Ely Area Capacity Enhancements Programme Strategic Outline Business Case (Refresh of 2016 Interim SOBC) IN PARTNERSHIP with 1 Prepared by: Signature: Job Title: Programme Business Case & Assurance Manager Date: Checked by: Signature: Job Title: Senior Sponsor Date: Strategic Case approved by: Signature: Job Title: Head of Strategic Planning Date: Date: 2 Disclaimer In issuing this document for its stated purpose, the Network Rail EACE Programme makes no warranty, express or implied, that compliance with all or any documents it issues is sufficient on its own to ensure safe system of work or operation. Users are reminded of their own duties under health and safety legislation. All references made within this document were considered correct at time of approval. Supply Copies of this document are available electronically via Network Rail System Operator only Control This document shall be deemed uncontrolled once printed. This document is applicable to: Ely Area Capacity Enhancement Programme and all its associated packages including any Level Crossing design assessment, feasibility and option development work. Version History Date Version Amendments and summary of changes 08 Sep 2016 0.1 Initial draft 22 Sep 2016 0.2 Second draft 28 Sep 2016 0.3 Amendments to the Strategic, Economic and Management Cases 05 Oct 2016 0.4 Further amendments to the Strategic and Economic Cases 11 Oct 2016 0.5 Amendments following comments from the DfT and inclusion of Appendices 13 Oct 2016 1.0 Final amendments & issue to LEPs Updates from GRIP 2 discovery design phase & alignment with DfT new 04 May 2018 1.1 RNEP processes 13/06/18 1.2 Issued to Sponsor for input 09/10/18 1.3 Updated to include Level Crossing Strategy Ref: v. 1 August 2018 04/01/19 2.0 Working Draft (without strategic case) issued to DfT for review 14/01/19 2.1 Strategic Case update incorporated 15/01/19 2.2 Working Draft issued to DfT for review and guidance General Notes 3 Abbreviations & Glossary Abbreviation or Meaning Phrase IP Infrastructure Projects (Anglia) DfT Department for Transport SOBC Strategic Outline Business Case OBC Outline Business Case FBC Full Business Case LDE Lead Design Engineer WITA Wider Economic Impacts Assessments WEI Wider Economic Impacts IDF DfT’s Investment Decision Framework MEC’s DfT’s Marginal External Costs AXIAT Level Crossing Economic Impact Model LEP Local Enterprise Partnership NR Network Rail GRIP Governance for Railway Investment Projects ALCRM All Level Crossings Risk Model ORR Office of Rail and Road EACE Ely Area Capacity Enhancement (Programme) MoU Memorandum of Understanding MOIRA Timetable Management Tool LCST Level Crossing Safety Team BCR Benefit Cost Ratio IPA Infrastructure Projects Authority CSF(s) Critical Success Factor(s) RNEP Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline AHB Automatic Half Barrier WAML West Anglia Main Line ECML East Coast Main Line TPH Trains Per Hour ALARP As Low as Is Reasonably Practicable 4 Contents Introduction ...................................................................... 3 Overview .......................................................... 3 The scheme .......................................................... 3 Background and Context .......................................................... 4 Executive Summary ......................................................... 6 Strategic Case .................................................................. 8 Purpose .......................................................... 8 Business Strategy .......................................................... 8 The case for change .......................................................... 9 The Problem ........................................................ 11 Why Ely (and Haughley), & Why Now? ......................................... 13 Other rail freight benefactors of EACE .......................................... 15 Geographical and local Context ..................................................... 15 Housing ........................................................ 17 Exploring the options and strategic alternatives ............................ 19 Meeting the strategic objectives .................................................... 23 What the are interdependencies .................................................... 24 Stakeholders support for the scheme ............................................ 25 ECONOMIC CASE .......................................................... 26 ADD PURPOSE and check all the numbering and cross referencing 26 Scheme Options ........................................................ 26 This section summarises scheme options and the Base Case. Section D.03 addresses appraisal assumptions and methodology. Section D.04 presents the sensitivity analysis and risks. Section D.05 presents conclusions. .......................... 26 Scheme options and the Base Case - This section presents the scheme options and the Base Case in turn, and then summarises them in a table. .................................................... 26 An increase in off-peak frequency between Ely and Kings Lynn from 1 tph to 2 tph, by extending a Kings Cross to Ely service. 27 Appraisal results 40 Sensitivity analysis and risks 41 Appraisal risks 42 Conclusions on economic case ..................................................... 43 Financial Case ................................................................ 44 ADD PURPOSE 44 Order of Magnitude/ GRIP 1 Estimate ........................................... 44 E.02 Lifecycle Costing 44 Commercial Case ........................................................... 45 ADD PURPOSE 45 Commercial viability of the scheme ............................................... 45 Procurement Strategy 46 Governance and Investment 48 Management Case ......................................................... 50 ADD PURPOSE 50 Governance 50 Assurance Plan 51 Programme Dependencies 52 Stakeholder Management and Communication ............................. 54 Introduction Overview The purpose of this appraisal is to advise the Local Enterprise Partnership, the Combined Authority and the DfT on the level of infrastructure intervention(s) required at Ely and the surrounding area to meet current growth forecasts to support short term rail growth. This document submission looks to outline the outcomes of early development work which has been undertaken since the interim SOBC (2016) development funding was granted by the Local Enterprise Partnership. Due to the funding stream availability, the SOBC has now been updated to include an Economic Case, including a value for money assessment and Benefit Cost Ratio. Unlike the interim SOBC submitted in 2016, which focussed primarily on the strategic case, this SOBC submission looks to provide an update to all the cases including the previously issued strategic case. An OBC is being developed for Ely Area Capacity Enhancement programme which is aiming for submission in 2019. The OBC is looking to be integrated business case for Rail, Road and Level Crossing interventions. The study area and rail lines in consideration for the Ely Area Capacity Enhancement (EACE) Programme is as follows: Figure A:1 Study Areas and Rail Lines The scheme The Ely Area Capacity Enhancement (EACE) Programme is a portfolio of work identified in response to the finding of Network Rail’s Anglia Route Study, published in 2016. The Anglia Route Study confirms the need for an extensive infrastructure enhancement programme to upgrade the rail network in the Ely Area with the aim of facilitating increased freight services from Felixstowe, additional services between London Kings cross and King’s Lynn, increased regional services from Ipswich to Peterborough and Cambridge, Norwich to Cambridge and increased inter-regional services to and from the Midlands and beyond. The overall scheme aims to develop options which can deliver the capacity for at least 11tph (8tph passenger, 3tph freight) through the Ely area. There are 117 level crossings that will be affected principally by the increase in safety risk at the level crossings by these proposed improvements in the Ely Area and the lines that connect to it. The area is a significant railway interchange on the Anglia Network which is currently running at below optimal capacity for both frieght and passenger services in the region. It links the West Anglia Main Line from London to Kings Lynn with the cross-country route from Felixstowe to Peterborough. No fewer than five railway lines converge in the Ely area (which can be seen in the below figure): Figure A:2 Rail lines converging at Ely Several interventions are required to form the overall scheme. These include a series of works on rail, road and level crossings. At the time of that this business case was being prepared, a single option was not available for all the components of the scheme. Background and Context The doubling of Ely North Junction was originally committed to be developed in CP5 as a standalone scheme. However, the decision was taken in conjunction with Sir Peter Hendy’s Enhancements Deliverability Review in autumn 2015 to defer it to CP6. This was coupled with the fact that, in isolation and without associated enhancements such as level crossings, the scheme would not deliver any capacity uplift through the Ely area. A second outcome of the Hendy Review was the withdrawal of the CP6 Development fund, previously available to commence development work on schemes deemed significant per route. Even if funding is granted for this scheme, this is not likely to become