III. Major Assumptions 2007-2011 Projections Utilization (Revenue, Ridership, Vehicle Traffic) UTILIZATION Agency Technical Adjustments to Utilization The February Financial Plan utilization levels reflect technical adjustments to the baseline projections that were presented in the November 2007 Financial Plan. These adjustments reflect impacts from the fare and toll increases that were approved by the MTA Board in December 2007, as well as from certain utilization-impacting policy actions and initiatives financed through the Service Enhancement Fund that were also approved by the MTA Board in December1. 2007 Ridership, Traffic and Revenue The 2007 Final Estimate for MTA consolidated ridership is projected to total 2,605 million passengers, while Bridges and Tunnels (B&T) facilities are projected to handle 304 million vehicular crossings. MTA consolidated farebox revenue for the 2007 Final Estimate is estimated to be $3,928 million and toll revenue is estimated to be $1,249 million. These projections of consolidated ridership, vehicular traffic, and fare and toll revenue – based on actual results through September 2007 for MTABC and B&T, and through August 2007 for NYCT, LIRR, MNR, SIR and LIB – are unchanged from the 2007 November Forecast projection. 2008 Ridership, Traffic and Revenue Before factoring in the technical adjustment impacts from the approved 2008 fare and toll increases, as well as those from the service enhancements, the 2008 “baseline” forecasts for ridership, vehicular traffic, and fare and toll revenue remain unchanged from the November Financial Plan’s 2008 Final Proposed Budget. This “baseline” forecast for 2008 MTA consolidated ridership is projected to total 2,648 million passengers, an increase of 44 million trips – a 2% increase – over the 2007 Final Estimate for MTA consolidated ridership. Similarly, B&T facility traffic is projected to increase under this “baseline” forecast to 305 million vehicular crossings, an increase of 1 million crossings – a 0.4% increase – over the 2007 Final Estimate. MTA “baseline” consolidated farebox revenue for 2008 is estimated to be $3,994 million, surpassing the 2007 Final Estimate by $66 million, up 2%, while “baseline” toll revenue is estimated to be $1,251 million, up $1.4 million, or 0.1%, from the 2007 Final Estimate. In actions approved by the MTA Board2, fare and toll increases are scheduled to go into effect in March 2008. NYCT, SIR, LIB and MTABC fares are scheduled to change on March 2. The existing cash, single ride ticket and regular Pay-Per-Ride fares will not 1 The policy actions – which consist of NYCT’s Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Staten Island express bus service (X23 and X24 routes) – and the Service Enhancement Fund initiatives are referred to as “service enhancements.” 2 Fare and toll changes were approved by the Board in December 2007. The Board approved the changes to the MetroCard bonus minimum purchase in January 2008. change, but the Bonus Pay-Per-Ride MetroCard will be changed from a 20% bonus with a minimum purchase of $10 to a 15% bonus with a minimum purchase of $7. The prices of Unlimited Ride MetroCards will also be increasing: the 1-Day Fun Pass is increasing from $7 to $7.50; the 7-Day Unlimited Ride MetroCard is increasing from $24 to $25, and; the 30-Day Unlimited Ride MetroCard is increasing from $76 to $81. The existing $41 price of the 7-Day Express Bus Plus Unlimited MetroCard will remain unchanged. In addition, a 14-Day Unlimited Ride MetroCard priced at $47 will be introduced. With these fare changes, the NYCT Non-Student average fare – the average fare for all riders except those using student passes – is expected to be $1.34 in 2008 after the fare increase, up from $1.29 in 2007. The “Regular Rider” average fare – this average fare excludes utilization for students, express bus riders and those using senior/disabled fares – is also expected to increase, from $1.32 in 2007 to $1.37 after the fare increase. The service enhancements have no material impact on these average fare levels. Fare changes for LIRR and MNR will become effective on March 1, with prices of one- way, ten-trip, weekly and monthly tickets being increased to yield a 3.85% average change in ticket prices. City Ticket fares will increase from $3 to $3.25. The 5% Mail & Ride fare discount on the commuter railroad portion of the joint Monthly Commutation/Monthly Unlimited Ride MetroCard will be retained. B&T facility tolls will increase on March 16. Cash tolls for passenger vehicles on major facilities and the Henry Hudson Bridge will increase by 50 cents (and by $1 for the one- way cash toll on the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge), and will increase by 25 cents at the Rockaway facilities. Cash tolls for trucks will increase, depending on the number of vehicle axles, while trucks using E-ZPass will receive a 25% discount from the cash toll, an increase from the current 20% discount. Even with the fare increase, MTA 2008 consolidated ridership is still projected to grow by 42 million trips, a 1.6% increase, to 2,646 million trips over the 2007 consolidated ridership level. While “baseline” consolidated ridership was expected to increase by 44 million trips over 2007, the 2008 fare increases are expected to reduce ridership by only 4 million trips while the service enhancements will generate 2 million additional trips. 2008 vehicular traffic at B&T facilities is projected to decline by 1.5 million crossings from the 2007 level to 302 million crossings, a 1.5% decline. The impact from the toll increase is 2.7 million fewer crossings, offsetting the 1.2 million additional crossings that are projected in the “baseline” forecast. MTA consolidated farebox revenue for 2008 is estimated to be $4,112 million. In addition to the $66 million in farebox revenue growth over 2007, $114 million is due to the fare increases, while $3 million is expected to be generated by the service enhancements. Toll revenue at B&T facilities in 2008 is estimated to be $1,302 million. “Baseline” toll revenue is expected to grow by $1.4 million over 2007, and an additional $51 million increase is the result of the toll increase; there are no service enhancements affecting toll revenue. 2009 – 2011 Ridership, Traffic and Revenue Before the incorporation of the fare and toll increases, as well as the service enhancements, MTA consolidated ridership, vehicular traffic, farebox revenue and toll revenue for 2009 through 2011 are unchanged from the November Financial Plan. Consolidated MTA ridership is projected to be 2,671 million in 2009. This reflects 4.4 million fewer trips due to the 2008 fare increase and 4.0 million additional trips as a result of the service enhancements. Consolidated MTA ridership grows to 2,696 million in 2010 and to 2,722 million in 2011. The impact of 2008 fare increase is incorporated in these ridership levels, adversely reducing ridership by 4.4 million in 2010 and by 4.5 million in 2011. Additional ridership resulting from the service enhancements is also included in the 2010 and 2011 consolidated ridership estimates, accounting for 4.1 million additional trips in both 2010 and 2011. These ridership changes are net reductions in overall growth; annual ridership does not decline from year to year during the financial plan period. Consolidated farebox revenue for 2009 through 2011 is greater than the November Financial Plan estimates due to the 2008 fare increase and the service enhancements, while B&T toll revenue is greater than the November Financial Plan estimates as the result of the 2008 toll increase. The fare increase is projected to generate $141.0 million in 2009, $142.3 million in 2010 and $143.8 million in 2011; the service enhancements are expected to bring in $7.6 million in 2009 and $7.7 million in both 2010 and 2011. The toll increase is projected to result in additional B&T toll revenue of $62.8 in 2009, $62.9 million in 2010 and $63.0 million in 2011. Baseline ridership, traffic and revenue from fares and tolls do not include impacts from fare and toll increases after 2008. The planned 2010 fare and toll increase is reflected below the line under Policy and Gap Closing Actions. MTA Consolidated Utilization MTA Agency Fare and Toll Revenue Projections, in millions Including the Impact of 2008 Fare & Toll Increases and Service Enhancements 1 2007 2008 Final Adopted Estimate Budget 2009 2010 2011 Fare Revenue Long Island Bus 2 - November Baseline $39.365 $39.562 $39.760 $39.958 $40.158 - 2008 Fare Increase 5 0.000 1.021 1.232 1.238 1.245 $39.365 $40.583 $40.992 $41.196 $41.403 Long Island Rail Road - November Baseline $476.913 $483.400 $488.988 $492.890 $497.276 - 2008 Fare Increase 5 0.000 14.671 17.531 17.672 17.881 - 2008 Service Enhancements 6 0.000 (0.092) (0.140) (0.141) (0.142) $476.913 $497.979 $506.379 $510.421 $515.015 Metro-North Railroad 3 - November Baseline $473.775 $483.801 $494.691 $506.807 $518.877 - 2008 Fare Increase 5 0.000 8.497 10.494 10.783 11.036 - 2008 Service Enhancements 6 0.000 1.050 1.400 1.400 1.400 $473.775 $493.348 $506.585 $518.990 $531.313 MTA Bus Company - November Baseline $137.502 $140.834 $144.161 $147.246 $150.646 - 2008 Fare Increase 5, 7 0.000 3.403 4.181 4.270 4.369 $137.502 $144.237 $148.342 $151.516 $155.015 New York City Transit 2, 4 - November Baseline $2,796.932 $2,842.889 $2,863.255 $2,886.097 $2,909.702 - 2008 Fare Increase 5 0.000 86.599 107.466 108.323 109.210 - 2008 Service Enhancements 6 0.000 2.345 6.361 6.412 6.464 $2,796.932 $2,931.833 $2,977.082 $3,000.832 $3,025.376 Staten Island Railway - November