About the authors: Imprint Assoc. Prof. Georgi Burdarov is a PhD in Geography of the population and settlements, Head of the Department of Socio-economic Geography and Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Responsible: Geology and Geography of Sofia University "St. Helene Kortländer | Director, FES Bulgaria Kliment Ohridski ", expert in demography and Tel.: +359 2 980 8747 | Fax: +359 2 980 2438 Horizon 2030 ethno-religious conflicts. http://www.fes-bulgaria.org Horizon 2030 Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nadezhda Ilieva, PhD, is Head of Orders the Department Section of Economic and Social DemographicDemographic TendenciesTendencies Geography of the Department of Geography at the National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Commercial use of all media published by the Geography at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is not permitted without the written consent of the FES. inin BulgariaBulgaria © Cover foto: Ivan Stoimenov Sofia, 2018 Georgi Bardarov Nadezhda Ilieva The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily ISBN 978-954-2979-39-5 those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organization for which the author works. HORIZON 2030 DEMOGRAPHIC TENDENCIES IN BULGARIA Content 1. Abstract . 2 2. Introduction . 3 3. Dynamics and Development of the Population of Bulgaria since the Beginning of the 21st century . 4 4. Contemporary demographic trends, and reproductive and migratory attitudes in Europe . 6 5. Demographic Measures and Policies in Europe . 11 6. Demographic Trends and Processes in Bulgaria and Demographic Forecast up to 2030. Territorial peculiarities . 13 6 .1 Methodology . 14 6 .2 Demographic Forecast of the Population of Bulgaria . Territorial Features . .. 15 6 .3 Regional Features in the Depopulation Processes . 19 6 .4 Population Density . 24 6 .5 Trends in the Changing of Age Structure . 25 7. Possible demographic and social measures / policies to improve the demographic situation in Bulgaria . 29 1 HORIZON 2030 DEMOGRAPHIC TENDENCIES IN BULGARIA 1 . Abstract a two-tier family model through financial incentives is not realistic and is not the way to solve our prob- Although the demographic situation in Bulgaria lems . But if we manage to keep our young people has been a serious crisis for nearly 30 years, it has in the country, regardless of how many children only been the subject of public debate in the last they have, this will lead to a halt to the demograph- few years and it has been said that steps need to ic collapse and a gradual reduction of imbalances . be taken to improve it . However, this debate is pur- What is more, in the 21st century - in the digital, sued in several erroneous directions; the focus and technological world - the battle in developed soci- the measures taken are not related to the most eties will no longer be tertiary, the location of posts significant problems and this leads to a lack of re- that signify borders will be less important, it will not sults . We constantly talk about our low birth rate, be about resources in the traditional sense of the the decreasing number of babies born in absolute word - oil, coal and ores, but it will be a matter of terms each year and the aging of the population . human capital . Those societies that provide quality, Yes, they are a fact, but it is not these aspects that young, educated, and skilled human capital will be are the main problems, because in terms of the the noes to make progress . You can only generate total fertility rate (the average number of children human capital in two ways - either by creating it of a woman of childbearing age), Bulgaria with its and holding it in the country, or by drawing it from rate of 1.4 fits normally in the values ​​of Europe- elsewhere . In our current socio-economic reality an countries where this rate varies between 1 .1 we can hardly speak of attracting a large number of and 2 . In the last few years, fewer infants have educated and skilled immigrants . Then there is only been born in absolute terms (2017 - 56,436), but one thing left – we have to keep the young people this is normal, since the generation that is now we have today in the country . Measures should be of childbearing age was born in the 1990s, when channelled in two directions - education and quality Bulgaria was already in a demographic crisis, i .e . realisation . It is no secret to anyone that Bulgarian the child-bearing contingent of the population is education, both secondary and higher, is in a state shrinking all the time, a fact to which, of course, of deep crisis . It is related to quantity, not quality, the continuing emigration of people of active age and also to the complete rift between the educa- also contributes . Bulgaria is certainly among the tion system and the real needs of the labour mar- most aging nations, not only in Europe, but in- ket. This is exactly where the first measure needs deed in the world . And it is also the only state in to be, updating our education according to the real- all human history, in which the largest cohort of ities of the modern technological, information age the population of one of the sexes (female) is al- and even more according to the needs of business ready of retirement age (60-64) . But here we are in the country . The second measure is related to witnessing a demographic paradox, rather than quality and normally paid realisation of the young a real problem of aging . This is because we have people in Bulgaria . It is clear that, with salaries of one of the lowest average life expectancies in the the order of 500-600 leva (on the whole this is the EU (74.7 years), and the most aging population. starting point for young people with higher educa- This fact is due to the drastic vertical demograph- tion!), there is no way of keeping the quality human ic imbalance in the ratio of young (up to 29 years) resources in the country . Here it is as much the re- compared to old (over 60) of the population . sponsibility of the state to improve the investment climate in the country to attract foreign capital as And this is where we come to the main demograph- it is of local business that constantly complains ic problem of Bulgaria, which is related to the con- about the acute lack of labour, but does nothing to tinued constant emigration of educated and qual- create and retain it here . ified people of an active age (18-50). Thus, when talking about demography in Bulgaria, we need to As far as modern demographic trends in Europe talk about one main thing, namely the retention of are concerned, they are mostly related to the young people in the country . It would not be serious changed value system​​ of people, the increased lev- to expect a sharp rise in birth rates; even reaching el of education and well-being of people, and the 2 HORIZON 2030 DEMOGRAPHIC TENDENCIES IN BULGARIA increased realisation and commitment of women 2 . Introduction in socio-economic life . All this, coupled with the ever-accelerating pace of life, determines the low The demographic situation of a territory is deter- reproductive attitudes of the people, the two-child, mined by a number of economic, political, bio- and even only-child, model of families, and the dra- logical and social factors and, for its own part, it matic aging of European societies. From this point affects all spheres of socio-economic life . Today, of view, the issue of the refugee crisis and immigra- in the twenty-first century, we are living in an ex- tion to the continent from Africa and Asia should tremely dynamic time, a time of great changes in also be examined carefully . Because the start of all aspects of human civilisation, which are hap- this enormous wave of immigration was also trig- pening in periods of time that are so short that gered by the acute need of European countries for there is no precedent . We also have changes in young workers . And we should not forget the fact the traditional perceptions of people, in their value that in the 21st century, as a result of technology, systems, and in their perceptions and expecta- communications, and the fall of the borders a glob- tions of their lives and the lives of their children . al movement of population is to be expected . And in these processes, the societies to gain and develop All these changes have a direct effect on the progressively will be those that are the fastest and reproductive and migratory attitudes of people . most adaptable to change . The entire history of the Two fundamentally opposite demographic pro- human race, from the evolutionary theory, shows cesses are happening in the world that highlight us that those who survive and progress are not many challenges to the future development of the strongest, not the smartest, not the richest, but the world . On one hand, there is a demographic those who adapt best to changes. Europe needs explosion, uncontrollably high birth rate and the to adapt to these changes, first and foremost in its accumulation of an excessively young population way of thinking and, as a result, through adequate in developing countries, and on the other hand, policies and measures . an ever-lower birth rate and unprecedented aging of the population in the developed world . From Among the important objectives of the present this point of view, Europe is experiencing a demo- study there is also an aim of making a compre- graphic transition that seriously jeopardises the hensive demographic forecast related to popu- functioning of its economic and social systems .