Clean Energy and Water: an Assessment of Services for Adaptation to Climate Change Final Assessment Report Fundación Bariloche December 2011 FB/IDRC Clean Energy and Water: an Assessment of Services for Adaptation to Climate Change – Final Report This document has been prepared by: Gonzalo Bravo (Fundación Bariloche) Osvaldo Girardin (Fundación Bariloche) Sebastián Gortari (Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica) Francisco Lallana (Fundación Bariloche) Gustavo Nadal (Fundación Bariloche) Fundación Bariloche 2 FB/IDRC Clean Energy and Water: an Assessment of Services for Adaptation to Climate Change – Final Report Table of contents 1. Executive Summary............................................................................................. 8 2. Description of problem situations and diagnosis ............................................... 17 2.1 Socioeconomic context ............................................................................. 19 2.2 Energy, hydrologic and climatic framework ............................................... 29 2.3 Identification of problems and priority setting ............................................. 58 2.4 Diagnosis Summary .................................................................................. 65 3. General description of an adaptation strategy to climate change ...................... 71 3.1 Objectives, Strategic Outlines and Instruments ......................................... 71 3.2 Synergy between adaptation and mitigation .............................................. 88 3.3 Financing options ...................................................................................... 90 4. Application of the adaptation strategy to concrete situations ............................. 95 4.1 Feasibility of implementation ..................................................................... 95 4.2 Extrapolation of strategies ......................................................................... 97 5. Issues where support to research and investment is needed .......................... 103 6. Conclusions and recommendations ................................................................ 105 7. Bibliography / References ............................................................................... 108 8. Annexes .......................................................................................................... 113 8.1 Research Centers assisting to the International Workshop ...................... 113 8.2 Climatic data ............................................................................................ 115 8.3 Hydrologic data ........................................................................................ 118 8.4 Renewable resources ............................................................................... 120 8.5 Case Study locations ................................................................................ 123 Fundación Bariloche 3 FB/IDRC Clean Energy and Water: an Assessment of Services for Adaptation to Climate Change – Final Report Index of Figures Figure 2.1 Main dry areas of Argentina affected by climatic variability ..................... 17 Figure 2.2 Urban-Rural Population in Catamarca, La Rioja, San Juan, Mendoza, Río Negro and Neuquén (thousands inhabitants) ........................................................... 19 Figure 2.3 Rural productive units with defined boundaries by land tenure category in Catamarca, La Rioja, San Juan, Mendoza and Neuquén (Thousand Hectares and %) ................................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 2.4 Rural productive units without defined boundaries by land tenure category in Catamarca, La Rioja, San Juan, Mendoza and Neuquén (Number and % of EAP) ................................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 2.5 Land occupied by rural productive units by unit size in Catamarca, La Rioja, San Juan, Mendoza and Neuquén (% land) ................................................... 23 Figure 2.6 Relative number of rural productive units by unit size in Catamarca, La Rioja, San Juan, Mendoza and Neuquén (% EAP) .................................................. 23 Figure 2.7 Evolution of the area occupied by rural productive units in Catamarca, La Rioja, San Juan, Mendoza and Neuquén (million Hectares) .................................... 24 Figure 2.8 Evolution of the number of rural productive units in Catamarca, La Rioja, San Juan, Mendoza and Neuquén ........................................................................... 24 Figure 2.9 Example of a family-scale forestation experience in semi-arid conditions of Río Negro Province .................................................................................................. 28 Figure 2.10 Vegetable production in the Michacheo valley, Neuquén ...................... 29 Figure 2.11 Temperature projections scenario A2 (ºC) ............................................. 31 Figure 2.12 Precipitation variation projections scenario A2 (%) ................................ 32 Figure 2.13 Map of arid conditions of Argentina ....................................................... 33 Figure 2.14 Surface water availability by basin (m3/person.year) ............................ 36 Figure 2.15 Irrigated area by department ................................................................. 38 Figure 2.16 A 4.5kW wind energy converter installed in the Michacheo Valley for water pumping .......................................................................................................... 57 Figure 3.1 Schematic framework representing anthropogenic drivers, impacts and responses to climate change, and their linkages. ..................................................... 88 Figure 4.1 Arid zones map of Latin America and the Caribbean .............................. 99 Figure 4.2 Vulnerability to climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean ..... 100 Figure 4.3 Temperature projections (ºC) ................................................................ 101 Figure 4.4 Precipitation projections (%) .................................................................. 102 Figure 10.1 (a) and (b). Scenarios of Changes in mean annual precipitation (Ratio for 1960-1990 period) corresponding to 2090-2099 period. (a) corresponds to Scenario A2 and (b) to B2. .................................................................................................... 115 Figure 10.2 (a); (b) and (c). Scenarios of Changing in Temperature (in ° C) for 2090- 2099 period compared to 1960-1990 period. Maximum Temperature (a) and Minimum (b) annual mean for Scenario A2 and Maximum Temperature (c) annual mean in Scenario B2. ............................................................................................. 116 Figure 10.3 Limay and Neuquén Rivers Basins. Location of the PRECIS model data. ............................................................................................................................... 119 Figure 10.5 Wind map of Argentina ........................................................................ 120 Figure 10.6 Wind map of Neuquén province and the Michacheo region ................ 121 Figure 10.7 Solar radiation maps of Argentina and the Comahue region ............... 122 (kWh/m2 day) ......................................................................................................... 122 Fundación Bariloche 4 FB/IDRC Clean Energy and Water: an Assessment of Services for Adaptation to Climate Change – Final Report Figure 10.8 Biomass balance for Argentina in relation to average biomass productivity of each biome. ..................................................................................... 122 Figure 10.9 Catamarca and La Rioja case studies localization .............................. 123 Figure 10.10 Michacheo case study localization, Comahue region and small scale forestation experience in semi-arid conditions (Genaro Balvontín) ......................... 123 Fundación Bariloche 5 FB/IDRC Clean Energy and Water: an Assessment of Services for Adaptation to Climate Change – Final Report Index of Tables Table 2.1 Existing and potential rural productive activities in the region under study 28 Table 2.2 Characteristics of underground water resources in the region under study ................................................................................................................................. 33 Table 2.3 Reference water requirement levels by type of use .................................. 34 Table 2.4 Water availability in Argentina and in the region under study ................... 35 Table 2.5 Water uses in La Rioja city area (year 1998) ............................................ 36 Table 2.6 Olive irrigation in La Rioja city area (1998) ............................................... 36 Table 2.7 Irrigated area by province and irrigation method ...................................... 37 Table 2.8 La Rioja province irrigation by species and method (% of hectares) ........ 38 Table 2.9 % of irrigated area by irrigation method and rural productive unit size (Catamarca, La Rioja, San Juan, Mendoza and Neuquén provinces) ...................... 39 Table 2.10 Water source and distribution system by rural productive unit size (number of rural productive units) (Catamarca, La Rioja, San Juan, Mendoza and Neuquén provinces) ................................................................................................