THE GOVERNMENT OF THE GAMBIA INTEGRATED HOUSEHOLD SURVEY 2015/16 Volume III Prevalence and Depth of Poverty Gambia Bureau of Statistics Banjul, The Gambia October 2017 Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................. iii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF ANNEXES.............................................................................................................................. iv ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS............................................................................................... v FOREWORD ........................................................................................................................................ vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................ viii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1 - BACKGROUND, SURVEY METHODOLOGY AND ORGANIZATION ................. 1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Socio-economic Environment ................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Objectives of the Integrated Household Survey (IHS) ............................................................. 4 1.4 Sampling and Coverage of the Survey ...................................................................................... 4 1.4.1 Sampling ............................................................................................................................. 4 1.4.2 Sample selection and implementation ................................................................................ 5 1.4.3. Sample probabilities and Sampling weights ....................................................................... 8 1.4.4. Weights adjustments ........................................................................................................... 8 1.4.5 Survey instruments ............................................................................................................. 9 1.5 Training of survey teams.......................................................................................................... 10 1.6 Survey Organization ............................................................................................................... 11 1.7 Data Collection ....................................................................................................................... 11 1.8 Data Processing ....................................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 2 - POVERTY CONCEPTS ................................................................................................. 13 2.1 Poverty Measures .................................................................................................................... 13 2.1.1 Poverty Headcount Index ................................................................................................. 13 2.1.2 Poverty Gap Index ........................................................................................................... 14 2.1.3 Poverty Severity Index .................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Inequality Measures ................................................................................................................ 14 2.2.1 Gini Coefficient ............................................................................................................... 15 2.2.2 The Palma Index ............................................................................................................... 16 2.2.3 The Decile Ratio ............................................................................................................... 16 Chapter 3 - POVERTY MEASURMENT .......................................................................................... 18 3.1 Definition and Construction of Well-being ............................................................................ 18 3.1.1 Aggregation of Food Consumption Expenditure .............................................................. 19 3.1.2 Aggregation of Non-food Consumption Expenditure ...................................................... 19 i 3.1.3 Exclusions to welfare aggregate ....................................................................................... 20 3.2 Food Basket............................................................................................................................. 20 3.3 Poverty lines ............................................................................................................................ 23 3.4 Adjusting for Spatial and Seasonal Price Variation ................................................................ 23 Chapter 4 – OVERVIEW OF EXPENDITURE PATTERNS ......................................................... 26 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 26 4.2 Food Expenditure by Source ................................................................................................... 26 4.3 Sources of Food by Expenditure Decile ................................................................................. 27 4.4 Food Consumption by COICOP classes ................................................................................. 27 4.5 Food and non-food expenditure .............................................................................................. 30 4.6 Household Consumption Patterns ........................................................................................... 33 Chapter 5 – POVERTY MAIN FINDINGS ....................................................................................... 35 5.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 35 5.2 Comparability with IHS 2010 ................................................................................................. 35 5.3 Absolute poverty ..................................................................................................................... 36 5.3.1 National poverty estimates ............................................................................................... 36 5.3.2 Poverty by Geographical Location ................................................................................... 37 5.3.3 Poverty Gap and Poverty Severity Index .......................................................................... 39 5.3.4 District poverty for 2015/16 ............................................................................................. 40 5.4 Extreme Poverty ...................................................................................................................... 40 5.5 Food Insecurity ....................................................................................................................... 43 Chapter 6 – MEASURES OF INEQUALITY.................................................................................... 45 6.1 Gini.......................................................................................................................................... 45 6.2 Expenditure share distribution by wealth ................................................................................ 45 6.3 The Palma Index ..................................................................................................................... 46 6.4 Decile Dispersion Ratio .......................................................................................................... 47 Chapter 7 - CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMMENDATION ....................................... 49 7.1 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 49 7.2 Policy Recommendations ........................................................................................................ 51 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 53 ii LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Poverty surveys Conducted in The Gambia ............................................................................ 2 Table 1.2: First Stage Sampling Probability of Enumeration Areas by Local Government Area and District, 2015/16 ..................................................................................................................... 6 Table 1.3: Allocation of Households by Local Government Area and District, 2015/16 ........................ 7 Table 3.1: Food Basket of the Poorest 30-55 Percentiles Population, 2015/16 ..................................... 21 Table 3.2: Selected implementation approaches of Calories for some countries ................................... 22 Table 3.3: Poverty lines, 2015/16 ........................................................................................................... 23 Table 4.1: Food Shares by Key