1– Projected changes in crop yields due How much will adaptation cost? 60 to climate change for all locations worldwide 127 Managing the transition Table A.2 – Net emissions and removals to climate-smart smallholder systems 62 from agriculture, forests and other land use in Conclusions 66 carbon dioxide equivalent, 2014 134 CHAPTER 4 Table A.3 – Agricultural emissions in carbon FOOD AND AGRICULTURE SYSTEMS dioxide equivalent by source, 2014 141 IN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION 69 Key messages 71 REFERENCES 148 The technical potential for mitigation SPECIAL CHAPTERS OF THE STATE with adaptation 72 OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 172 | ii | NOTES BORIA VOLOREIUM, SIT AUT QUIS DOLORITI CONECTUS, SEQUE The proportion of undernourished people in the total population is the indicator known as prevalence of undernourishment (PoU). See Annexes 2 TABLES,and 3 of this reportFIGURES for further details. Ecullentem facerrum quam,& quatet occusBOXES acepro modit quibus autat laut omnihitias sitat. TABLES 9. Differences in nitrogen use in 6. Projected changes in crop smallholder farming in East Asia yields in developed regions 1. Climate impacts on selected and sub-Saharan Africa 53 owing to climate change 27 crop yields, globally and in tropical areas, under warming of 1.5 °C 10. Opportunity costs of 7. Impacts of climate change and 2 °C above pre-industrial implementing improved grazing on crop yields, area, management, Qinghai production, prices and trade levels over the 21st century 12 Province, China 65 in 2050 at the global level 36 2. Selected potential impacts 11. Potential for N O mitigation 8. Impacts of climate change of climate change, by region 24 2 of annual emissions under five on population at risk of hunger 3. Number of people living scenarios of improved practices, in 2050, by region 36 in extreme poverty in 2030 2030 and 2050 9. Population at risk of with and without climate change, (cumulative effects) 77 under different climate and hunger, with and without 12. Examples of agricultural climate change 36 socio-economic scenarios 33 practices leading to reductions 10. Food insecurity and climate 4. Changes in agricultural in soil carbon stocks 83 revenues associated with rising change vulnerability: Present day, worst case and temperatures, in selected areas FIGURES best case scenarios 37 of Latin America 33 1. Impacts of climate change 11. Annual average net 5. Emissions and removals on cereal yields across regions of main greenhouse gases, emissions/removals from by 2050 7 AFOLU in CO equivalent 39 by all sectors and by agriculture, 2 forestry and land use (AFOLU) 2. Shares of greenhouse gas 12. Net emissions/removals 39 emissions from economic sectors in 2010 from AFOLU in CO2 equivalent in 2010 7 in 2014, by region 40 6. Three main sources of agricultural greenhouse gas 3. Impact pathways: from 13. Share of agricultural 41 climate change to food security 21 emissions in 2014, by region emissions in CO2 equivalent in 2014, by source and 7. Impact of climate shocks 4. Projected changes in crop on agricultural output and yields for all locations at global level 40 productivity 47 worldwide owing to 14. Change in 2050 in the climate change 26 number of people at risk of hunger, 8. Impacts on crop yields under different climate effects 5. Projected changes in crop relative to the baseline scenario, after adoption of improved in Zambia 53 yields in developing regions owing to climate change 27 agricultural technologies 55 | iii | TABLES, FIGURES & BOXES 15. Economic mitigation potential 10. Benefits of water saving 23. Disaster risk reduction for in the AFOLU sector in 2030, in China 53 food security and nutrition 101 by region 85 11. Climate-smart aquaculture 24. Knowledge gaps and 16. From international in Viet Nam 55 data challenges 101 commitments and mechanisms to 12. Climate risk, diversification 25. Dedicated climate funds national policies and institutions 97 and small farmer welfare and the agriculture sectors 111 17. Average annual international in Malawi and Zambia 57 26. Towards sustainability public finance for mitigation 13. Benefits and costs of and resilience in and/or adaptation by sector investing in small sub-Saharan Africa 113 and source, 2010–14 109 farmer adaptation 61 27. Integrating climate change 18. Average annual multilateral 14. Factors that hinder into economic appraisals 117 commitments and disbursements adaptive capacity 64 by sector, 2010–14 113 28. Mainstreaming climate 15. Re-orienting research change in international BOXES for climate challenge 65 financing institutions 117 16. Carbon and nitrogen 1. Four dimensions of food security 9 in the agriculture sectors 73 2. Climate change and nutrition 9 17. Nuclear and isotopic 3. Agriculture prominent in techniques for mitigation 77 guides to country-level action 12 18. Methane abatement 4. A common vision of strategies in livestock and sustainable food and agriculture 15 paddy rice production 79 5. Summary of climate change 19. Restoration of degraded impacts on agriculture 21 grasslands in China 83 6. The impacts of extreme 20. Food system emissions: climate events 26 energy use along supply chains 85 7. Projecting climate change: 21. The agriculture sectors RCPs and SSPs 31 and UNFCCC 94 8. Rural women are among 22. The need for policy the most vulnerable 49 coherence between agriculture 9. Genetic diversity and energy 97 improves resilience 49 | iv | FOREWORD Following last year’s historic Paris change threatens all dimensions of food Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for security. It will expose both urban and rural Sustainable Development – marking a path poor to higher and more volatile food prices. towards a more sustainable future – 2016 is It will also affect food availability by about putting commitments into action. The reducing the productivity of crops, livestock rapid change in the world’s climate is and fisheries, and hinder access to food by translating into more extreme and frequent disrupting the livelihoods of millions of weather events, heat waves, droughts and rural people who depend on agriculture for sea-level rise. their incomes. The impacts of climate change on Hunger, poverty and climate change need to agriculture and the implications for food be tackled together. This is, not least, a security are already alarming – they are the moral imperative as those who are now subjects of this report. A major finding is suffering most have contributed least to the that there is an urgent need to support changing climate.