The Brazilian Case The influence of the protests and the World Cup 2014 on the Brazilian presidential elections Written by Jeroen Haans December 2014 Presented to the Faculty of Social Science Aalborg University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Development and International Relations Supervisor: Steen Fryba Christensen Abstract In this thesis the interconnecting aspects of the Brazilian protests, the FIFA World Cup 2014 and the Brazilian presidential elections are investigated. Those unique elements combined in roughly one years’ time, make it ‘The Brazilian Case’. The data that is collected in order to answer the research questions is collected through a combination of desk- and field research. The desk research focuses on the protests, the process previous to the presidential elections and the final outcome. The field research attributes to the investigation of the role of the World Cup in voting behavior. The year 2007 is chosen as starting point for this research because in this year Brazil was officially awarded host for the World Cup 2014. The analysis starts with describing the socio-economic context leading-up to the protests and the environment in which they took place. The administrations of Lula and Dilma are examined and the causes of the protests discussed. In a particular section, the World Cup and its attribution to the protests and its indirect influence on voting behavior are addressed. Even though changes in attitude by the Brazilian population towards their representatives are detectable, the feelings of dissatisfaction did not lead to the election of a new president. The Brazilian electorate decided in favor of four more years PT and Dilma Rousseff. The process and the reasons for her reelection are analyzed. Through interviews, the effect of the World Cup on the presidential elections is examined. It is possible to conclude that the Copa played a role in the demonstrations but was in itself not a major subject in the debates previous the presidential elections. The majority of the interviewed Brazilians stated that they reckoned that the World Cup was not an issue for fellow Brazilians when they made their choice to vote for a presidential candidate. Key words: Brazil, protests, World Cup 2014, presidential elections 2 Acknowledgements It was the first day in 2012 when I decided that I wanted to pursue my dream, follow my heart and take-up the challenge to study towards a master’s degree. I was on a backpack journey through New Zealand with the purpose to make a decision in which way to go with my life. I was at a crossroads where one direction would lead me towards a career in tourism and the other towards lectures and scientific articles. I have never regretted the choice for the latter. The decision to go to Aalborg University brought me many things that are crucial and seem indispensable in my current life. After a successful first year I was ready to go on an internship. It turned out in a different way, I found an interesting internship at the UNDP in Suriname but they were only able to host me in the first months of 2015. After some consideration I decided, in coalition with AAU, to switch the internship with the thesis. Therefore the challenging journey of writing a thesis started sooner than expected. Along this journey I received the help of many individuals in multiple kinds of ways and I would like to take a moment and express my appreciation. First, I would like to express my gratitude to Steen Fryba Christensen for supervising my thesis. He provided many useful insights, different points of view and constructive critics. Second, I thank all the people in Brazil who helped me in one way or another. The persons who I interviewed: Thaís Tanini, Gustavo Fonseca Saunier, Leandro Costa, Tamirys Prado Martins, Jomar Henrique, Rômulo Hermeto, Luciana Rodrigues, Érico Fasolo & Thiago Folle Sirena, the mayor of Porto Alegre José Fortunati, professor Bruno Lima Rocha and Arthur Alffaro, they provided indispensable information for this thesis. Third are the Brazilians who provided me a place to stay, Leandro Costa, Rômulo Hermeto, Fernando Carara Lemos and Augusto Baladeva, their hospitality was heartwarming and their knowledge of ‘The Brazilian Case’ very helpful. Fourth, I want to thank Julie Lind Madsen because she helped me in many ways; coming-up with good ideas, translating from Portuguese to English, letting me stay for eighteen days in Brasília and she introduced me to the Brazilian way of life. Last but not least I would like to thank my family and especially my parents who are always there for me. I want to finish with dedicating this thesis to Willem Haans, who was born while I was in Rio de Janeiro on October 7th. Westervoort, December 11, 2014 3 Table of content Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….....2 Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………………………………………..…………….3 Table of content……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4 Abbreviations and Translations……………………………………………………………………………..…………….7 List of Figures and Tables……….…………………………………………………………………………..………………..9 1. Preface………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………………….10 1.1 Why countries host main sport events……………………………………………………………….10 1.1.1 The Barcelona-effect…………………..……………………………………………………….11 1.1.2 The Rugby 1995 tournament and the Rainbow Nation…………………………11 1.2 Brazilian intentions…………………………………………………………………………………………….12 2. Introduction…………………………..……………………………………………………………………………………….14 2.1 Problem statement…………………………………………………………………………………………….14 2.2 Relevancy……………………………………..……………………………………………………………………16 3. Empirical background………………..……………………………………………………………………………………17 3.1 Football is religion………………………………………………………………………………………………17 3.2 The political arena………………….………………………………………………………………………….19 4. Theoretical framework……………………………………………………………………………………………………21 4.1 Attitude………………………………………………………………………………………………………………21 4.2 Social movement theory……………………………………………………………………………………..22 4.2.1 Collective behavior………………………………………………………………………………22 4.2.2 Resource mobilization theory………………………………………………………………23 4.2.3 Political process theory………………………………………………………………………..24 4.2.4 Culture theory……………………………………………………………………………………..25 4.2.5 New social movement theory………………………………………………………………25 5. Methodology………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….27 5.1 Philosophical debate………………………………………………………………………………………….27 4 5.2 Collection of data……………………………………………………………………………………………….28 5.2.1 Managing the data from interviews……………………………………………………..30 5.3 Sampling…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….31 5.4 Limitations…………………………………………………………………………………………………………32 6. Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…35 6.1 The period 2007-2013………………………………………………………………………………………..35 6.1.1 Brazilians celebrate after being awarded host World Cup……………………35 6.1.2 Lula’s administration……………………………………………………………………………36 6.1.2.1 Economic progression……………………………………………………………37 6.1.2.2 Social programs……………………………………………………………………..38 6.1.2.3 Lula’s approval rates……………………………………………………………..39 6.1.3 Dilma takes over………………………………………………………………………………….39 6.1.3.1 New economic situation………………………………………………………..40 6.1.3.2 Fight against poverty and inequality………………………………………41 6.1.3.3 Healthcare and education……………………….…………………………….42 6.2 The protests……………………………………………………………………………………………………….43 6.2.1 Causes of the protests………………………………………………………………………….43 6.2.1.1 Bus fare…………………………………………………………………………………43 6.2.1.2 Dissatisfaction with the government……………………………………..44 6.2.1.3 Education………………………………………………………………………………47 6.2.1.4 Healthcare…………………………………………………………………………….49 6.2.2 Specific role of the FIFA and the World Cup in the protests…………………50 6.2.3 Goals of the protests, where they took place and who participated…….52 6.3 The presidential elections ’14…………………………………………………………………………….55 6.3.1 The president for next four years…………………………………………………………55 6.3.2 Presenting the qualitative data……………………………………………………………57 6.3.3 Specific role of the World Cup on voting behavior……………………………….59 7. Discussion and Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………………………….61 7.1 Discussion…………………………………………..……………………………………………………………..61 7.2 Conclusions………….…………………………………………………………………………………………….62 7.3 Limitations and future research………………………………………………………………………….63 5 Bibliography……………………………………….………………………………………………………………………………64 Appendices…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………74 Appendix I interview guide………………………………………………………………………………………74 Appendix II transcription interview with Thaís Tanini……………………………………………….75 Appendix III transcription interview with Gustavo Fonseca Saunier ………………………..82 Appendix IV transcription interview with Leandro Costa..………………………………………..88 Appendix V transcription interview with Tamirys Prado Martins……………………………..94 Appendix VI transcription interview with Jomar Henrique .……………………………………103 Appendix VII transcription interview with Rômulo Hermeto …………………………………106 Appendix VIII transcription interview with Luciana Rodrigues………………………………..115 Appendix IX transcription interview with Érico Fasolo & Thiago Folle Sirena………….122 Appendix X transcription interview with José Fortunati (mayor of Porto Alegre)……131 Appendix XI transcription interview with Bruno Lima Rocha (professor)………………..141 Appendix XII transcription interview with Arthur Alffaro……………………………………….150 Appendix XIII Figures 2, 3 and 4……………………………………………………………………………..157 6 Abbreviations and Translations Abbreviations AAU – Aalborg University BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa BSM –