The Journal of JIPA Indo-Pacific Affairs Chief of Staff, US Air Force Gen Charles Q. Brown, Jr., USAF Chief of Space Operations, US Space Force Gen John W. Raymond, USSF Commander, Air Education and Training Command Lt Gen Marshall B. Webb, USAF Commander and President, Air University Lt Gen James B. Hecker, USAF Director, Air University Academic Services Dr. Mehmed Ali Director, Air University Press Maj Richard T. Harrison, USAF Chief of Professional Journals Maj Richard T. Harrison, USAF Editorial Staff Dr. Ernest Gunasekara-Rockwell, Editor Luyang Yuan, Editorial Assistant Daniel M. Armstrong, Illustrator Megan N. Hoehn, Print Specialist Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs ( JIPA) 600 Chennault Circle Maxwell AFB AL 36112-6010 e-mail: [email protected] Visit Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs online at https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/. ISSN 2576-5361 (Print) ISSN 2576-537X (Online) Published by the Air University Press, The Journal of Indo–Pacific Affairs ( JIPA) is a professional journal of the Department of the Air Force and a forum for worldwide dialogue regarding the Indo–Pacific region, spanning from the west coasts of the Americas to the eastern shores of Africa and covering much of Asia and all of Oceania. The journal fosters intellectual and professional development for members of the Air and Space Forces and the world’s other English-speaking militaries and informs decision makers and academicians around the globe. Articles submitted to the journal must be unclassified, nonsensitive, and releasable to the public. Features represent fully researched, thoroughly documented, and peer-reviewed scholarly articles 5,000 to 6,000 words in length. Views articles are shorter than Features—3,000 to 5,000 words—typically expressing well-thought-out and developed opinions about regional topics. The Commentary section offers a forum about current subjects of interest. These short posts are 1,500 to 2,500 words in length. Submit all manuscripts to [email protected]. The views and opinions expressed or implied in JIPA are those of the authors and should not be construed as carrying the official sanction of the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, Air Education and Training Command, Air University, or other agencies or departments of the US government. https://www.af.mil/ https://www.spaceforce.mil/ https://www.aetc.af.mil/ https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/ Editorial Advisors Gen Kenneth S. Wilsbach, USAF, Commander, Pacific Air Forces Gen Herbert J. Carlisle, USAF, Retired; President & CEO, National Defense Industrial Association Amb. Daniel Shields, Retired, Department of State Maj Richard T. Harrison, Director, Air University Press Reviewers Air Cdre Nasim Abbas, PAF Lt Col Alexander B. Fafinski, Dr. Amit Kumar Mr. Richard M. Rossow Instructor USAF President Senior Adviser and Wadhwani Air War College (Pakistan) Military Professor, National AAA International Security Chair in US–India Policy Studies Security Affairs Consultants Dr. Sascha-Dominik “Dov” Center for Strategic and Interna- US Naval War College Bachmann Dr. Suzanne Levi-Sanchez tional Studies Professor of Law and Justice Dr. Ian C. Forsyth Assistant Professor, National University of Canberra (Australia) Analyst Security Affairs Maj Gary J. Sampson, USMC Department of Defense US Naval War College Speechwriter/Special Assistant to Dr. Lewis Bernstein the CJCS Historian, retired Dr. Jai Galliott Lt Col Scott D. McDonald US Army Defense Analyst, Cyber Security United States Marine Corps, Dr. Yoichiro Sato University of New South Wales– retired Dr. Paul J. Bolt Professor Canberra @ ADFA Professor, Political Science Dr. Montgomery McFate Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific US Air Force Academy Maj Jessica Gott, USAF Professor, Strategic and Opera- University Strategy Officer tional Research CDR John F. Bradford, US US Naval War College Cmdre Abhay Kumar Singh, Navy, ret. Dr. Manabrata Guha Executive Director Senior Lecturer/ Senior Research retired Dr. Sandeep "Frag" Mulgund Research Fellow Yokosuka Council on Asia–Pacific Fellow Senior Advisor (HQE) Institute for Defence Studies and Studies University of New South Wales– Deputy Chief of Staff, Operations Canberra @ ADFA (AF/A3) Analyses Dr. Sean Braniff Headquarters United States Air Asst. Professor, International Dr. Achala Gunasekara- Mr. Daniel K. Taylor Force Security Studies Rockwell Defense Intelligence Officer for US Air War College Adjunct Professor, Foreign Lan- Dr. Brendan S. Mulvaney East Asia guages & Literatures Director Dr. David Brewster Defense Intelligence Agency Senior Research Fellow, National University of Alabama at Bir- China Aerospace Studies Institute Security College mingham Dr. Lavanya Vemsani Dr. Satoru Nagao Professor, History and Religious Australian National University Visiting Fellow Dr. Amit Gupta Studies Professor, International Security Hudson Institute Dr. Stephen F. Burgess Shawnee State University Professor, International Security Studies Dr. Dayne Nix Studies US Air War College Professor, Joint Maritime Opera- Dr. Michael E. Weaver US Air War College Associate Professor Dr. Akhlaque Haque tions Dr. Chester B. Cabalza Professor, Political Science & US Naval War College Air Command and Staff College Vice President, Center of Re- Public Admin. Dr. Frank O’Donnell University of Alabama at Bir- Mr. Keith Webster search and Strategic Studies Postdoctoral Fellow, National Senior Vice President for Defense Development Academy of the mingham Security Affairs and Aerospace Philippines US Naval War College Dr. Jessica Jordan US–India Strategic Partnership Assistant Professor Mr. Eric Chan Dr. Jagannath P. Panda Forum Policy Analyst Air Force Culture and Language Research Fellow & Centre US Air Force Center Coordinator, East Asia Brig Gen Craig D. Wills, Dr. Adam Claasen Dr. Isaac Kardon Manohar Parrikar Institute for USAF Senior Lecturer in History Assistant Professor, China Mari- Defense Studies & Analyses Director of Strategy, Plans, and Massey University time Studies Institute Programs Dr. James E. Platte US Naval War College CDR Mark R. Condeno Assistant Professor Pacific Air Forces Philippine Coast Guard Center for Unconventional Maj Gen Brian Killough, Dr. Roland B. Wilson Weapons Studies Dr. Zack Cooper USAF, ret. Program Coordinator & Professor Former Deputy Commander, Senior Fellow for Asian Security Dr. Terence Roehrig of Conflict Analysis & Resolution Headquarters Pacific Air Forces Center for Strategic and Interna- Professor, National Security George Mason University, Korea tional Studies Affairs Mr. Chris Kolakowski Campus Director US Naval War College Dr. Scott Edmondson Wisconsin Veterans Museum Assistant Professor, Regional and Dr. Jim Rolfe Dr. Austin Wyatt Research Associate Cultural Studies Dr. Carlo Kopp Senior Fellow, Centre for Strate- Air Force Culture and Language Lecturer gic Studies University of New South Wales– Center Monash University Victoria University of Wellington Canberra @ ADFA VOL. 3 NO. 5 SPECIAL ISSUE 2020 INTRODUCTION 3 Quad Plus Form versus Substance Jagannath Panda BEIJING, QUAD, AND THE QUAD PLUS 14 “Sea Foam in the Ocean” or an “Asian NATO”? Chinese Views of the Quad Jeffrey Becker 28 US–China Strategic Competition and Washington’s Conception ofAkriti Quad Vasudeva Plus 44 India and the Quad Plus Between Pointed-Alignment and Conjectural Alliance Jagannath P. Panda 73 Japan and the Quad Plus A Japanese View for the Development and Expansion of the Quad in the Age of War on the Novel Coronavirus Hideshi Tokuchi 87 A Quad Plus? The Prospects for Australia and New Zealand Miguel A. Hijar-Chiapa THE PLUS PERSPECTIVES 106 Whose Centrality? ASEAN and the Quad in the Indo-Pacific Evan A. Laksmana 118 JohnBritain Hemmings and andthe James Quadrilateral Rogers 131 South Korea’s Perspective on Quad Plus and Evolving Indo-Pacific SecurityKuyoun Chung Architecture 146 Israel and Quad Plus A Pivot to Asia and through the Indian Ocean Giuseppe Dentice 165 France’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Quad Plus Celine Pajon 179 Quad-Plus? Carving out Canada’s Middle Power Role Stephen R. Nagy 196 Brazil in the Quad Plus Incongruous or Extended Drawbridge of the Indo-Pacific? Dattesh Parulekar A VIEW FROM THE OTHERS 210 Russia and Quad Plus Is There a Way Forward? Anna Kireeva and Alexei Kupriyanov 229 Indian Ocean Island States and the Quad Plus Nilanthi Samaranayake 240 Connectivity and the Quad Powers: Revisiting History and Thought Lavanya Vemsani 257 Realistic Expectations The China Factor in the Australia–US Perspective on the Indo-Pacific Amit Gupta 269 The Middle East and the Quad Plus Brendon Cannon 285 Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran Triangularity and the Quad Plus Countering China’s Growing Influence Kenta Aoki INTRODUCTION Quad Plus Form versus Substance DR. JAGANNATH PANDA GUEST EDITOR The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (hereon, Quad 2.0) has become increas- ingly institutionalized and a normalized part of diplomacy for the four member countries—Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. After a 10-year gap from when the mechanism was first introduced in 2007, Quad 2.0 resumed in 2017 with biannual meetings between the four major Indo-Pacific democratic powers. At present, the Quad process has secured official traction among these states and is considered a vital part of their Indo-Pacific strategies. By comparison, the concept of “Quad Plus” is currently an abstract one, seen as an extended version of the Quad framework—whether it will materialize into a more concrete grouping remains unknown. The idea of Quad Plus refers to a minilateral engagement