Attainment Determination for the Revoked 1-hour Ozone Standard May 5, 2014 Attachment A Exceptional Event Document A-1 | SJVUAPCD Attainment Determination for the Revoked 1-hour Ozone Standard May 5, 2014 This page intentionally blank. A-2 | SJVUAPCD Exceptional Event Documentation, Fresno–Drummond, August 10, 2012 Exceptional Event Documentation Fresno, California August 10, 2012 San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 18, 2013 i SJVUAPCD Exceptional Event Documentation, Fresno–Drummond, August 10, 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 1 Section 1: Meeting Federal Requirements for Exceptional Events .............................................. 2 1.1 Procedural Requirements ................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Documentation Requirements ......................................................................................... 3 Section 2: Air Pollutant Controls in the San Joaquin Valley ......................................................... 4 Section 3: Ozone Concentrations were Caused by an Industrial Accident (Richmond Oil Refinery Fire) and Wildfire Exceptional Event ............................................................. 6 3.1 An Exceptional Event Occurred on August 10, 2012 ....................................................... 7 3.1.1 Meteorological Analysis… ......................................................................................... 9 3.2 Industrial Accident Emissions Infiltrated the Valley and Affected Air Quality ................. 11 3.2.1 Source – Receptor Analysis: Forward Trajectory…. .............................................. 11 3.3 Wildfire Emissions Infiltrated the Valley and Affected Air Quality .................................. 12 3.3.1 Emissions from the Chips Fire… ............................................................................ 13 3.3.2 Emissions from the Bear Fire and Piute Complex…. .............................................. 19 3.3.3 The Impact of Wildfire Smoke Emissions on Ozone Concentrations… .................. 19 3.3.4 Ozone Movement through the Valley ...................................................................... 20 3.3.5 Source – Receptor Analysis: Backward Trajectory ................................................. 22 3.4 August 10, 2012 Exceptional Event Media Coverage ................................................... 27 Section 4: 1-Hour Ozone Concentration on August 10, 2012 was in Excess of Normal Historical Fluctuations and the “But For” Test ........................................................... 28 4.1 Historical Analysis .......................................................................................................... 28 4.1.1 Peak Values ............................................................................................................ 28 4.1.2 Infrequency of Exceedances ................................................................................... 29 4.1.3 Examination of Ozone Levels, Temperature, and Solar Radiation ......................... 32 4.2 Equivalent Days ............................................................................................................. 36 4.2.1 Selection of Equivalent Days .................................................................................. 36 4.2.2 Analysis of Equivalent Days .................................................................................... 37 4.2.3 Diurnal Profiles of Equivalent Days ......................................................................... 38 4.3 Regression Analysis ...................................................................................................... 39 4.3.1 Method .................................................................................................................... 39 4.3.2 Estimated Uncertainty of Predictive Equation ......................................................... 40 4.3.3 Predicted Values for Equivalent Days and Exceptional Event ................................ 40 4.3.4 Analysis Results ...................................................................................................... 41 Section 5: Trans-boundary Ozone Effect on Valley Air Quality ................................................. 41 Section 6: Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 42 Section 7: References ................................................................................................................ 43 ii SJVUAPCD Exceptional Event Documentation, Fresno–Drummond, August 10, 2012 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Location of the Chevron oil refinery industrial accident and wildfires that were occurring in California between August 6 and 9, 2012. ......................................................... 7 Figure 2: Fresno-Drummond Ozone and Wind Roses for August 10, 2012. ............................. 10 Figure 3: Richmond Chevron Oil Refinery smoke plume on August 6, 2012. ............................ 11 Figure 4: Forward Trajectories from the Richmond oil refinery industrial accident at 75 (red), 100 (blue), and 125 (yellow) meters on August 06, 2012. .................................................. 12 Figure 5: Chips Fire in Plumas County (top), Bear Fire in Fresno County (bottom left), and Piute Complex in Kern County (bottom right). .............................................................................. 13 Figure 6: Smoke from Chips Fire on August 3, 2012. ................................................................ 14 Figure 7: Smoke from Chips Fire on August 4, 2012. ................................................................ 15 Figure 8a: Smoke plume impacting the San Joaquin Valley from the Piute Complex and Bear Fires on August 6, 2012. ..................................................................................................... 16 Figure 8b: Smoke plume impacting the San Joaquin Valley from the Chips and Bear Fires on August 8, 2012. ................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 8c: Smoke plume impacting the San Joaquin Valley from the Chips Fire on August 9, 2012. ................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 9: Sacramento Lower Air Profiler. ................................................................................... 18 Figure 10: Smoke from the Bear Fire and Piute Complex on August 7, 2012. .......................... 19 Figure 11: Fresno-Drummond diurnal ozone profile from August 4 through August 13, 2012. .. 20 Figure 12: Fresno-Drummond, August 2012 12:00 PM Ozone Concentrations (ppb) 3-Day Averages. ............................................................................................................................ 21 Figure 13: Backward trajectory showing location of air mass arriving at the 10 (red), 25 (blue), and 100 (yellow) meters above ground level at Fresno-Drummond around 1:00 PM PST on August 10, 2012. ................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 14: Location of air mass between 1:00 AM PST (August 10) and 1:00 PM PST (August 10) arriving in Fresno at 1:00 PM PST on August 10, 2012. ............................................... 24 Figure 15: Location of air mass between 1:00 PM PST (August 9) and 1:00 AM PST (August 10) arriving in Fresno at 1:00 PM PST, August 10, 2012. ................................................... 25 Figure 16: Location of air mass between 1:00 AM PST (August 9) and 1:00 PM PST (August 9) arriving in Fresno at 1:00 PM PST, August 10, 2012. ......................................................... 26 Figure 17: Location of air mass between 1:00 PM PST (August 8) and 1:00 AM PST (August 9) arriving in Fresno at 1:00 PM PST, August 10, 2012. ......................................................... 27 Figure 18: Fresno-Drummond Maximum 1-Hour Ozone Frequency Distribution (August only, 2004 through 2013). ............................................................................................................ 30 Figure 19: Fresno-Drummond Maximum 1-Hour Ozone Frequency Distribution (May 1st to September 30 only, 2004 through 2013). ............................................................................ 31 Figure 20: Fresno-Drummond August Maximum 1-Hour Ozone Box Whisker Plot Showing August 10, 2012 is in Excess of Historical Fluctuations and is an Outlier. .......................... 32 Figure 21: Fresno-Drummond August 1-hour ozone concentrations measured between 12:00 PM and 1:00 PM PST by day. ............................................................................................. 33 Figure 22: Fresno-Drummond, August 2012, 12:00 PM Measured Ozone Values, 3-Day Averages. ............................................................................................................................ 34 Figure 23: Fresno-Drummond, August 2012, 12:00 PM Measured Temperature Values, 3-Day Averages. ............................................................................................................................ 35 Figure 24: Clovis, August 2012, 12:00 PM, Measured Solar Radiation, 3-Day Averages. ........ 36 Figure 25: Maximum 1-hour ozone