SERBIA’S FIRST NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN D R A F T SERBIA’S FIRST NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN D R A F T Belgrade, November 2015 SERBIA’S FIRST NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN Published by: Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection Expert team: Vladimir Đurđević, Team Leader Jasna Plavšić, Water management Expert Branislava Lalić, Agriculture Expert Ružica Stričević, Agriculture Expert Goran Jaćimović, Agriculture Expert Ana Firanj, Agriculture Expert Saša Orlović, Forestry Expert Dejan Stojanović, Forestry Expert Dejan Radovic, GIS Expert Aleksandar Mladenović, Biodiversity Expert Bojan Stanisavljević, Biodiversity Expert Đorđe Mitrović, Financial and Economic Issues Expert Edited by: M.Sc. Danijela Božanić Design and illustration: Tatjana Kuburovic COORDINATED BY: Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection 4 SERBIA’S FIRST NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN Introduction Climate change as a consequence of anthropogenic activities, primarily by means of increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can now be unambiguously detected and quantified through measured changes in many aspects of the climate system. Based on numerous studies, analyzes and reports, it is clear that today broad agreement exists on the far-reaching consequences if the global community fails to achieve future changes within the limits necessary for continued development of our global society. The long-term goal of the international community is to limit the rise in mean global temperature to 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels by means of significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Observed climate changes lead to changes in the environmental, social and economic indicators, i.e. to changes in the overall conditions in which contemporary society lives across the globe and also in Serbia. It is believed that if further changes remain within the limits which have been determined as the goal, the mitigation of negative consequences will be possible through the appropriate and timely measures of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. On the other hand, in the case of continued uncontrolled rise in global temperatures and changes in other elements of the climate system, the consequences will be on a significantly higher scale, while adaptation will require additional efforts and additional financial investments, which can significantly slow down and hamper the progressive development of society. The aim of adaptation is to reduce the potential negative effects of climate change via planned change in the natural and socio-economic systems and to maintain the functioning of the system, or if possible, to improve efforts where such potential exists. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recommends the elaboration of National Adaptation Plans (NPA) as one of the efforts to plan for the adaptation to climate change. The process of develop- ing an adaptation plan should ensure the assessments of vulnerability and risk in relation to future climate change and, based on those assessments, define possible options for adaptation and, in particular, identify measures relat- ed to medium and long-term needs. National Adaptation Plans should improve existing reporting on the process of formulating and implementing adaptation measures and contribute to integrate that adaptation into relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions. The methodological preparation of the NPA will primarily follow the methodology defined by the instructions of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change. SERBIA’S FIRST NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN 5 General goals and objectives include: • The synthetic analysis of future risks and vulnerabilities in selected sectors (water resources, agriculture, for- estry and biodiversity), compared to scenarios of future climate, as outlined in the First and Second Report of the Republic of Serbia under the UNFCCC, which will allow the identification of priority adaptation measures, primarily those characterized as no-regret and low-regret measures. In the selection of adaptation measures, one of the criteria will also be ensuring synergies between the future development of the sector and proposed measures. • A synthetic review of the proposed adaptation measures in sectors that have been identified as the most vul- nerable, as well as the analysis of possible progress in the implementation of these measures which have been proposed in the First and Second National Report of the Republic of Serbia under the UNFCCC. • The assessment of loss and damage as a result of long-term changes in climate conditions in Serbia, and as a result of weather and climate extremes, whose intensity and frequency can be associated with the observed climate change over the past decades. Estimates of the losses and damage will be based on documented events and published analyzes and reports. • Proposal for priority adaptation measures and corresponding analysis of their successful implementation in the future. Analyses of individual adaptation options in addition to, if possible, the direct economic benefits, will be based on non-economic indicators (e.g. in the field of biodiversity) as well as the potential social bene- fits of their implementation. • Identification of opportunities and constraints for the integration of adaptation measures in the applicable sectorial strategies, but also in other relevant national plans. Observed Climate Change During the period 1960-2012 in Serbia a significant increase in mean daily temperature was observed with an average temperature increase of 0.3° C per decade. The dominant trend of increase was recorded for the period June-July-August, at 0.57 ° C per decade. After 1990, in only four years the negative anomaly of mean annual tem- perature was reported, and eight out of ten warmest years were recorded after the year 2000. The statistically rel- evant trend of precipitation was recorded at just a few meteorological stations. On the annual level, most stations showed a positive trend (17 out of 25 analyzed stations), but only two stations recorded a significant positive trend, while the other stations showed a negative trend in precipitation. The average trend for the stations with positive values ​​is 12.47 mm per decade, and the average trend for the stations with negative value trends is -6.8 mm per decade. Although there are no significant trends in the quantity of precipitation in Serbia, we must emphasize the fact that Serbia has faced several serious precipitation trends since 2000. The most prominent were those recorded in 2000, 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2012. Analysis of climate extremes also shows that in recent decades there have been significant changes in the frequen- cy and intensity of extreme events, particularly those extreme events which are the result of high temperatures. Concise conclusions of changes of extreme values in Serbia are: • A significant increase: summer days on all stations with an average rate of 5 days per decade since 1960; tropi- cal nights at most of the stations, an average of 1 day per decade; Monthly maximum values of daily maximum temperatures and monthly maximum values of daily minimum temperatures at a large number of stations; duration of heat waves, on average 4 days per decade; • An increase at most stations, but not significantly, of the length of the vegetation period, on average 4.5 days per decade; 6 SERBIA’S FIRST NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN • A reduction at most stations, but not significantly, in the number of frosty and icy days, on average 2 days per decade for frosty days and 1 day per decade for icy days; • An increase at the majority of stations, but statistically significant only at a few, of the indexes of strong and extreme precipitation: the number of days with an accumulation of more than 20 mm, and accumulated pre- cipitation exceeding the 90th and 99th percentile, with an average of 0.3 days per decade, 10 mm per decade and 6.5 mm per decade, respectively. Scenarios of climate change According to both scenarios, A1B and A2 outlined in detail in the First and Second report of the Republic of Serbia under the UNFCCC that predict further increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which would be close to growth trends observed in recent years, by the end of this century, we can expect further rises in tem- perature. During the period 2011-2040 and 2041-2070 the increase in temperature is higher in the A1B scenario, 0.5-0.9 ° C and 1.8-2.0 ° C respectively, than according to the A2 scenario, 0.3-0.7 ° C and 1.6-2.0 ° C, but by the end of the century, (2071-2100) the change in temperature obtained by scenario A2 is in the range of 3.6-4.0 ° C and ex- ceeds the value obtained by scenario A1B, which ranges from 3.2-3.6 ° C. Warming is the most pronounced during the summer and autumn seasons. The change in precipitation under both scenarios compared to the base period 1961-1990 was positive during the period 2011-2040 and is reduced according to negative values over​​ the entire territory of Serbia by the end of the century. According to the A1B scenario, over the course of three periods, 2011- 2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, changes in annual precipitation range from + 5% to -20% up to the end of the centu- ry. According to the A2 scenario, changes range from + 20% to -20%. The possible deficit is the most pronounced during the summer season. The precipitation deficit is higher in the A1B scenario during the period 2011-2070, while in the period 2071-2100 the climate is drier in the A2 scenario. These results fit in with the possible extent of changes in the territory of the Republic of Serbia, which was obtained on the basis of results from the database of the European project ENSEMBLES.1 1 ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/docs/Ensembles_final_report_Nov09.pdf SERBIA’S FIRST NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN 7 AGRICULTURE Agriculture In the area of agricultural production, which accounts for about 10% of the total gross domestic product of the Republic of Serbia, the entire national economy is very sensitive to all factors that affect agriculture.