UCLA UCLA Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Impacts of Climate Change on Human Access and Resource Development in the Arctic Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6886b9bs Author Stephenson, Scott Ryan Publication Date 2014 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Impacts of Climate Change on Human Access and Resource Development in the Arctic A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Geography by Scott Ryan Stephenson 2014 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Impacts of Climate Change on Human Access and Resource Development in the Arctic by Scott Ryan Stephenson Doctor of Philosophy in Geography University of California, Los Angeles, 2014 Professor John A. Agnew, Co-chair Professor Laurence C. Smith, Co-chair As the Arctic Ocean transitions to a seasonally ice-free state, efforts to strengthen connections between the Arctic and the global economy are underway. After decades of use primarily as local transport arteries servicing settlements and domestic industries, Arctic shipping routes are being recast as international seaways for export of resources to world markets and as potential alternative pathways for global trade. In addition, global demand for oil, gas and minerals has driven expansion of extractive industries into increasingly accessible offshore locations. However, the degree to which reduced sea ice will realistically enable marine access is not well understood, and numerous economic and political uncertainties complicate resource extraction activities. Understanding the interrelationship of the physical environment and the development goals of state- and non-state actors is vital to determining the role of the Arctic in the future global energy mix. This dissertation seeks to articulate a synoptic picture of future human activity in the Arctic by examining a range of plausible scenarios of climate projections, ii transport logistics, regional politics, and extractive networks. Future marine access projections were performed by quantitative spatial analysis of climate model output and ocean bathymetry in GIS (Chapters 3 and 4). Analysis of the political and economic context of Arctic resource extraction (Chapters 2 and 5) was based on readings of scholarly literature, government reports, and newspaper articles. Climate scenarios illustrate a future of limited marine access in summer for most vessels throughout the 21st century with significantly higher navigation potential for ice- strengthened vessel types. Environmental conditions, along with national and local political structures, comprise the critical spatial context in which dense networks of state-owned and international oil and gas companies operate. While marine access is projected to increase for all climate scenarios, a wide range of futures is possible, and technology and infrastructure often figure more importantly than climatic forcing scenario alone. Therefore, a central conclusion of this dissertation is that Arctic marine access depends strongly upon capital investment in addition to geophysical considerations of sea ice. iii The dissertation of Scott Ryan Stephenson is approved. Lawson W. Brigham David L. Rigby John A. Agnew, Committee Co-chair Laurence C. Smith, Committee Co-chair University of California, Los Angeles 2014 iv Table of Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 2. Collaborative Infrastructures: A Roadmap for International Cooperation in the Arctic ..................................................................................................... 8 2.1. Abstract ............................................................................................................................ 8 2.2. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 9 2.3. Sovereignty anxiety and limits to shared governance ................................................... 11 2.4. Arctic infrastructure: scarcity and investment ............................................................... 18 2.5. Collaborative infrastructures ......................................................................................... 24 2.6. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 29 2.7. Figures ........................................................................................................................... 31 3. Projected 21st-century Changes to Arctic Marine Access ............................................... 33 3.1. Abstract .......................................................................................................................... 33 3.2. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 34 3.3. Methods ......................................................................................................................... 37 3.3.1. Study area ............................................................................................................ 37 3.3.2. Sea ice data ......................................................................................................... 39 3.3.3. Ship-accessible area ............................................................................................ 41 3.3.4. Navigation season length .................................................................................... 44 3.4. Results ............................................................................................................................ 45 3.4.1. Aggregate circumpolar totals for the IMO Guidelines Boundary region ........... 46 3.4.2. Regional results: Canadian maritime Arctic ....................................................... 48 3.4.3. Regional results: Greenlandic coastal seas ......................................................... 50 3.4.4. Regional results: Svalbard and Jan Mayen (Norway) ......................................... 51 3.4.5. Regional results: Russian maritime Arctic ......................................................... 53 3.4.6. Regional results: U.S. maritime Arctic ............................................................... 55 3.4.7. Regional results: international high seas ............................................................. 56 3.4.8. Potential navigation routes: the Northwest Passage ........................................... 58 3.4.9. Potential navigation routes: the Northern Sea Route .......................................... 60 3.4.10. Potential navigation routes: the Trans-Polar Route ............................................ 61 3.5. Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 62 3.6. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 68 3.7. Figures ........................................................................................................................... 70 3.8. Tables ............................................................................................................................. 84 4. Marine Accessibility Along Russia’s Northern Sea Route .............................................. 88 4.1. Abstract .......................................................................................................................... 88 4.2. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 88 4.3. Methods ......................................................................................................................... 94 4.3.1. Study area ............................................................................................................ 94 4.3.2. Marine access 2013-2027 ................................................................................... 96 4.3.3. Bathymetry of the New Siberian Islands ............................................................ 99 4.4. Results and discussion ................................................................................................. 100 4.4.1. Results ............................................................................................................... 100 v 4.4.2. Full NSR transit case studies for 2013-2027 .................................................... 102 4.4.3. Discussion ......................................................................................................... 103 4.5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 108 4.6. Figures ......................................................................................................................... 110 4.7. Tables ........................................................................................................................... 118 5. The Network Allure: Spatial Embeddedness in Arctic Extractive Industries ............ 120 5.1. Abstract ........................................................................................................................ 120 5.2. Introduction .................................................................................................................