Allen County Threat and Hazard Identification Risk Assessment 2015 Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) DECEMBER 2015 0 Allen County Threat and Hazard Identification Risk Assessment 2015 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Planning Principles .................................................................................................................................... 4 The Community ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Demographics ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Special Needs Populations................................................................................................................. 6 Employment ........................................................................................................................................ 7 Transportation .................................................................................................................................... 9 The Planning Team .............................................................................................................................. 10 Identify Threats and Hazards ................................................................................................................. 11 Prioritizing Threats and Hazards ....................................................................................................... 12 Scenario Statements ............................................................................................................................. 18 Profile Threats and Hazards ................................................................................................................... 21 Vulnerability Analysis Overview ........................................................................................................ 21 Natural Hazards Analysis .................................................................................................................... 24 Floods ................................................................................................................................................. 24 Severe Thunderstorms ..................................................................................................................... 34 Tornado ............................................................................................................................................. 36 Earthquakes ....................................................................................................................................... 43 Winter Storms ................................................................................................................................... 50 Drought ............................................................................................................................................. 55 Extreme Temperatures .................................................................................................................... 58 Disease Outbreak .............................................................................................................................. 61 Invasive Species ................................................................................................................................ 66 Technological Hazards Analysis ......................................................................................................... 67 Hazardous Materials Release (Fixed-Site) ..................................................................................... 67 Hazardous Materials Release (Transportation) ............................................................................ 74 Dam/Levee Failure ........................................................................................................................... 82 Large Fire/Conflagration ................................................................................................................. 89 Public Utility Failure ........................................................................................................................ 90 Pipeline Transportation Incidents ................................................................................................. 91 Air Transportation Incidents .......................................................................................................... 93 Structural Collapse ........................................................................................................................... 95 Radiological Incident ....................................................................................................................... 95 Mass Casualty Event ........................................................................................................................ 96 Explosion ........................................................................................................................................... 97 Allen County Threat and Hazard Identification Risk Assessment 2015 Communications System Failure ................................................................................................... 98 Human-Caused Hazards Analysis ................................................................................................... 100 Active Shooter ................................................................................................................................. 100 CBRNE Attack ................................................................................................................................ 101 Terrorism ......................................................................................................................................... 102 Establish Core Capabilities .................................................................................................................... 103 “Essential Seven” Core Capabilities and Targets ............................................................................ 104 1. Planning ...................................................................................................................................... 104 2. Public Information and Warning ............................................................................................ 104 3. Operational Coordination ........................................................................................................ 104 4. Intelligence and Information Sharing .................................................................................... 105 5. Threats and Hazard Identification .......................................................................................... 105 6. Operational Communications ................................................................................................. 105 7. Situational Assessment ............................................................................................................. 106 Apply the Results .................................................................................................................................... 106 Appendices .............................................................................................................................................. 109 The following report was developed by a multi-jurisdictional, interagency local team with assistance from The Polis Center at Indiana University–Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI). The planning effort was led by the Allen County Office of Homeland Security. Allen County Threat and Hazard Identification Risk Assessment 2015 Executive Summary The Allen County Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) is an all-hazards planning tool designed to help the county understand the full-range of its risks and estimate capability requirements for the whole community including individuals, businesses, faith-based organizations, nonprofit organizations, schools and academia, and all levels of government. Allen County has produced a number of emergency operations and strategy plans to address the different phases of the disaster management cycle. Its goal is to integrate all of those plans into one comprehensive THIRA that serves as a collaborative planning tool for the entire county and serves as a baseline for all future and ongoing planning efforts in the areas of mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Figure 1 illustrates the county documents that inform this document. Figure 1: An Integrated Planning Process 1 Allen County Threat and Hazard Identification Risk Assessment 2015 The Allen County THIRA is a long-term planning KEY FACTS ABOUT initiative that will continue to be developed and refined ALLEN COUNTY over time. In this plan, the county focused on the following components: (1) identification of threats and The Fort Wayne International hazards, (2) description and context of threats and Airport serves more than 600,000 passengers per year hazards within Allen County, (3) quantitative and qualitative analyses of threats and hazards,