AN AVALANCHE IS COMING HIGHER EDUCATION AND THE REVOLUTION AHEAD ESSAY Michael Barber Katelyn Donnelly Saad Rizvi Foreword by Lawrence Summers, President Emeritus, Harvard University March 2013 © IPPR 2013 Institute for Public Policy Research AN AVALANCHE IS COMING Higher education and the revolution ahead Michael Barber, Katelyn Donnelly, Saad Rizvi March 2013 ‘It’s tragic because, by my reading, should we fail to radically change our approach to education, the same cohort we’re attempting to “protect” could find that their entire future is scuttled by our timidity.’ David Puttnam Speech at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, June 2012 i ABOUT THE AUTHORS Sir Michael Barber is the chief education advisor at Pearson, leading Pearson’s worldwide programme of research into education policy and the impact of its products and services on learner outcomes. He chairs the Pearson Affordable Learning Fund, which aims to extend educational opportunity for the children of low-income families in the developing world. Michael also advises governments and development agencies on education strategy, effective governance and delivery. Prior to Pearson, he was head of McKinsey’s global education practice. He previously served the UK government as head of the Prime Minister’s Delivery Unit (2001–05) and as chief adviser to the secretary of state for education on school standards (1997–2001). Micheal is a visiting professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow and author of numerous books including Instruction to Deliver: Fighting to Improve Britain’s Public Services (2007) which was described by the Financial Times as ‘one of the best books about British government for many years’. Katelyn Donnelly is an executive director at Pearson where she leads the Affordable Learning Fund, a venture fund that invests in early-stage companies serving low-cost schools and services to schools and learners in the developing world. Katelyn is also an active advisor on Pearson’s global strategy, research and innovation agenda, as well as a consultant to governments on education system transformation and delivery. She serves as a non-executive director and strategic advisor for several start-up companies across Europe, Asia and Africa. Previously Katelyn was a consultant at McKinsey and Company and graduated from Duke University with high distinction in economics. Saad Rizvi is Pearson’s executive director of efficacy, leading a global team to ensure delivery of learning outcomes and performance across all the company’s products, services, investments and acquisitions. Previously he was at McKinsey and Company, where he led innovation and strategy work for several Fortune 100 companies. Saad has advised education systems in Asia, Europe, Africa and North America on delivery, reform and systemic innovation. He graduated with distinction from Yale University with degrees in economics and international studies, and currently serves as a non-executive director at a number of companies in the education and technology spaces. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We are grateful to Steve Smith, Jonathan Clifton, David Lefevre, Rohan Silva, Charles Stone, Raheel Ahmed and Prabhu Subramanian for giving their time, thought and input to this essay. We also received comments and advice from our Pearson colleagues Simon Breakspear, Louis Coiffait, Mark Cunnington, Philippa Duffy, Rachel Eisenberg, Charles Goldsmith and Brendan O’Grady. We are particularly grateful for the persistence and thoughts of Vaithegi Vasanthakumar and Tanya Kreisky on all the countless drafts. Needless to say we take full responsibility for any errors that remain. ABOUT IPPR IPPR, the Institute for Public Policy Research, is the UK’s leading progressive thinktank. We produce rigorous research and innovative policy ideas for a fair, democratic and sustainable world. We are open and independent in how we work, and with offices in London and the North of England, IPPR spans a full range of local and national policy debates. Our international partnerships extend IPPR’s influence and reputation across the world. IPPR 4th Floor 14 Buckingham Street London WC2N 6DF T: +44 (0)20 7470 6100 E: [email protected] www.ippr.org Registered charity no. 800065 March 2013. © 2013 The contents and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors only. ii IPPR | An avalanche is coming: Higher education and the revolution ahead CONTENTS Foreword: Lawrence Summers ..........................................................1 Preface: Michael Barber, Katelyn Donnelly, Saad Rizvi ....................3 Executive summary ............................................................................5 The starting point ...............................................................................7 1. Under the surface ...........................................................................9 1. The global economy is changing .......................................................9 2. The global economy is suffering ......................................................11 3. The cost of higher education is increasing faster than inflation .........13 4. Meanwhile, the value of a degree is falling .......................................14 5. Content is ubiquitous ......................................................................16 6. The competition is heating up .........................................................18 2. The components of the successful 20th-century university .......22 Outputs ..............................................................................................24 People ................................................................................................26 The programme ..................................................................................29 The experience ...................................................................................30 3. Unbundling, or the new competition ............................................32 1. Research ........................................................................................33 2. Degrees ..........................................................................................34 3. City prosperity ................................................................................37 4. Faculty ............................................................................................37 5. Students .........................................................................................39 6. Governance and administration.......................................................40 7. Curriculum ......................................................................................41 8. Teaching and learning .....................................................................43 iii 9. Assessment ....................................................................................45 10. Experience ....................................................................................47 4. Seizing the future ..........................................................................49 1. Relevance is not everything .............................................................49 2. Distinctiveness matters ...................................................................50 3. It’s hard to please all of the students all of the time ...........................51 4. Much of the value added won’t be content .....................................51 5. Close the theory/practice gap .........................................................51 6. The three- or four-year, full-time degree course is no longer standard ........................................................................................52 7. Relationships with the city or region are becoming increasingly important ........................................................................................53 8. As the monopoly over awarding degrees breaks down, universities need to consider their true value .....................................................54 New models .......................................................................................55 5. Implications...................................................................................61 Government........................................................................................61 Universities .........................................................................................62 Businesses and organisations ............................................................63 Entrepreneurs .....................................................................................64 Students .............................................................................................65 6. The aftermath ................................................................................67 Bibliography ......................................................................................68 iv IPPR | An avalanche is coming: Higher education and the revolution ahead FOREWORD LAWRENCE SUMMERS An Avalanche is Coming sets out vividly the challenges ahead for higher education, not just in the US or UK but around the world. Just as we’ve seen the forces of technology and globalisation transform sectors such as media and communications or banking and finance over the last two decades, these forces may now transform higher education. The solid classical buildings of great universities may look permanent but the storms of change now threaten them. Of course, competition between universities around the world has been intensifying for